--:-- Anka Desai: This is a special edition of the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Anka Desai with the World Debate, which asks what can stop the war in Gaza? As 28 countries, including many of Israel's allies, demand an immediate end to the conflict, does international condemnation make any difference? And what role can Donald Trump play in ending the fighting? Joining us is a panel of experts, including Palestinian economist Raja Khalidi.
--:-- Raja Khalidi: There are only two powers that would appear on the globe capable of getting that ceasefire and the end to the war. Obviously, the American president and secondly, the Israeli people.
--:-- Anka Desai: And senior member of the Likud party in Israel, Michael Kleiner.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: Israel is interested in stopping the war. Israel didn't start the war. The moment we will get back the hostages and Gaza will be demilitarised, Israel will stop the war.
--:-- Anka Desai: As well as our international editor, Jeremy Bowen. So let's join our host for the debate, Nick Robinson.
--:-- Nick Robinson: There is one question being asked with increasing intensity here in the UK and right around the world. What can stop the war in Gaza? We'll address that question with voices from Israel and the Palestinian territories and those beyond who've got knowledge and experience of the region and of international diplomacy. Alongside me throughout are international editor, Jeremy Bowen.
--:-- Now, for some, the answer to the question that we're answering tonight is all too simple. Hamas should release the hostages seized in Israel 653 days ago on October 7th, 2023, the day it murdered, raped and kidnapped, attacking the old and the young, the sick and the healthy, peace campaigners as well as soldiers.
--:-- Others say, no, whatever happened on that terrible day, it is Israel which must now stop its attacks on Gaza, attacks that have claimed the lives of more than 2,100 Palestinians so far this month alone, and more than 59,000 lives since October 7th, according to figures from the Ministry of Health in Gaza, which, like every public body in Gaza, is run by Hamas.
--:-- Now, that, in a sense, has been the argument which has raged ever since that fateful day. But what changed this week is that the governments here in the UK, the governments of 27 other countries and the EU agreed a statement declaring that the war in Gaza must end now because they wrote in a joint statement, "the suffering of civilians in Gaza has reached new depths."
--:-- So let's begin our debate tonight by introducing our panel and asking briefly, each in turn, whether that condemnation of Israel by the UK and by those other countries can, will, make any difference. First, joining us from Westminster, Baroness Arminka Helic, who was a senior advisor to Foreign Secretary William Hague. She came to the UK as a refugee in the 90s with her family when war broke out in Bosnia. Baroness Helic, do you have any belief, any hope, that those words of condemnation will make any difference?
--:-- Baroness Arminka Helic: These are very strong words, but if previous statements made in a similar vein are anything to go by, whether they were made in January or May or in June or July this year, then this will have no effect whatsoever. Words are strong, condemnation is strong, but the effect has so far been negligible. I see no reason why on this occasion we would have a different result.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Let's turn next to Israel. Joining us from Tel Aviv is Michael Kleiner, a senior member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing Likud party. Is that analysis right, Mr Kleiner, that they're not listening in Jerusalem?
--:-- Michael Kleiner: Benjamin Netanyahu will not be listening to these words. I don't know if the words are that war should stop. Israel is interested in stopping the war. Israel didn't start the war. The moment we will get back the hostages and Gaza will be demilitarized, Israel will stop the war. So I don't know what this declaration is changing because we are interested anyway to end this war. And this declaration will not change the condition. We will not give up on demilitarization of Gaza. We will not leave Hamas in Gaza and we will not give up the release of the hostages.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Joining us from the city of Ramallah in the West Bank, part of the Palestinian territories, is Raja Khalidi, a development economist who is coordinator of the UN's program of assistance to the Palestinian people. We have not heard much hope so far that these words will make any difference, Mr Khalidi. Do you think they'll make a difference?
--:-- Raja Khalidi: No, they can't and they won't. They can't because I think they're coming maybe a year too late. Ceasefire was something that was irrelevant as a demand, global demand a year ago. But today, what is required is much more than that. An end to the war and an end to the other acts of attempted ethnic cleansing against Palestinians. So that's the first thing.
