--:-- Alex Osula: Hey, this is Jessica Mendoza, host of The Journal podcast, our show about money, business, and power. If you're looking for more deeply reported stories like we share every day, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com slash thejournal, all lowercase, to subscribe now.
--:-- Alex Osula: A House vote expected tonight would reopen the U.S. government after a record-breaking shutdown. Plus, what a divided Fed means for next month's decision on interest rate cuts. It's unusual that you see this kind of fracturing of the Fed, and it has to do with three big mysteries the economy faces right now. And it's the end of an era for the U.S. penny. It's Wednesday, November 12th. I'm Alex Osula for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.
--:-- Alex Osula: The House is assembling for an expected vote this evening on a bill that ends the government shutdown. The package extends funding for much of the federal government through January and includes funding for the full year for the Agriculture Department, Military Construction, and the Legislative Branch.
--:-- Alex Osula: For more on what's in the bill, Anvi Bhutani joins me now from Washington. Anvi, what else is in this spending bill?
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: Yeah, there's a couple of interesting nuggets hidden in the spending bill. One of them is that there's language that would guarantee the reversal of federal layoffs by the Trump administration during the shutdown. And it also means that there'll be no more mass firings until the end of January. And the bill will make sure that everyone that missed their paychecks, was furloughed, will get their back pay. This was a hot point of controversy throughout the shutdown. So this is a win for federal workers.
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: There's other specific language around providing more security for lawmakers. So after the shooting of Charlie Kirk, Congress decided that they should put in hundreds of millions more in security for House and Senate members, Supreme Court justices, and other executive branch officials.
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: There are also potential $500,000 payouts that might go out to several Republican senators. There were eight Republican senators who had their phone records investigated during a Justice Department probe a couple of years ago while the Justice Department was investigating President Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: And this language means that they might get $500,000 in damages. But both Democrats and Republicans have criticized this and don't think it's appropriate. And House Speaker Mike Johnson said today that Republicans would introduce a bill next week to repeal that provision.
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: Now, I want to talk about the health care subsidies that were such a point of contention between Democrats and Republicans throughout the shutdown.
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: Did Democrats get the health care subsidies they'd been fighting for?
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: The Democrats did not get any kind of language on health care subsidies in this current spending bill. They have made a deal with the Senate majority leader John Thune to get a vote on a proposal for extending healthcare subsidies by mid-December.
--:-- Anvi Bhutani: But the vote is contingent upon the Democrats getting some Republicans to agree with them, which we're not sure if they will do. And additionally, there's no pledge on the House side. So the House of Representatives won't necessarily be voting on any kind of extension of health care subsidies.
--:-- Alex Osula: That was WSJ reporter Anvi Bhutani. Thanks, Anvi.
--:-- Alex Osula: Thank you so much.
--:-- Alex Osula: For now, at least, the government is still shut down. And that means flights continue to be disrupted. Abigail Roman, a 31-year-old venture capital investor from Denver, told us she canceled a trip this week because she was worried about delays.
--:-- Alex Osula: After a trip on Sunday that had her sitting on the tarmac at LaGuardia for two hours. I was supposed to go to a longevity conference in West Palm Beach. And my boss was like, you don't really want to go to that, I feel like. And I don't want you to get stuck in Florida.
--:-- Alex Osula: When the government does reopen, flights won't immediately go back to normal. Alison Pohle covers travel and tourism for the journal and is here to tell us why.
--:-- Alison Pohle: Well, it's not like the airlines can snap their fingers and all of a sudden just put pilots and flight crews in the right place. They've been displaced. The FAA put an order out that said a certain percentage of all air traffic needed to be cut at 40 major airports.
--:-- Alison Pohle: So when the government does reopen, we'll be in a situation where they will need to phase the flight traffic back in. How long can we expect travel disruption to go on? We don't totally know, but at least a few days.
--:-- Alison Pohle: They're going to have to phase in the air traffic, but they're going to want to do it quickly because Thanksgiving travel is coming. Both the airlines and the FAA officials and Transportation Department officials have said it's going to be several days. It's not going to be instant.
--:-- Alison Pohle: How big a disruption has this been in the scheme of things? If you look at the percentage of all flights that were canceled over this period of time, it averaged about 6 percent, according to Cerium, which is an aviation data provider.
--:-- Alison Pohle: So there have definitely been times in the past where things have been worse, but there have been definite pockets of chaos and they've been unpredictable. So over the weekend, we saw at LaGuardia, for example, and in Detroit, Over half of all flights were delayed.
--:-- Alison Pohle: So if you were one of those travelers, one in two travelers had a massive delay on their flight. Abigail says she has a flight planned to Kansas City on Monday for work, and she's not expecting any issues.
--:-- Alison Pohle: I still have to travel on Monday, and I don't expect that isn't going to change. I just think that after the government reopens, I'm sure everything will kind of go back to normal.
--:-- Alex Osula: Allison, are airlines anticipating lingering effects that could put a dent in their bottom line?
--:-- Alison Pohle: Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian went on CNBC today and he said, yes, the shutdown is going to have a financial impact on the carrier and on other airlines, but it's not going to come close to wiping out their profits.
