--:-- [Discussion begins with the hosts]
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: This is In Conversation from Apple News Today. I'm Duarte Giraldino. And I'm Shamita Basu.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Every weekend, we're taking you deeper into the best journalism on Apple News.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: Over the past few weeks, the U.S. and other NATO member states have been clear. They will not directly intervene in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: We are not going to put U.S. troops in Ukraine to fight the Russians on the ground or in the air. We're not going to put British soldiers directly in conflict with Russian soldiers.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: That would lead to a war across Europe. No, NATO will not get involved militarily in Ukraine. Let me be clear. These are totally defensive moves on our part.
--:-- Shamita Basu: We have no intention of fighting Russia. Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is becoming dire.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: In the past few days, Russian missiles have hit multiple civilian targets, including markets, homes and a hospital.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Ukrainian officials say some areas are running low on essential things like food and medicine.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: The UN estimates one million people have fled the country.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Ukraine and Russia have agreed to temporary local ceasefires. This is going to allow civilians to evacuate and vital supplies to get around the country.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: Still, many Ukrainians are calling on the West to do more, to put boots on the ground or to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: On today's episode, you'll hear two conversations.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: One with Zach Beecham, a senior correspondent at Vox who covers global politics and foreign policy.
--:-- Shamita Basu: He lays out the role that nuclear weapons are playing here.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: No responsible American policymaker could take the risk of the destruction of the American homeland and arguably the entire planet in order to stop the conflict in Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But we start with my conversation with Daria Kalinyuk.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: She's a Ukrainian activist and the executive director of Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Action Center.
--:-- Shamita Basu: You might have heard her earlier this week in a video clip that went viral.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: You are not coming to Kiev, Prime Minister. You are not coming to Lviv. Because you are afraid. Because NATO is not willing to defend. Because NATO is afraid of World War III.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But it has already started. And these are Ukrainian children who are there taking the hit.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: I see that my family members, that my team members are saying that we are crying. We don't care what to run. This is what is happening, Prime Minister.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Daria told me what she was feeling at that moment.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: I knew what will be the response, but I felt angry and I felt betrayed.
--:-- Shamita Basu: When Boris Johnson was speaking at the press conference, I was getting text messages. People were sitting in places nearby Kyu with two kids asking me how to evacuate, and then they disappeared.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And that is a very surreal situation.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And then Boris Johnson in Warsaw saying that Ukraine is strong, that Ukrainian people are defending themselves.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Well yeah Ukrainian people are strong but the Ukrainian children don't deserve to die in bomb shelters and in a couple of days there will be no supply with food no supply with medications and there will be no supply with basic needs for people they will be dying not because of the missiles but they will be dying because of there will be no possibility to satisfy basic human needs
--:-- Shamita Basu: What specifically are you asking of the world and of Western powers?
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: I'm in Poland where the air defense systems of NATO are being placed.
--:-- Shamita Basu: They are placed all across the eastern flank of NATO.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And they can provide the protection of our sky in Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: They can hit Russian missiles.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: They are saying, well, we don't want to hit Russian troops. We don't want to hit Russian planes.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But these missiles are over the territory of Ukraine, the sovereign nation, and the sovereign nation is begging help with hitting these missiles.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: You know, when we are talking, I have text messages from my friend who is now in Irpin, nearby Kiev, in a car with three newborn babies, trying to evacuate these three newborn babies from Kiev.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And it's just one of many, many examples of what's actually happening on the ground.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And so it is inhuman. It is non-Christian. It's against any humanity.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And we are begging the West to protect our sky, to be able to evacuate these children.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Is it too much we are asking for?
--:-- Shamita Basu: The pushback from the West has been that declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine would essentially amount to a declaration of war.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Now, that move could trigger a nuclear response from Russia.
--:-- Shamita Basu: What do you say to that when we talk about the risk of a nuclear event?