--:-- But more importantly, there are only two powers that would appear on the globe capable of getting that ceasefire and the end to the war. Obviously, the American president, whose fickleness leads us to not really be able to know what that might lead to. And that's shown over six months where the war has really been worse than it was the last six months of the Biden term. And secondly, the Israeli people. And I think that's where it really will make a difference. If the Israeli people tolerate the continuation of the sort of policies that this government has led for the last two years, then I think we have a problem. And until that changes, a ceasefire might be possible, but it's not going to be an end to this struggle.
--:-- Nick Robinson: There is a ferocious debate going on within Israel that has been ever since October 7th about the right way forward, which is why we have a second voice on our debate tonight from Tel Aviv. Professor Yuli Tamir is one of the founders of the peace movement Peace Now. She was a minister when the Israeli Labour Party was in power, serving Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert. Do you think the voices of the critics of Benjamin Netanyahu within Israel, of the people perhaps, as we just heard from Mr Khalidi, will make a difference?
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: Well, I'm sure that we will make a difference. We are fighting in the streets, and I think though the war is going on and the hostages are still there, the public opinion in Israel is changing. And you can't see it right now because we are governed by a government that is actually not expressing the voice of the people, but the voice of a small group of political activists who are very much to the right of the Israeli public. So we have to go through the painful process of election and internal struggle in order for our voice to be heard. But I think this voice really exists and it's important to acknowledge that the criticism does not come only from outside, it comes from within. A lot of people in Israel are terrified and very, very painfully reacting against what the Hamas did on October 7th and support the war in the first stages. But now we all believe that this has gone too far. Too many civilians are being injured and killed. Too many people are stabbed to death and the hostages are there.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Well, finally, in our panel here in Broadcasting House with me, alongside me is Lord Macdonald, Simon Macdonald, head of the Foreign Office until 2020, the top diplomat, top civil servant then, but also a former British ambassador to Israel. We're hearing quite a lot of scepticism that the words of the international community can make much difference at all. Do you think there's a chance they will?
--:-- Lord Simon Macdonald: No. I think the 28 countries will discover pretty smartly that their words don't really have traction in Jerusalem. Part of the problem is that although they are frustrated, even angry with what is happening in Gaza, they all at the same time continue to believe in the state of Israel and Israel's right to defend itself. So there's an awkward balance to try to strike. The only international players that really cut through in Jerusalem are the United States, as already mentioned, and some of the Arab countries. Israel is interested in peace with its neighbours. They could make representations, no doubt, in private that I think would have a greater chance of cutting through.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Well, we're going to come to the role of the United States. We'll come to that debate inside Israel. Also, the debate, if there is one, taking place within the ranks of Hamas about what they should do. But I want to begin where this week, in a sense, began, Jeremy Bowen, with this statement. Now, a cynic would say this is a statement written by politicians designed to get pressure off their back from their electorate saying you're not doing enough. You talk to these guys. Is there more hope than that, that these words make much difference?
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: No, I think that they feel that it's important that they say these words. I think they are aware of the reality that the only foreign opinion that really counts with the Israeli government is the opinion that comes out of the White House. But also, and I think this applies to Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy and to the Labour government, they're under pressure from their own backbenchers who believe a lot more could be done, that there are tools they have chosen not to use. One of them, for example, being recognition of a Palestinian state as a way of putting pressure on Israel and signaling they want to get towards this so-called two-state solution in Palestine alongside Israel. And also a series of legal measures that could be taken based on the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice that said that the occupation, the whole occupation of Palestinian territories is illegal. and that Britain and other countries could therefore take a series of sanctions and measures that would hurt Israel and put pressure on them.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Well, let's talk about that agenda to start with. The agenda, in other words, of what the government here in the UK and other Western governments could do. Baroness Helic, you used to advise a British Foreign Secretary. Correct?
--:-- Baroness Arminka Helic: Correct.
--:-- Nick Robinson: If you were back in that old job, taking the list that we just been given by Jeremy Bowen, a list that we heard in debates in the House of Commons and the House of Lords about this, what might you recommend if you wish to up the pressure?
