--:-- [Upbeat music fades out, and the hosts introduce the episode]
--:-- John Bickley: This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. Between two-factor authentication, strong passwords, and a VPN, you try to be in control of how your info is protected. But many other places also have it, and they might not be as careful. That's why LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points a second for threats. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it. Guaranteed or your money back. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit LifeLock.com slash podcast for 40% off. Terms apply.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Americans decide what direction the country will take in November, and polling shows significant shifts amid a series of seismic political and economic developments. We break down the latest polling on the direction of the country, President Biden, the enthusiasm gap, and the FBI's investigation of President Trump.
--:-- John Bickley: I'm Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Monday, August 22nd, and this is Morning Wire.
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--:-- John Bickley: Officials are sounding the alarm over a global food shortage, warning of looming unrest and riots. This is an issue that we really need to focus on right away. And like many states across the country, Florida is facing a dire shortage of public school teachers. But Florida's governor has a plan to address it. We discussed the plan and why teachers unions are criticizing it.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: With midterm elections just 77 days away, Americans are facing a shifting political and economic landscape, including record inflation, the overturning of Roe, and the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago. Here to discuss how Americans are responding to these shifts and their views of the president and the direction of the country is Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, we've been keeping a close eye on two key metrics, how voters feel about the direction of the country and also which party they want in control of Congress. Well over 70 percent of voters say the country is going in the wrong direction. Generally, numbers like that have signified massive losses for the party in power. But as we talked about on the show last week, things have really tightened on the question of which party people want to control Congress. Republicans are still leading in the majority of polls, but there are some polls that have Democrats pulling dead even. So we'll have to see if that's just temporary following the overturning of Roe or if that trend will last to November.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What do polls show us in terms of likely voters for this election?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's a good question and something that's important to track when it comes to polls. So a lot of polls right now are just interviewing, quote, voters as opposed to likely voters. Now, remember, historically, only about 40 percent of registered voters actually show up for midterm elections. So simply asking registered voters for their opinion isn't always a great way of predicting midterm results. And that's also where the enthusiasm gap comes in.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Exactly. And on that metric, Republicans have generally held an edge on Democrats for months. That's often the case for the party that isn't in power. For example, a recent NBC poll found Republicans with a two-point edge there.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: It's now been two weeks since the FBI's search of President Trump's home. Are we starting to get a clearer picture of how that was perceived by voters?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yes and no. One thing we know for sure is that each party base is largely in agreement on how they view the raid. Staunch Democrats say that it was justified and had nothing to do with politics while the Republican base feels strongly that the raid was politically motivated and meant to unfairly target former President Trump.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But where it gets a bit murkier is how voters in the middle are responding. One Rasmussen poll, for example, found that 46% of independent voters have less trust in the FBI after the raid, while just 18% have more trust. But another poll from Economist and YouGov found that 47% of independents approved of the raid while just 37% disapproved. And another poll from Reuters found a 50-50 split among independents who were asked if the FBI had acted responsibly. So maybe not a clear consensus yet on how it will impact midterms.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, not with independents at least. And we're still getting details every day about the raid and we should have more information this week if that redacted affidavit is released as expected. So that could help solidify things one way or the other ahead of November.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, we're all anxiously awaiting that affidavit.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We've talked on the show a bit about how Democrats have gained some ground this summer. Has that trend impacted President Biden's approval ratings?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So the president has seen his approval ratings improve slightly over the last month with most polls putting him anywhere from 37 to 43% favorability. Remember, he was down as low as 32 and 33. But keep in mind, even with that latest bump, his numbers are still lower than at any point in modern history for the state of a president's first term. So yes, he is doing a little better in some polls, but his disapproval ratings are still in the mid-50s, which historically are a strong indicator of midterm success for the party not in power.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What's one trend that's maybe not getting as much attention but could have a huge impact on races?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So we've talked about this a bit, but there appears to be just a seismic shift in how minorities are identifying politically. For years, non-white voters have gone overwhelmingly for Democrats, but over the last few years, we've seen signs of that trend beginning to reverse, especially in a number of majority Latino districts that went Republican for the first time in decades in 2022. But there's more data that seems to show more disillusionment among minority voters with the political left. For example, a morning consult study has been tracking political identification by ethnicity for years. And this year, they found a 16% drop in the number of Hispanics calling themselves liberal. It went from 50% to 34% in the last five years alone. And similarly, for black voters, there was a 15-point drop, with just 34% now identifying as liberal. Now, it's worth noting that same study didn't necessarily reflect a huge surge in the number of minorities now identifying as conservative. But it does seem to show that they're, at the very least, up for grabs this November. And that is a huge development that could alter the political landscape for years to come.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, it could. We'll have answers to a lot of these questions in less than 80 days. Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's Daily Wire Senior Editor, Cabot Phillips.
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--:-- John Bickley: Coming up, officials sound the alarm over a coming global food shortage. If you like this podcast, subscribe to our Morning Wire newsletter available exclusively to Daily Wire members. Get the Morning Wire newsletter delivered straight to your inbox when you join at dailywire.com slash subscribe. Use code MORNINGWIRE to try a Reader's Pass membership and get your first month for only 99 cents.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Some experts say the increasing cost of food around the world, combined with shortages caused by the war in Ukraine, could result in major economic problems and even civil unrest. Here to discuss is Daily Wire's Charlotte Pence Bond.
