--:-- Alex Ossola: What's driving the markets this week? What's on investors' minds as they look ahead? Find out in 10 minutes or less on The Markets podcast from Goldman Sachs. Listen now.
--:-- Alex Ossola: President Trump releases a new proposal to end the war in Gaza. Plus, with an expanded trade blacklist, Trump targets China's tech sector. It's very significant. This is potentially going to add thousands of companies to the entity list, and a lot of them are in China and in critical supply chains used by U.S. companies. And the credit market is humming, but some on Wall Street are concerned that a fallout is coming.
--:-- Alex Ossola: It's Monday, September 29th. I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Today, the White House released a 20-point peace plan for Gaza, calling on Hamas to release all remaining hostages within 72 hours and leaving open the possibility of Palestinian statehood. The proposal is billed as the U.S. vision to end the almost two-year war in Gaza.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Addressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a press conference at the White House this afternoon, President Trump reiterated his support for the Israeli leader. If Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible, they're the only one left. Everyone else has accepted it. But I have a feeling that we're going to have a positive answer. But if not, as you know, maybe you'd have more full backing to do what you would have to do.
--:-- Alex Ossola: The proposal also calls for more humanitarian aid for the enclave, while a Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza is completed. Analysts say that there are some points that would be hard for Hamas to accept, especially those insisting Hamas can't have any control of Gaza and that its infrastructure, including tunnels, must be destroyed.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Congressional leaders from both parties headed to the White House this afternoon with little incentive or time to reach a deal that would avoid a government shutdown less than 48 hours before the deadline. President Trump agreed to the meeting over the weekend after canceling an earlier planned sit-down, But the White House and congressional Republicans signaled little change in their stances and have strong political reasons not to give ground.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Democrats, meanwhile, say Republicans will get the blame for any shutdown since they declined to come to the table until the last minute. If a deal isn't reached, the government will shut down for the first time since Trump's first term at 12.01 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 1st.
--:-- Alex Ossola: That likely government shutdown is also looming over markets at the start of the week. Those fears weighed heavily on the dollar and cut treasury yields. Gold hit another record. Major U.S. indexes were higher. The Nasdaq led the gains rising about half a percent The S 500 climbed 0 percent and the Dow inched roughly 0 percent higher U credit markets are running hot maybe too hot Investors are gobbling up corporate debt, which has some on Wall Street worried that the market is ripe for a reckoning.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Two sudden bankruptcies in the auto world of a subprime lender and a parts supplier this month are making bond investors and analysts worry that it could be a sign of wider fallout. Matt Wirtz covers credit for the journal and is here now with more.
--:-- Matt Wirtz: So far that fallout I mentioned has not happened, but what are some elements of the current environment that are making traders worry? If you think about it like where you are in a baseball game, investors are a little bit worried that we're getting to the later innings. They don't see us at the end of the game yet, but credit has been relatively easy to get. It's been easy for companies and individuals to borrow money. So that means there's a lot of money that's been borrowed. And in some cases, that money is not going to get paid back.
--:-- Matt Wirtz: Another area of credit growth that we've seen a lot is private credit. Big funds, companies like Blackstone and Apollo and KKR, they've been pumping a lot of money into the system. And we're starting to see some increase in default on the margin. And that has people worried. If it's priced so high, why are people so eager to buy? The answer is interest rates. Interest rates right now actually are still lower than they were in 2007, right before the last big credit crisis.
--:-- Matt Wirtz: However, interest rates right now, between 4% and 5%, they're relatively high compared to where they were from 2010s up until 2022. They were near zero. You're getting 1%, maybe. And right now, the yield you're getting from buying a corporate bond or private credit or investing in a private credit fund, it's relatively high compared to where it was in 2020 or 2021 or 2018.
--:-- Matt Wirtz: So the thing that people are worried about is the market getting pushed over the edge. What might it take for that to happen? The answer to that is always, unfortunately, we don't know. Crises are only self-evident in the rearview mirror. What we do know is that the more credit grows, the more debt is borrowed, then the more violent that correction is likely to be.
--:-- Alex Ossola: In other news, video game maker Electronic Arts has said it would go private in a $55 billion deal. Investors include Saudi Arabia's public investment fund, private equity firm Silver Lake, and Jared Kushner's investment firm Affinity Partners. The deal represents the largest leverage buyout of all time, eclipsing a record set in 2007.
--:-- Alex Ossola: People familiar with the matter said that the parties had been in discussions on and off for months before talks accelerated earlier this month. Some of the people said that bankers at JPMorgan Chase, which is providing $20 billion in debt financing, received a call less than two weeks ago to get involved EA stockholders will receive a share in cash a 25 premium to EA share price at Thursday close the day before the journal reported the video game maker was in advance talks on the deal.