--:-- Baroness Arminka Helic: Well, I'm sure that this is already being done and that the Foreign Secretary and the Prime Minister will have been presented with a list of options. And those options would go from sort of lower level to the upper level, the most drastic level of things that could be done. And they would have to judge it on the basis of what can make a difference, number one. And number two, how that is going to affect the relationship between our country, the United Kingdom, and our allies, including Israel. But I think we have now reached a stage where all options have to be on the table. We ought to rewire the way we think about this conflict and imagine that this is a country which is not an Israel which is our friend and we stood by it in October rightly so because they were under terror attack, but imagine it's a different country that is starving people, that is killing children, that is destroying homes, that is destroying the health system, that there is no water, that there is no food. What would we do? That should be our starting point.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Well, give us as a starting point for policy, though, which of the things that you just heard Jeremy Bowen outline, is it pursuing action on alleged war crimes in the International Criminal Court? Is it an extension of the arms embargo? Is it a sanction against more Israeli ministers? What things would you recommend? And then I'll come to our other panellists to say how they'd react to that.
--:-- Baroness Arminka Helic: I think personally that all of those options ought to be on the table, including recognition of a Palestinian state, not that it would have any immediate effect. It would not open the borders. It would not stop bombing. It would not stop starvation. It wouldn't do it, but that should be on the table.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Well, let's pursue that one for a second then and let's bring in Raja Khalidi, who's on the line from Ramallah on the West Bank. If overnight the British government, presumably in alliance with the French, the Canadians with others, was to say, right, we formally recognise the existence, not in theory, we formally recognise the existence of a Palestinian state, would that bring any comfort to Palestinians? Would it make any difference to whether the war ends?
--:-- Raja Khalidi: I don't think it would either. I mean, it might bring some moral self-justification to Palestinians, but it certainly won't make any difference in any sense to the political struggle or the war. However, recognition, I think, for it to be more than a hollow diplomatic sort of recognition of the Palestinians' eventual right to a state, I think there's ways that even through some basic economic measures, multilateral, international, economic measures, that the idea, the concept of an eventual sovereignty of Palestine in the form of a state to be yet negotiated, etc., alongside Israel. But the elements, the economics and the economic elements, which are symbolic as well as essential to sovereignty. And I'm thinking of international loans, trade status and even monetary affairs should be internationalized, I think. And that would then give some meaning to the idea of recognition, because you're recognizing a state of Palestine, which is responsible for these huge challenges to come. And which is, of course, dedicated to resolving disputes peacefully and which has a democratic constitution, all of those things. But that, I think, is a way forward.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Yes. Obviously, we have the question of Israel to deal with. Well, let's turn to Israel. We've got two Israeli guests today. But first of all, Michael Kleiner, a senior member of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party in Israel, were Western governments, more of them, because some have already, to say, right, we recognise the state of Palestine, theoretically to start with while negotiations go on. Would that put pressure on the Israeli government? Would it simply be dismissed?
--:-- Michael Kleiner: No, I guess it will get the opposite reaction because Israel will understand that you are blaming the victim, accusing the victim, but we got used to it. Through even before Israel was established in the 2000 years as a Jewish people. So we know that we are always accused for every atrocity. The only guilty in this war is Hamas. Hamas started the war. Hamas didn't want to stop it. Israel was ready to stop this war at any moment. Every Palestinian child or a civilian or uninvolved that was killed is to blame on Hamas. The same as in Second World War, millions of Germans were killed and nobody blamed Britain or the United States. Sure. But everyone blamed Adolf Hitler for starting the war. Even the atrocities of the Soviet Union done against Germans were on the shoulders of Hitler and not on the shoulders of Stalin.
--:-- Nick Robinson: You make your point very clearly, Mr Kleiner. We'll come in a second to Professor Tamir, who is also Israeli but has a very different view of the world to yours, to react. But you're listening to this, Lord Macdonald. Let's imagine you're back in your job advising a foreign secretary as the top diplomat in the country. He or she says, does it make any difference if we recognise the state of Palestine to this?
