--:-- [Cabot Phillips speaking]
Cabot Phillips: With just weeks remaining until the first votes of the 2024 GOP primary race are cast in Iowa, the final stretch is upon us. Will President Trump maintain his historic lead, or will one of his many challengers be able to step up before it's too late?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: On this Sunday edition of Morning Wire, we'll talk with a White House reporter about the state of the race, break down the latest polling data, and lay out President Biden's re-election strategy. I'm Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips. It's Sunday, December 17th, and this is Morning Wire.
--:-- [Music continues softly]
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In just a minute, we're going to hear from an expert who's been following the election very closely. But first, let's start with some context on where things stand.
--:-- Philip Wegman: To this point, the story of the race has been the lack of a race, as Donald Trump has dominated in the polls all year. He now sits around 60% nationally. But Florida's Ron DeSantis and South Carolina's Nikki Haley are battling for second place, hoping to consolidate the non-Trump vote and take him down.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: There's also Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie still hoping to make a splash in Iowa or New Hampshire. For more on the state of the race, we turn now to Philip Wegman, the White House reporter over RealClearPolitics.
--:-- Philip Wegman: Thank you for having me.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: All right, so we'll start with the Republican primary. Now, right now, there hasn't really been much of a race to this point as Trump continues to dominate in the polls. At this point, where we stand right now, what would it take for someone not named Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee?
--:-- Philip Wegman: Maybe the second coming. I know I sound a little glib there, but there's some truth in kidding. Donald Trump leads the rest of the pack by 47 points in the RealClearPolitics average. But more than that, he's leading President Biden by two points. That's something that has never happened before.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I remember in 2020, they were always close, but he never eclipsed him. So in order for Trump to lose, one of these candidates, one of these challengers would have to start pitching a perfect game in a perfect storm.
--:-- Philip Wegman: You know, the DeSantis theory of the case seems to be that he makes Iowa his last Alamo and builds momentum from there. But, you know, he was billed as a conservative juggernaut. He's sadly been on sort of this glide path to the ground.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Meanwhile, Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the UN, she is getting a second look. But right now, none of these guys have been able to capture the moment and really build what it would take to take down not just a former president, but also a cultural and political icon at the same time.
--:-- Philip Wegman: Trump and, importantly, his challengers are certainly watching the legal cases against him very closely. To that point, if one of these cases ultimately results in a conviction, what does that mean politically and also logistically for this race?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, that's the question of every political reporter in Washington, D.C. right now. We're taking the primary schedule and we're overlaying it with President Trump's court dates. Right now, though, I think that what we will continue to see is this phenomenon that began with the indictments.
--:-- Philip Wegman: I remember speaking to Trump pollster a fellow named John McLaughlin right before the New York indictment. And he told me, look, these indictments for now are helping us in the primary. And that because Donald Trump understands that martyrdom is a powerful political currency. He is dealing with Republican voters who, after the Russia gate saga, are really primed to dismiss any allegations against him.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And so Trump has been able to roll out this playbook where he says, they're not coming after me. In fact, the left is coming after you, but I'm just in the way. That's a potent argument.
--:-- Philip Wegman: In terms of these cases, if he's actually convicted, that could change things. It could start sowing some seeds of doubt in the minds of voters. Maybe they look at Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis for the general election. But it would come down to this question. Do those GOP voters love Trump more than they hate Biden? And are they willing to risk it and vote for a convicted president and potentially get four more years of a Democrat in the White House.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And don't forget, his first D.C. court date comes the day before Super Tuesday in March.
--:-- Philip Wegman: Now, in past primaries, we have seen candidates drop out early if they don't make a splash in Iowa or New Hampshire. But with those cases pending, do you think some of Trump's challengers might stay in the race longer than usual, sort of hoping the election is shaken up by a potential conviction?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Hope certainly springs eternal in the minds of all of these presidential candidates. You have to get in the headspace of these guys who are going to be putting aside their other professional aspirations, their family life. They're making so many sacrifices for this one thing that is going to dominate their life for two, three years that they're reluctant to give it up.