--:-- Alex Ossola: And Charlie Javis, founder of startup Frank, has been sentenced to more than seven years in prison for defrauding JPMorgan Chase. She sold her startup to the megabank for $175 million and provided bogus evidence that her company had millions of customers that didn't actually exist. Javis maintained her innocence during the whole trial, but she acknowledged that she, quote, made mistakes.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Today, the judge said that JPMorgan Chase was fraudulently induced to buy Javis' startup and sentenced her to 85 months in custody. Javis' attorneys say they plan to appeal her conviction and ask that she be granted bail while that process plays out.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Coming up, how a Trump administration effort to crack down on China's tech sector could end up being a headache for U.S. companies. That's after the break.
--:-- Alex Ossola: President Trump said today that he is slapping a 100 percent tariff on films made outside of the U.S., reiterating a threat he made earlier this year. Trump, who didn't provide details on the tariffs, has argued that foreign countries have undermined the U.S. film industry by using tax incentives to get Hollywood productions to shoot overseas.
--:-- Alex Ossola: It's unclear how film tariffs would work because movies aren't physical goods that travel through ports like most products subject to tariffs. Since most big-budget event films earn most of their revenue overseas, some Hollywood executives have said Trump's plan could hurt the film industry if other countries responded with reciprocal tariffs.
--:-- Alex Ossola: The Trump administration says it is clamping down on companies that pose national security risks by adding them to a trade blacklist. Under the new rule, which takes effect tomorrow, subsidiaries of companies that are on a Commerce Department blacklist known as the Entity List would also be subject to trade restrictions.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Many industry executives see China's tech sector as the main target. WSJ tech policy reporter Amrith Ramkumar joins me now.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: The list itself isn't new, but this part about having it affect subsidiaries of these companies is new. What is the administration's goal with this change?
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: The Trump administration is trying to crack down on sanctions evasion techniques that companies around the world use, specifically a lot of companies in China and Russia, countries they're most worried about. They definitely don't want American technology falling into the wrong hands in the artificial intelligence race.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: Basically, U.S. companies need special licenses to do business with any company on the entity list. So what clever companies would do is create a subsidiary still owned by the parent company to get around those restrictions. They're trying to shut that loophole off.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: And it's very significant. This is potentially going to add thousands of companies to the entity list and a lot of them are in China and in critical supply chains used by U.S. companies. Very few companies have a fully domestic supply chain and we know the administration is trying to change that.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: But Chinese companies and subsidiaries are ingrained in a lot of these key areas like semiconductors or even pharmaceuticals. So companies are going to have to spend a lot more on compliance and use a lot of technology and other tools to figure out what exposure they have here.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: Just because a company is on this list, does it mean that American companies can't work with them at all? Or is it just a tighter restriction?
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: It's a tight restriction. U.S. companies would need to apply for licenses and have those approved to be able to work with any company on the list. But this administration has been pretty tight with how they approve licenses. And in general, that can take a long time and require a lot of work.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: There will be a 60-day period where a lot of general licenses will be approved to let companies adjust. But that's two months. And then I think a lot of people will be buckling down to make sure that they're not doing that much business with people on the list.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: As we know, this is the Trump administration, too. things could change. But from where people stand now, they're saying it's a big change from where we have been.
--:-- Alex Ossola: What does this mean for the ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S.? The trade question is the big unanswered one. You would imagine that this will figure into trade talks somehow and that China might think about some retaliation. China has put U.S. companies on its versions of similar lists. They've also gone after companies like NVIDIA. So it definitely just adds another variable into the mix.
--:-- Amrith Ramkumar: That was WSJ reporter Amrith Ramkumar. Thanks, Amrith. Thanks for having me.
--:-- Alex Ossola: And finally, Seattle was once mainly known as the birthplace of Starbucks, Boeing, and Grunge Music. But in recent decades, the Seattle metro area has undergone an accelerating transformation into one of the premier U.S. tech hubs. Now, as Amazon, Microsoft, and companies across the city have shed tens of thousands of employees, that virtuous cycle of growth is wobbling.
--:-- Alex Ossola: Journal tech reporter Sebastian Herrera told our tech news briefing podcast what that looks like on the ground. I talked to this one manager at a local coffee shop, and she told me that recently she started to see people with Microsoft and other tech companies on their resumes applying to become baristas. But Seattle is not necessarily a doom loop story.
--:-- Alex Ossola: What's happening more there is it's a place that's really in transition. As tech jobs go away, it's grappling with what that means and how that can move forward. Seattle has other strong industries like aerospace that are there, like with Boeing. So Seattle has plenty of positivity going on, but there is a lot of anxiety among tech workers there.
--:-- Alex Ossola: To hear more from Sebastian, listen to tomorrow's episode of Tech News Briefing.
--:-- Alex Ossola: And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bien-Aimé and Rodney Davis, with supervising producer Jana Heron. I'm Alex Ossola for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.