--:-- Lord Simon Macdonald: I would urge the Foreign Secretary not to recognise and for two main reasons. One, there are criteria by which a state is judged before recognition. Basically, three: a permanent population, which Palestinians clearly have; second, defined borders, which they don't have; and third, an agreed government, which they don't have. So technically, they don't make the grade. And second, what happens next? The act of recognition doesn't really amount to very much. It would incense the Israelis. It would incense the Americans. And people would ask, well, where's the beef? What's the follow-up? And the follow-up is very difficult to deliver.
--:-- Nick Robinson: We'll come to what other measures then it might be possible to take in a second. But Professor Tamir, Yuli Tamir, would that reaction that we heard a second ago from Michael Kleiner be the reaction of all Israelis? Or would some say, well, no, that is an important symbol of the fact the international community believes still in the idea of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution?
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: First of all, luckily, many Israelis don't follow what Mr Kleiner says and do take responsibility for what is happening now in Gaza. I don't think we are to blame for the opening of the war, but certainly what is going on, we share the responsibility for a lot of the horrible things that are happening there. Second, we're narrowing the question for the recognition of a Palestinian state. The big issue is whether we have to deal with a political solution or whether power is the solution for the conflict. I'm convinced that power is not going to solve the issue. We are not going to obliterate the Hamas. We cannot win this war only by power. So the question is, can the UN, can the EU, can the world offer means of political negotiations that both sides will benefit from in order to move forward? Otherwise, we're stuck in violence against violence and everybody is suffering, including, unfortunately, our poor hostages in Gaza, whose government, our government, are not really interested in freeing right now.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Before we move to what this whole conversation might mean for the occupant of the White House, who everyone, I think, in this discussion agrees is the key player here. Jeremy, one of the things on your list was an arms embargo. Now, David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, was on the Today programme only this morning, listing all the things that his government had done to express its unhappiness with what was happening in Gaza and insisting that pretty much all the arms that could be used in this conflict have already been banned from being exported. There are still some who say no, no, there's more that could be done. There are some exceptions that have been made, including things that involve other contracts like the ones for example involving the F-35 American war plane which Britain contributes parts to.
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: Those also are political gestures. In fact, Israel's war effort depends on supplies from the United States. That is what matters to them. That's where they get the bulk of their lethal equipment from. Under the Biden administration, when there were large formations of Israeli troops moving through Gaza, there was an extraordinary air convoy of supplies at all times coming into Israel. The Americans kept them going. They keep the tap flowing. So for the rest of the world, it's about making those political moves, I think, rather than actually affecting Israel's power.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Baroness Helic, we've had a conversation for a few minutes now, which pretty much everybody, whatever their perspective, is saying, well, all these things are gestures. They might be important gestures. They might be signals you want to send. None of them are actually going to do what this debate asks, which is stop the war. Do you accept that?
--:-- Baroness Arminka Helic: Yes, I do. But on the other hand, I think we can't stop talking and we can't stop working and we can't stop seeking a solution. And, for example, I have just urged the Foreign Secretary to travel to Gaza. He and his counterparts ought to make a visit and take international, independent international journalists who would report on what is going on there. Because this may be just what is needed for the public here in this country, elsewhere in the United States, so they can speak up the way that your Professor Tamir was talking about voices of people of Israel who are different from the voices that the government projects. What they will see is that actions that have been taken so far have produced no effect whatsoever. Nothing has changed. Condemnation, strong language, etc. It is all good. It looks like the end of term tidying up today by the 27 plus United Kingdom. Will it actually make any difference on the ground in July and August? I doubt.
--:-- Nick Robinson: And now, Lord Macdonald, you have a public rather than just a private voice in the offices in Whitehall. Is your brutal conclusion that, yeah, we just have to accept? Actually, we can't stop the war in Gaza. We can talk about it all we like. We can angst all we like. We may rage about it, but we can't stop it.
--:-- Lord Simon Macdonald: Yes, but we can talk to the Americans, particularly to the president. One of the big problems, though, in dealing with President Trump on this issue is that Mr Netanyahu is one of his favourite international leaders right now. One of the big achievements for Donald Trump this year was the joint American raid on the Iranian nuclear programme.