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Don't call it war. Call it helping to protect the sky. For Ukraine. In order to evacuate Ukrainian children And provide basic humanitarian assistance
--:-- Shamita Basu: I'm saying that the risk of nuclear event Can happen any moment now
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: When Russians are shooting their missiles The most heavy findings Which are happening now in Ukraine Are in Energodar, Zaporizhia region Which is near one of the largest Nuclear power plants in Ukraine
--:-- Shamita Basu: And any second missile can hit that nuclear power plant
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: So it is immediate risk for NATO now and for the entire world.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Less than 48 hours after we spoke, Russia's assault near that power plant caused a massive fire.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Russia is now in control of Europe's largest nuclear power plant.
--:-- Shamita Basu: International monitors have said, so far, there are no signs that radiation has leaked.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Daria also wants the West to more aggressively crack down on Russian oligarchs.
--:-- Shamita Basu: These are the wealthy people who have profited from their close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Some of them have served at high levels in his government.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Some of them have helped to finance his grip on power and global influence
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Part of Darya goal with the Anti Center is holding these people accountable
--:-- Shamita Basu: And you can hear that in her exchange with Prime Minister Johnson
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: You're talking about more sanctions, Prime Minister, but Roman Abramovich is not sanctioned.
--:-- Shamita Basu: He's in London. His children are not in the bombardments.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: His children are there in London.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Putin's children are in Netherlands, in Germany, in mansions.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Where are all these mansions seized? I don't see that.
--:-- Shamita Basu: The person Daria just mentioned, Roman Abramovich, is a longtime supporter of Putin.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: He is also the owner of the Chelsea Premier League soccer team, which he now says he's going to sell.
--:-- Shamita Basu: He, like so many Russian oligarchs, own homes all around the world, including in London.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: In fact, London is so popular among these oligarchs that it's often referred to as Londongrad.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Now, historically, Western countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have allowed these Russian oligarchs to own homes, yachts, businesses and travel freely within their countries.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Daria is urging the West to crack down.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And this week, President Biden said that's exactly what he's going to do.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Tonight, I say to the Russian oligarchs and the Krupp leaders who built billions of dollars off this violent regime, no more.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Following those comments, the Justice Department announced it's creating a task force to go after the oligarchs.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: We're joining with European allies to find and seize their yachts, their luxury apartments, their private jets.
--:-- Shamita Basu: We're coming for you, ill-begotten gains.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: As Daria explains, this move is necessary because while Putin may be public enemy number one, it's the people around him that keep him in power.
--:-- Shamita Basu: He is a Hitler for us. But there is a system surrounding him, very concrete people who are oligarchs, Putin minions, who created Putin and who allowed him to grow into Hitler.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And these oligarchs, they have a network of operation at the West.
--:-- Shamita Basu: They use Western shell companies.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: They invested tons of money, billions of money robbed from Russian people into luxurious mansions, yachts, private jets.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And they are all in NATO member states.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Their family members, they freely reside in NATO member states.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Their family members are not in the mob shelters.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: They don't care.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And the West was tolerating all this bloody money from these Kremlin oligarchs coming to their soil and intoxicating their soil.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: They, therefore, are now guilty for what is happening in Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: These oligarchs, they are war criminals.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: They assisted Putin to do now genocide in Ukraine, and they have to be treated accordingly.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Their assets have to immediately cease and confiscate it.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Their families have to be kicked off NATO member states, and they have to go back to Russia.
--:-- Shamita Basu: We're seeing ordinary Russians taking to the streets in Russia to protest.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: They're risking arrest.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And also the Russian economy is also being squeezed by sanctions.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Do you think that there could be enough internal unrest in Russia that it could be the beginning of Putin's undoing?
--:-- Shamita Basu: If there were millions standing up, there could be not enough police to surrender them and to put them into jails.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: But Russian soldiers and mothers of Russian soldiers decide that it's better to go and fight in Ukraine and die killing Ukrainian people than to go to protest and go to jail.
--:-- Shamita Basu: So they are in deep fear.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And I'm, you know, I'm Russian speaking.
--:-- Shamita Basu: I read all different statements from even Russian democracy fighters.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And they're saying, what can we do? We are helpless.