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: Yes, this is concerning. Officials around the world are issuing dire warnings about a global food shortage. On Monday the World Bank said record high food prices have quote triggered a global crisis that will drive millions more into extreme poverty magnifying hunger and malnutrition As risk assessment experts at several companies are warning, a lack of food combined with other problems inevitably leads to unrest and riots. Here's Laura Burns with Willis Towers Watson comparing today's conditions to the uprisings we witnessed during the Arab Spring in 2011.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The concern, you know, drawing a parallel to today is that if Ukraine being one of the world's breadbaskets is unable to supply that wheat and the vegetable oils and fertilizer also coming from Russia, might we see a spark in social unrest from several countries in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: Sir John Todorovic, the head of terrorism and hostile environment solutions at Alliance Global corporate and specialty, pointed out how dire the situation is. We've seen the pattern over the last few years, but also if you try to search back in history the kind of situation, political, economic, that we're witnessing at the moment globally, you probably can't find similar situations.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Many factors are leading to this global food crisis. Six months of war in Ukraine, supply chain problems and worldwide inflation. Back in 2007 and 2008, high food costs led to riots and protests across 48 countries. Well, prices today are already higher than they were then. So we could start to see civil unrest again.
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: While food prices are being caused by a lot of issues, we're also seeing high fertilizer costs as lending to problems as well. What's the latest on that?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yes, high costs of fertilizer resulted in Peruvian and Greek farmers heading to cities to share their frustration. And as you all reported on Morning Wire, protesters in Sri Lanka pushed out the current administration after they forcibly entered the presidential palace. And experts have said that was in part because of a chemical fertilizer ban that led to less crops harvested.
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: Authorities at the UN and others are increasing their warnings about the lack of fertilizer, especially as regions of Africa are dealing with these prices that have surged by 300% since the war in Ukraine. Here's World Bank Vice President for Sustainable development Jürgen Vogler speaking about this in April.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Russia and Belarus account for 20 percent of global fertilizer exports. And again, fertilizer prices were already very high before the war because of high oil prices. And the price of urea, for instance, actually tripled last year already. There are at least 50 countries that rely on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30 percent of their grain. And that includes a lot of developing countries in North Africa and Asia, according to a report from Marsh.
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: One example is Turkey. That nation imported 78% of its wheat from the two warring countries in 2020. And Brazil is the primary market for Russian fertilizers. So almost completely reliant on those two countries.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Are all countries at risk here?
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: No. Most of the wealthier democratic countries in the world can adjust to the increase in cost. The U.S. in particular leads the world in food production and exports. We make up 4% of the world population, but 30% of food production. The U.S. is likely insulated from a food crisis, but what about the world? What can be done worldwide?
--:-- Georgia Howe: In the short term, it seems there could be a lot of hardship, but over the long run, more strategies could be put in place to increase worldwide food production. Companies are also looking at how any unrest might affect their business. If there is unrest and upheaval in some of these countries, it doesn't just affect those areas. There's a ripple effect. With the global economy so interconnected, disruptions in one country can end up having a massive impact.
--:-- Charlotte Pence Bond: Charlotte, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Daily Wire's Charlotte Pence Bond.
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--:-- John Bickley: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has announced a set of new initiatives to address his state shortage of teachers in the public school systems The recruitment efforts look to expand the ranks in classrooms with teachers from non backgrounds but it drawn some ire The governor is recruiting retired police, firefighters, veterans, and first responders into education by waiving fees and some other requirements. The goal is to fill teaching posts while also bringing more diverse backgrounds into schools. Here to discuss the efforts and the blowback against it is David Marcus.
--:-- David Marcus: Good morning. DeSantis isn't really reinventing the wheel here. There have been efforts all over the country to attract engineers or people in the arts, others into teaching. Sometimes this is done with a bonus or the relaxation of prerequisites to become a teacher or to actually be in the classroom. The new wrinkle here is the focus on veterans and first responders, which, of course, includes former police officers who have been in recent cultural crosshairs.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, teachers unions have voiced some reservations about this plan. What objections have they raised?
--:-- David Marcus: So the main objection that we're hearing is that this simply doesn't address the underlying problems regarding teacher retention. They point to a need for higher salaries, better contracts, the things you'd expect, really. But beyond calling it gimmicky, they also have expressed concern that the standards may be too lax and that some unqualified people will wind up teaching kids. If most teachers have to jump through academic hoops, why shouldn't others? That's what they'd argue.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, now DeSantis has also famously cracked down on some of those sex and gender lessons in the public schools, some other progressive curriculum items. Is it fair to suggest that part of this initiative Is him trying to attract more traditional type people into teaching roles?
--:-- David Marcus: Yes, definitely. The educational pipeline that produces our country's teachers is extremely progressive, which is why so many of these disconnects between educators and parents happen. Even on critical race theory, it's not that middle schoolers are taught the subject critical race theory. It's that most of their teachers learned how to implement critical race theory in lesson plans during their teacher education. Veterans and cops come from outside that pipeline.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, you mentioned that these kinds of recruitment programs have been used before. How common are they and how successful have they been in the past?
--:-- David Marcus: They're quite common and vary in success as much as anything else based on how well they're administered. In New York, it's a fairly common second career or even for some people like writers or artists, a second job. DeSantis and conservatives are arguing that soldiers and cops also have direct experience with leadership and organizational structure. So they, too, can bring something unique and valuable to the kids in their charge.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, as a former middle school teacher, I will say it's not exactly a leisurely retirement job, but I can absolutely imagine that former cops could be great with seventh graders.
--:-- David Marcus: David, thanks so much for joining us.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Daily Wire contributor David Marcus.
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--:-- John Bickley: Another story we're tracking this week. A recent report issued by DHS, DOS, and USAID warned that both Russia and China have begun cultivating ties with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal from the country.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for listening to Morning Wire. We created this show to bring more balance to the national conversation. If you love our show and you stand with our mission, consider subscribing, leaving us a five-star rating, and most importantly, sharing our podcast with a friend.
--:-- John Bickley: That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know.