--:-- Nick Robinson: And you suggesting are you that in a sense Donald Trump doesn't want to fall out with someone that he had success in a joint enterprise with?
--:-- Lord Simon Macdonald: That's not the sort of thing he does.
--:-- Anka Desai: I'm Anka Desai and you're listening to a special edition of the Global News Podcast, where we bring you the World Debate, which is asking what can stop the war in Gaza. Coming up, our panellists examine what Hamas is looking for in a peace deal and whether the American president has the power to end the conflict.
--:-- Raja Khalidi: Trump can say to the Israeli Air Force over there, stop, and they all turn back home. And when Trump says, I want my citizen back, the hostage that was an American citizen, and he gets that person back, means that he controls the seat.
--:-- Anka Desai: We'll be back with more from the debate right after this.
--:-- [Musical interlude / Ad break]
--:-- Nick Robinson: Now let's rejoin Nick Robinson with the World Debate. Let's just listen to Donald Trump because in recent weeks he has spoken again and again of his hopes that another deal between Israel and Hamas is possible to produce a ceasefire and the release of some of the remaining hostages.
--:-- Donald Trump [Audio clip]: I think there's a good chance we have a deal with Hamas during the week. You know, we've gotten a lot of the hostages out, but pertaining to the remaining hostages, quite a few of them will be coming out. We think we'll have that done this week. Not definitely. There's nothing definite about war and Gaza, but there's a very good chance that we'll have a settlement, an agreement of some kind this week and maybe next week if not.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Jeremy Bowen often plays the role on the Today programme of us playing clips like that and saying, yeah, I believe it when I see it. He keeps saying it, it keeps not happening.
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: Well, Trump's technique is trying to talk something up and then push and hope it's going to happen. And it hasn't happened. And why hasn't it happened? It's not happening because a lot of it comes down to one key point in the negotiations that have been taking place in Doha, in direct negotiations. And that's essentially that Hamas has made pretty clear they will give all the hostages back if Israel leaves Gaza. And Israel has said, you can give the hostages back, but we're not going to leave Gaza unless we decide to. It's going to be up to us. And let's not forget, there was actually that multi-phase ceasefire deal that came in at the end of Joe Biden's period in office, where the second phase was meant to end with that. And then on March the 18th, the Israelis took the decision to end that ceasefire by launching a series of very loud, noisy, destructive, deadly attacks on Gaza. And since then, there have been more people displaced in Gaza than the entire population of Manchester here in the UK. And thousands more have been killed.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Michael Kleiner, as a supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu, indeed president of the Supreme Court of the Likud Party, the governing party. Do you accept that description that there could be a deal and has been the possibility of a deal over many weeks, but Israel won't pay the price necessary for it?
--:-- Michael Kleiner: No, I don't accept it. On the contrary, it was both Mr Blinken who blamed always Hamas that at the last moment was torpedoing any agreement. And now in the United States, all the people involved say that Israel made a lot of concessions, shown a lot of flexibility, and Hamas is the one torpedoing the agreement. Israel is ready to withdraw from Gaza provided it will be demilitarized and the few leaders of Hamas who are left will be deported in an agreement. And then it is for the sake of the Palestinians also because as long as Hamas is in Gaza there will not be any construction and they will continue to be in ruins.
--:-- Nick Robinson: But will you listen to Donald Trump, Mr Kleiner, if he becomes frustrated with you, and we've seen what he's like when he's frustrated, haven't we? We saw when there was talk about Israel and Iran, he said they don't know what the F they're doing. He is capable of losing his temper. Do you fear sometimes that our great sponsor, the President of the United States, is going to lose it with your Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and tell him, get on with it?