--:-- Shamita Basu: We can't do anything with our Putin.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And it's such a helplessness.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And some of Russians many of Russians they look propaganda they watch tv sponsored by russian state which is insane which just creates like a parallel reality for them
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: But there are much more russians who understand what is happening and they are not standing up
--:-- Shamita Basu: They will not stand up until they will see that they cannot get cash from their bank account and they cannot buy anything from their stores.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And probably then they will try to stand up in millions, but it will take time.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And Putin knows that.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Therefore, he is now using heavy missiles in order to destroy as much as he can Ukraine and Ukrainians and paralyze us before Russians will wake up.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Given the level of military aggression that we're seeing in Ukraine right now, do you think the West misjudged Putin?
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Absolutely.
--:-- Shamita Basu: They were trying to use diplomacy to work with Putin.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: It's impossible to use diplomacy to work with Putin.
--:-- Shamita Basu: The West was keeping doing businesses.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: The West was deeply caring of their own businesses, which had cooperation with Russians.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But, you know, at the moment when the West started to put forward business interests, then moral and humanity and basic values, the West became complicit and enabled this evil.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Now we have to come back to the basic human senses and values of compassion and of the need to help of the person who is in need and of the country which is in need.
--:-- Shamita Basu: The West is saying, well, we can't, we are afraid of World War III.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: But I want to say that the World III has already started, just not everybody realized that yet.
--:-- Shamita Basu: What does the world look like if Putin wins?
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: It is the end of democracy.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's a different world.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Forget about rule of law.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It ceased to exist at the moment when Russia started bombarding Ukraine.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: There will be no way to return democracy as an idea if Ukraine will fail.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Other countries which are totalitarian or authoritarian regime will just follow Russians.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And they will understand what is possible and what is feasible.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Forget about free world.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: There will be more oppression.
--:-- Shamita Basu: There will be more suffering.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: There will be more oppression of freedom of speech.
--:-- Shamita Basu: There will be propaganda.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Just imagine that entire world will turn into Orwell 1984
--:-- Shamita Basu: When we will not have possibility to receive information which is truthful information
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: It's very dangerous what's happening now in Ukraine for the entire world.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And if you look on what principles America was built, it were the values and principles of humanity and compassion and the principle that you need to help to the person which is in desperate situation.
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: And if this value will not be followed, if you will not receive what we are asking for, there will be more evil in the world and in America as well.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Are you worried that your own personal safety could be at risk because you are so outspoken at this time, so close to the border?
--:-- Daria Kalinyuk: Comparatively to what my friends and team are having in Ukraine, I feel safe.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And honestly, if I'm able to deliver my message to the Western world, to Western leaders, and it will be heard and the West will act, I don't care to die.
--:-- [Discussion continues with Zach Beauchamp]
--:-- Shamita Basu: Daria Kalinyuk is just one of many Ukrainian voices, pleading for someone to do something to stop this war from escalating, to save Ukrainian lives.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: But so far, Western leaders are saying further intervention is just not possible.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Zach Beauchamp covers global politics and foreign policy for Vox.
--:-- Duarte Giraldino: I asked him to respond to Daria's concerns.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But first, I wanted him to talk about Russia's threat of nuclear and how that threat is controlling the dynamics.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Nuclear weapons, we are all sort of familiar with the basic way that they're supposed to work, right? Mutually assured destruction.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's that buzzword from the Cold War that means if one country uses nuclear weapons, the other one will be able to retaliate, and so nobody wants to have a nuclear war because it's impossible for anybody to win.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So that is part of the reason why the U.S. and other major international powers have not even really seriously considered any kind of intervention, direct intervention, in the Ukraine war.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Because if the U.S. were to get into a shooting conflict with Russia, a direct one, it wouldn't necessarily escalate to nuclear conflict.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: But there's never been an open, large-scale conflict between the U.S. and Russia since the advent of nuclear weapons.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And that is a terrifying prospect because once a war starts, there are so many scenarios by which it could escalate to a nuclear conflict.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Accidents, miscalculations, one side thinking the other one was using their nuclear weapons, a whole host of really scary scenarios.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And no responsible American policymaker could take the risk of the destruction of the American homeland and arguably the entire planet in order to stop the conflict in Ukraine.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: But at the same time, if you think about that logic, this is the flip side that some scholars point out about nuclear weapons, Russia knew this going in, right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: They realized that they have a big nuclear shield that they can use to protect their forces and basically threaten anyone who might want to obstruct their intervention in Ukraine.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So it's not that nuclear weapons are the reason that Russia is intervening.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's not like that's the purpose of the war, but it gives them a layer of security and a sense of not invincibility exactly, but a sense of protection.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Let's talk about some of the actions that the U.S. and NATO allies have expressed that they're not willing to do.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Just talk through them.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has repeatedly asked NATO to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And others have floated the idea of sending boots on the ground there.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: You have written that either of these things would be catastrophic.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Can you explain why?