--:-- Alex Osula: That was Journal reporter Alison Pohley. Thanks, Alison.
--:-- Alex Osula: Anytime.
--:-- Alex Osula: We're exclusively reporting that the Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether two proxy advisory firms, Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis, violated antitrust laws.
--:-- Alex Osula: That's according to people familiar with the matter. The investigation is in its early stages and is looking at how the two companies steer clients on hot-button issues such as climate-related shareholder proposals.
--:-- Alex Osula: Glass-Lewis says it received a letter from the FTC and declined to comment further. Institutional shareholder services declined to comment.
--:-- Alex Osula: The White House is also discussing an executive order that would curb the influence proxy advisors have on shareholder votes, as we mentioned on this morning's show.
--:-- Alex Osula: Coming up, is inflation or the labor market a bigger threat to the U.S. economy? The Fed isn't sure. That's after the break.
--:-- Alex Osula: Hi, this is Gunjan Banerjee. And this is Telus Demos. We're reporters at The Wall Street Journal and the hosts of WSJ's Take on the Week.
--:-- Alex Osula: Take on the Week is a weekly show that gives listeners a leg up in the world of markets and investing. From the Fed's moves to market bubbles, we dive into the biggest deals, key players and business news ahead.
--:-- Alex Osula: If you're looking for more news and tools that can help you navigate the markets, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com forward slash tick on the week to subscribe now.
--:-- Alex Osula: There's a split emerging within the Federal Reserve, whether it's inflation or the labor market that poses the greatest threat to the U.S. economy. That's making the possibility of further interest rate cuts look murky.
--:-- Alex Osula: The Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros, joins me now.
--:-- Nick Timmeros: Well, nothing has really changed in the weeks since then, and that's part of the problem. Normally, the way that these divisions get reconciled is there's some data that come along that tell people, all right, maybe, you know, this is what we should be focusing on right now.
--:-- Nick Timmeros: People are now relying on anecdotes and surveys. And so you can sort of retreat to whatever evidence you want that supports your view. So jumping ahead to this December meeting, how is this split among Fed officials expected to play out?
--:-- Nick Timmeros: It's unusual that you see this kind of fracturing of the Fed. And it has to do with three big mysteries the economy faces right now. One, will tariff-driven price increases actually be a one-off? Or could they lead to more persistent price pressures?
--:-- Nick Timmeros: Two, is job growth in the economy slowing because businesses don't need workers, that demand is falling? Or is it because they can't find workers that supply is falling?
--:-- Nick Timmeros: How you come out on both of those questions could determine you know what you think we should do with interest rates. And then finally how close do you think interest rates are to a sort of sweet spot that restricts or spurs growth?
--:-- Nick Timmeros: If you think inflation is a bigger problem, then you maybe want to have a more restrictive interest rate setting. And what do traders think? Do they suspect that a December rate cut is likely given this division?
--:-- Nick Timmeros: Yes. Traders still see a December interest rate cut as more likely than not but not nearly as overwhelming a prospect as before Powell made those comments at the October 29th press conference.
--:-- Alex Osula: That was WSJ Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timoros. Thanks, Nick.
--:-- Alex Osula: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Alex Osula: The Dow closed above 48,000 today for the first time after gaining 0.7%. The S&P ticked higher, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.3% as big technology stocks like Palantir, Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Tesla dropped.
--:-- Alex Osula: In Kiev, Ukraine has suspended its justice minister. And its energy minister resigned in the latest fallout from allegations of corruption in the country's energy sector.
--:-- Alex Osula: The investigation threatens to undermine support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, both at home and abroad, as Russian forces advance with new momentum on the battlefield, and he struggles to shore up backing from Ukraine's Western allies.
--:-- Alex Osula: The justice minister said he agreed with the suspension and that he would defend himself.
--:-- Alex Osula: And finally, after 232 years, the U.S. pennies' time is up. The U.S. Mint made the last ever U.S. pennies in Philadelphia this afternoon.
--:-- Alex Osula: This is U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach pushing the button. I'm going to do a countdown on this one. This is the last one.
--:-- Alex Osula: President Trump ordered an end to penny production earlier this year. And the government has been winding down the money-losing process where the U.S. spends 3.7 cents to make each penny.
--:-- Alex Osula: The Treasury Department says the federal government will save $56 million a year in production costs.
--:-- Alex Osula: But you don't have to throw away your copper coins. The 300 billion or so pennies that remain in circulation will still be legal tender.
--:-- Alex Osula: Speaking of copper, earlier today we dropped the second episode of our Alternative Economic Indicator series about copper. For decades, the metals price has corresponded to how the economy is doing. We dig into why that is and whether it's still true.
--:-- Alex Osula: That episode is in the What's News feed now. And that's What's News for this Wednesday afternoon.
--:-- Alex Osula: Today's show was produced by Pierre Bien-Aimé and Zoe Kolkin with supervising producer Tali Arbel.
--:-- Alex Osula: I'm Alex Osula for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening. Thank you.