--:-- Michael Kleiner: There are always some people, New York Times is very hopeful for this to happen, but it doesn't happen because on the same page, both want to end the war, both want to continue the Abraham agreement that will not continue until this war is ended and Gaza will be demilitarized and the hostages will come back home. And let me remind you that it started, the 7th of October, was a reaction to the Biden-Netanyahu agreement with the Saudis to start a negotiation to continue the Abraham agreement.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Just to remind people who don't know, forgive me interrupting, Mr Kleiner, but people who don't know what the Abraham Accords are, I don't mean to be rude by interrupting, but in other words, that was the arrangement. A big and important deal done under Donald Trump's first term in the White House, in which Israel had proper relationships with the Gulf states. And there was a great dream that that would include Saudi Arabia as well. And you're saying that Hamas wanted to torpedo that.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: President Biden, in the meeting with Netanyahu, agreed on this. Saudi said that they are going to it. And then this started to torpedo the continuation of this peace agreement.
--:-- Nick Robinson: I want to continue discussing what Donald Trump should do, if you'll forgive me, Mr Kleiner. Forgive me, sorry. Thank you for contributing. I want to carry on with what Donald Trump might do or should do. Let me bring in a voice of the Palestinians. Now, just to stress, Raja Khalidi is a development economist. He's not a politician in the Palestinian Authority of the West Bank and certainly not a supporter of Hamas in Gaza. But he is someone who understands Palestinian thinking well. What is the greatest hope of what the American president might do if he's to make a difference?
--:-- Nick Robinson: I mean, I'm going to have to, before I'll answer that, but you answered another couple of questions which I think are circumventing some essential issues here. Please.
--:-- Raja Khalidi: One thing is that, especially in terms of the idea of what the likelihood is of this EU position having an effect, I think that we avoid discussing the fact that Israel is part of a US, EU, and wider security, technological arms, I won't say empire, but it has certainly global reach. And it's also part of the financial underpinning. So the Palestinians obviously are out of that. And the Arabs, by the way, are largely out of that. They maybe want buy-in now. So this is, if you want to talk about why the Europeans are not doing anything that has effect, then you have to look at that to begin with.
--:-- Second thing I think that we haven't talked about, nobody has really mentioned, is that this idea that whether it's a 2,000-year struggle and conflict or a 75-year one, the point is now we're supposed to be talking about ending that conflict, not another 30 years of postponing it. So the problem is that the Western governments, unlike their peoples, who are in the streets saying it's something else, have bought in and continue to buy into the Israeli narrative, not only of the right to self-defense infinitely and regardless of the crimes that it might entail, but also in the idea that Palestinians have no agency.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Yeah, but forgive me, Raja Khalidi, I want to bring you to what Donald Trump might do, because you've made your points clearly. Donald Trump will look at those things. He'll look at the financial.
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: I think he'll give that. He doesn't look. The only positive difference between Trump and Biden from the Palestinian vantage point so far is that Trump is not an ideological Zionist. And so he won't be easily seduced by the sort of messianic ideas that some of his Christian evangelist supporters and many in government in Israel spout.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Let me just spell out what you mean by that because it won't be obvious to people who don't know the region well. I'm so sorry to interrupt, but it's important that we explain things to people who don't follow this in huge detail. When you talk about him being an ideological Zionist, well, Jeremy, do it better than I can.
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: Well, Zionism was the idea that the Jews needed a home of their own in what they came to believe was their historic homeland of Palestine. That movement started in Europe in the late 19th century. And in their first conference, they predicted they'd have a state within 50 years, and that pretty much happened. And crucially, amongst the people, the ideological Zionists, they want to expand it.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Yeah, and as they discovered, when the first Zionist deputation was sent out, and famously one historian has written that they telegraphed back, "The bride is beautiful, but she's already married," meaning the land has people in it.
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: Yes, and the fear of some, the hope of others, is that Israel is expanded to include the Palestinian territories. Now, Judea and Samaria, as the West Bank is known to those people who believe in expanding Israel in that way, and also into Gaza as well.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Let me bring somebody who would not share that vision, but is an Israeli and a former Israeli minister, Professor Yuli Tamir, one of the founders of the Peace Now movement. You listen to what we've heard about what Trump might or might not do. And think what, Professor Tamir?