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Yes. So people often misunderstand what a no-fly zone is, right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: One analyst that I've seen pointed out to people describing it as like a magical umbrella that prevents planes from flying there.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: That's not how it works, right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: What has happened in the previous times where the United States has employed no-fly zones is that you send American aircraft into the airspace of whatever country that you're trying to deny flight over, right?
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: That's the point. No-fly zone. No aircraft. fly in that area.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And that means that if you want to really enforce it, you want to make this thing an actual no-fly zone as opposed to an on-paper no-fly zone, you have to shoot down planes that are there.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: That means Russian planes, right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: A no-fly zone is not just like a neutral intervention in the conflict.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: It's not, you know, something you do to just protect civilians.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It is saying you're trying to stop Russia from using one of its major military advantages in the war on Ukraine.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: It is innovating in the conflict on Ukraine's side, basically declaring war on Russia.
--:-- Shamita Basu: That carries all sorts of different risks of nuclear escalation.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: And, you know, the aim would be to protect Ukraine and Ukrainian civilians, but the thing is that Ukraine is on the planet too, and nuclear weapons have the potential to annihilate the planet.
--:-- Shamita Basu: My co-host, Duarte Geraldino, spoke with Ukrainian activist Daria Kalinyuk, and during that conversation, she was calling on the West to take tougher action against Russia.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: And she was also calling on NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but she was saying as a humanitarian measure, not a declaration of war.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Is that something that could plausibly play out well?
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: All respect to Ukrainians on the ground, and I understand why President Zelensky and activists like the one you spoke to are calling for this kind of measure because their country is at existential risk, right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: It could very well be the case, and may even be likely to be the case, that the Ukrainian government will be toppled by Russia.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: You know, you want all kinds of help when that's the case.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But there is no difference.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: There's a distinction without a difference to say a no-fly zone for humanitarian purposes or for the purposes of making war on Russia.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And the reason is that it's enforced the same way, shooting down Russian planes.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So you can say what you're doing is trying to protect civilians.
--:-- Shamita Basu: What you're actually going to be required to do to protect said civilians is to kill Russians.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: That's war on Russia.
--:-- Shamita Basu: There is no difference here.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: It is a matter of semantics and the Russian government see it as such which would carry significant risks of nuclear escalation
--:-- Shamita Basu: Again Ukrainian civilians win a nuclear war Nobody wins a nuclear war I don't want to sound like I using hyperbole because I not right We're talking the survival of the planet, the survival of the species.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: This is not an exaggeration.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's not a game.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: This is what nuclear weapons can do.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And not just that, but that level of destruction, I think, to most people is literally unfathomable, right?
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: I don't think many people really wrap their minds around what that means.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Yeah, I mean, it's almost impossible to conceive of.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: What it looks like in the immediate term is hundreds of millions of deaths.
--:-- Shamita Basu: That's the immediate consequence.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: You're talking about this very, very fine line that the U.S. is having to walk here in order to show support but also not trigger further action from Russia.
--:-- Shamita Basu: I mean, one thing that we did hear Biden commit to in his State of the Union address is sending troops to NATO's eastern flank, right, to support NATO allies.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: What is that meant to accomplish and why draw the line there very specifically and clearly?
--:-- Shamita Basu: So I thought that was maybe the most notable part of the entire State of the Union because what Biden is doing was a really smart thing that you do in a nuclear crisis called signaling.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Because part of a nuclear crisis is not being able to understand the other side's intentions.
--:-- Shamita Basu: You don't know what they're going to do, which forces you to take measures that may be perceived as threatening.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So when the U.S. sends troops near Russia, you can see why the Russians might be like, are they preparing for some kind of counterattack?