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: Trump can say to the Israeli Air Force over Tehran, "Stop," and they all turn back home. And when Trump says, "I want my citizen back," the hostage that was an American citizen, and he gets that person back, it means that he controls the scene. And unfortunately, he controls the Israeli government. We lost a lot of our sovereignty in this struggle because we are now totally led by the wishes, the decisions, the eclectic decisions of President Trump. And if he wishes to stop the war and to bring the hostages back, he will do it. I know Witkoff is in the region. He is again and again claiming that he's about to release the hostages. He's the only one who can do it because Netanyahu fears Trump and he is dependent on Trump for the continuation of his government. And that's the one and only thing that Netanyahu cares about.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Yeah. Steve Witkoff we're talking about, by the way, who's his friend, an ally and a businessman who is undertaking these talks on behalf of President Trump in the region. As the bringer of truths, Lord McDonald, the rather brutal truth sometimes for politicians, do you think that analysis, regardless of whether you agree with Donald Trump or not, the analysis, which is he could press the button, in effect, he could switch off this conflict if he wanted to, Donald Trump, by simply saying to the Israeli government, "You don't get the money, you don't get our support anymore." Is that right?
--:-- Lord Simon Macdonald: It's an unequal relationship, correct, but the Israelis have agency in this relationship. They need America but they are not slavishly following US opinion. And as I've already said, Netanyahu has a pretty good relationship with Trump. Of all world leaders, I think Trump listens most attentively to Bibi Netanyahu. So he's not in a mood to put massive pressure on him.
--:-- Nick Robinson: And in part, Jeremy, because what Netanyahu will be saying to Trump, as Lord MacDonald was suggesting before, is look, look at the victories we're having. We've defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon. We've changed the government or helped to change the government in Syria. We are on our way, he will claim, to defeating Hamas. We have neutered the Iranian nuclear programme. Why would we break this relationship now? Will that not be the message coming from Jerusalem?
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: Yeah. And Trump appears to respect strength and he likes success more than anything. He hates anybody who might be called a loser. However, there's also stuff he doesn't like. And he's made clear he doesn't like the sight of starving children on his TV. He watches a great deal of TV and social media. Now, that is something that will impact with him. And the prophecies, the predictions and projections of starvation in Gaza are clearly coming true. Israel denies it's happening, but the evidence absolutely belies that, that there isn't food there. Today, the French news agency, AFP, even put out a statement saying that their correspondents there are not filing in the way they normally do because they're hungry and they're out looking for food.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Well, let's end our conversation with discussing the parties themselves, because we've talked about the influence on them from outside. Let's talk about Israel and, of course, Hamas. Raja Khalidi, can I return to you speaking on the West Bank and just remind people and stress that you are in no sense a spokesman for either Hamas or indeed for the Palestinian Authority, but an observer of these things? What pressures, though, do you detect there are on the remaining fighters of Hamas to actually reach a deal and to release some of these hostages?
--:-- Raja Khalidi: Look, the pressure's on Hamas. I mean, Hamas has been ready to do this deal. The New York Times told us that for about a year, this is the deal that's been on the table. There's going to be some modifications brought to bear after a year's additional fighting and destruction of Gaza, etc. So we know that this is not a deal that is brand new. So Hamas has been here at this stage, more or less. Now, the issue of day after demilitarization of Gaza, even that we've had fairly explicit statements by Hamas, if not to the public, then we've heard that it's been explicitly said to the mediators that demilitarization is something they accept. And handing over the government to a Palestinian government is something that they accept. So let's remind ourselves that the Palestinians, Hamas aside for the moment, but even after two years battering Hamas as well, have been the party that has been committed to the two state solution since 1988.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: Not Hamas. Not Hamas. Let's be very, very, very clear about that. They want the destruction of the state of Israel.
--:-- Raja Khalidi: I said, I put Hamas aside, but I also said that Hamas now, having been battered, is definitely singing a different song.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: OK, but anyhow, my point is that... Why would you believe them if you were Israel? Why on earth would you believe anything Hamas says, given the appalling death, destruction, murder, rape and kidnapping that they did?
--:-- Raja Khalidi: You know that Hamas has been militarily vanquished, at least in terms of being a threat to Israel. It remains obviously a guerrilla threat to Israel as long as Israel is in Gaza Strip. But we also know that any ceasefire deal will include international security guarantees for Israel, demilitarization, handing over. So I mean, that's already been openly discussed.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Let me put that to Michael Kleiner, if I could. Openly, at least. That's what I read in the Israeli press. Perhaps Haaretz, of course, maybe has a rosy picture. Which is a liberal Israeli newspaper for those who are not readers of Haaretz. Michael Kleiner, let me just put that to you. Which is however much you loathe Hamas, and most people would say with pretty good reason, the argument being made, they are no longer a threat to the existence of Israel.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: Yes, of course, that they would like to target individual Israelis, as no doubt Hezbollah and others want to do, and the Houthis in Yemen, but they're not a threat to Israel per se. What will be a threat is if everyone in that region loathes Israel with a vengeance for the rest of their lives. If Israel withdraws without making sure that the Gaza Strip is demilitarized and Hamas is out, Hamas will stay in Gaza. It will pose a danger, not to the existence of the state of Israel, they never did, but they will pose a danger to the southern townships in the south of Israel, which they attacked. And they will be able to butcher them and to disturb them and send rockets and they will try to rebuild. They will get money and instead of investing it in rebuilding Gaza, they will invest it in rebuilding the tunnels and rebuilding the weapon workshops and they will pose a danger for the Palestinians, no less than for the Israeli southern settlements.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Just a moment to bring in, finally, Professor Yuli Tamir. Do you think that Netanyahu is thinking about the future of Israel or the future of himself?
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: Mostly about his own future, and I think his own future depends on his government right now.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: Unbelievable. Unbelievable.
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: The future of Israel depends on a negotiation with the Palestinian government, not the Hamas. I have zero trust in the Hamas, but the Palestinian government needs to replace Israel.
--:-- Michael Kleiner: To replace Israel. OK, this is what you said. Needs to replace Israel. This is your opinion, probably. This is what you said. Needs to replace Israel, you said.
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: You know, don't interrupt me. I've listened to what you say with a lot of disagreement, but quietly.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Both of you from Tel Aviv. Time is short, so finish your point if you would, Yuli.
--:-- Professor Yuli Tamir: Yeah, I just want to say that really the future lies in finding a replacement for the Hamas, a Palestinian replacement. And that is what Prime Minister Netanyahu prevented for years and years. This is why he supported the Hamas rather than creating a chance for the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza and the West Bank.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Thank you. A final thought, Mr Kleiner, thank you. We've got that. Thank you. I'm afraid we're going to have to let our guests in the region go because we're almost out of time. I want to return, though, to where we began with Baroness Helic. Are you more depressed now hearing these arguments, hearing the sense that there is little that can change, little that will be done?
--:-- Baroness Arminka Helic: No, I believe that there are things that can be done. I believe that it can change and the moment will come when the killing and massacres are going to stop. What we must not do is walk away in depression and say, well, we'll be back in September and we'll touch upon this again.
--:-- Nick Robinson: Simon Macdonald?
--:-- Lord Simon Macdonald: I'm pretty depressed about it. I think Mr Netanyahu's strategy only makes sense if there are no Palestinians in Gaza.
--:-- Nick Robinson: And Jeremy Bowen, for those looking for some hope, is there some?
--:-- Jeremy Bowen: I'm probably the wrong man to come to. Wars will end, this one will end. The conflict, sadly, has gone on for more than a century, and there is no sign that it's going to get anything other than worse, unless there are political initiatives that work, that do go towards, that somehow revitalise this idea, perhaps, of a two-state solution, because at the moment, it is an empty slogan.
--:-- Anka Desai: And that's all from this special edition of the Global News Podcast. There will be a new regular edition later. If you want to comment on this podcast or the topics covered in it, you can send us an email. The address is
[email protected]. And you can also find us on X under the handle at BBC World Service. And you can use the hashtag Global News Pod. This edition was mixed by Rosanwyn Dorell and the producer was Alfie Habishan. The editor is Karen Martin and I'm Ankur Desai. Until next time, goodbye.