--:-- Shamita Basu: So what Biden is doing is not only explaining the deployment, but he's explaining the reasons behind it and laying out extremely clear red lines for how and when the U.S. would get involved in a conflict.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So what he said there in that speech is, we are not sending troops to Ukraine.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But let me be clear, our forces are not engaged and will not engage in the conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: But he also said that any attack on NATO allies would be met with a U.S. response.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And as I've made crystal clear, the United States and our allies will defend every inch of territory that is NATO territory.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: With the full force of our collective power, every single inch.
--:-- Shamita Basu: That's a clear message to Putin, as clear as it gets.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Don't attack any Western forces or any Eastern flank NATO allies, right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: No Baltics, no Poland, none of it.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: You can forget it. You keep this aggression contained or else.
--:-- Shamita Basu: The logic at work here is that you need to be able to prevent the war from getting bigger and many more people dying without triggering nuclear escalation.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: And so that is a matter of calculation and a matter of basically prudential judgment about where it makes the most sense to tell the Russians they can and can't go.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And the NATO alliance gives the clearest possible dividing line.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Either you're in the alliance or you're out of the alliance.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Let's talk about signaling on Putin's part.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: What's the consensus among Russia watchers, Putin watchers about what Putin is signaling right now to the world?
--:-- Shamita Basu: So Putin has been very clear about his willingness to threaten and saber-rattle when it comes to nuclear weapons and expansion.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: He said so in his speech declaring war on Ukraine, basically, that anyone who considers intervening will be met with something along the lines of consequences like you've never experienced before.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And then he said, I hope you hear me.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: And yes, we all heard you.
--:-- Shamita Basu: You're talking about nuclear weapons. We get it.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Right?
--:-- Shamita Basu: And that's part of the reason why I think the U.S. administration has been so hesitant to get involved.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Right? The Americans know that Putin is signaling this and they don't really want to test his seriousness given the consequences.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And then Putin put his nuclear weapons on high alert.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: What does that mean exactly?
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's not clear.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Some nuclear experts have not seen any actual changes in the nature of Russia's nuclear forces.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But on the whole, it seems that what Putin is saying is we are very likely to consider nuclear use if you get involved in the conflict. Stay out.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: So when one country, when Russia in this case, has nuclear weapons, is using it as a sort of shield, trying to deter other countries from escalating or getting involved further, what options does that leave the rest of the world in responding to Putin's threats?
--:-- Shamita Basu: So you can do a lot of different things that aren't direct military intervention.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: That's the line you can't cross.
--:-- Shamita Basu: There are a few things that are also unwise that could raise the risks really highly.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: A few examples that have been done include really harsh and punishing sanctions.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's really hard to overstate how painful these sanctions are.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: The kind of sanctions the world deployed against Iran for its nuclear program, the difference is that Iran was not tightly integrated into global markets beforehand, whereas Russia really was.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And so international sanctions have much more bite when you depend much more on being part of the global market.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Russia imports the vast majority of basic goods, a lot of the things that it needs.
--:-- Shamita Basu: Being cut off from international markets has caused severe pain in Russia.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: One example I've heard, and it's just like a really striking little fact, is that some mortgage rates in Russia have gone up to 15%, 20%.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And if you think about what a normal home mortgage rate is, yeah, that's how painful things are in Russia.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: And an indicator of the sort of full-scale financial crisis that's being precipitated by international sanctions that have been unexpectedly strong.
--:-- Shamita Basu: So this isn't a minor thing, right?
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: It's tanking the Russian economy.
--:-- Shamita Basu: It's destroying one of the foundations of Putin's legitimacy among his people in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: Again, it's just this really, really fine, nuanced line as to what kinds of things are likely to trigger backlash and which ones aren't.
--:-- Shamita Basu: And not everybody agrees about where to draw those lines.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: I think that's one of the really, really hard policy issues in this particular crisis.
--:-- Shamita Basu: But it is worth trying to parse that out because the consequences of getting it wrong are so massive.
--:-- Zach Beauchamp: You can find the latest coverage of the Russia-Ukraine war in the Apple News app.