--:-- Philip Wegman: But the math is pretty simple right now. If you look at both DeSantis and Haley, they are trailing Donald Trump by double digits. Something has to change very quickly. Perhaps it is the legal trouble of the president or perhaps it is his age. After all, Donald Trump is 77 years old.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But right now, Trump is certainly in a position to regain the nomination. And he's running in some ways as an establishment candidate where you have these other challengers sort of fighting for a never Trump vote or a Trump skeptical vote, Trump has stepped in and enjoys the advantages almost of incumbency because he's a former president.
--:-- Philip Wegman: But yet at the same time, Trump is also a cultural phenomenon and he is able to enjoy grassroots supports. These other candidates, they are going to have to look in the mirror and they're going to have to make some hard decisions after Iowa, after New Hampshire, after South Carolina.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Certainly, if they are losing by significant double digits, they might have hope, but their donors are going to stop writing the checks.
--:-- Philip Wegman: So we know that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are each hoping to consolidate the non-Trump vote. But from a numbers standpoint, are there enough non-Trump voters at this stage to even present a viable path to victory for them?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, I think that the supporters of DeSantis and Haley there is some overlap there certainly. But the ambassador seems to be drawing from a different voter pool than DeSantis from Republicans who can stand Trump from some moderates who are going to vote Republican.
--:-- Philip Wegman: It's not clear that if one of them drops out, support would immediately flow to the other. And I think that that would be a pretty interesting exercise when we actually look at the demographics of voters.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In order for them to be legitimate, though, they have to put points on the board. There is no ribbon, there's no trophy for coming in second place.
--:-- Philip Wegman: And right now, the theory of the case with DeSantis is that if he wins in Iowa, he can build momentum and stay competitive ahead of Super Tuesday. With Haley, she has sort of peaked later. And if you look at the RealClearPolitics average, she is within the margin of error for second place.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Her theory of the case is that she doesn't need to win in Iowa. She just needs to keep it close. She needs to keep it close in New Hampshire, where she picked up a significant endorsement from Governor Chris Anunu. And then if she makes it to South Carolina, then that's friendlier ground and she can sort of springboard into Super Tuesday.
--:-- Philip Wegman: But Kevin, you know this. We're talking about all of these if-then scenarios at a moment where Donald Trump has returned to the playbook that works and he has been rewarded, at least in the polls thus far.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: All right, let's get to the Democrat side. We've heard rumblings really all year now in Washington that President Biden could step down from the ticket by November.
--:-- Philip Wegman: Publicly, though, Democrat lawmakers still seem to be standing by him, despite polls showing that the majority of Democrat voters want someone else. But let's be real here. Is there any actual shot that Biden is not the Democrat nominee at this stage of the race?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: You know, I think that he's an undeniable fact that every morning President Biden walks into the Oval Office. He's the oldest president that we've ever had. The fellow is 81 years old, and certainly we wish him nothing but the best.
--:-- Philip Wegman: There's a chance that Father Time could throw a wrench into things. In terms of any type of political coup, I don't think that there's either the appetite or infrastructure for some sort of deal to come together in a smoke-filled back room.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Certainly, there were some rumors about California Governor Gavin Newsom. He was doing all sorts of things that you would expect from a presidential candidate, making foreign trips, holding lavish fundraisers.
--:-- Philip Wegman: But all of these Democrats, even if they're not completely satisfied with President Biden, even if they're really taking a deep dive into the cross tabs of polling and seeing how soft his support is, they're dealing with an emotional question. They do not want to reprise the role of Senator Ted Kennedy, who softened up Jimmy Carter before he lost to Ronald Reagan.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: They don't want that on their conscience at a moment when Donald Trump, who in their minds is an existential threat to democracy, is at the gates.
--:-- Philip Wegman: And I think that if, you know, in my conversations with folks inside of Biden world, they are thrilled with the opportunity of running against Donald Trump a second time. That's when they think that they will codify all of their support.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But, you know, outside of some unforeseen medical scenario, I think that, you know, Joe Biden certainly will be the Democratic nominee.
--:-- Philip Wegman: You've been following all the polling very closely. What does the data say at this point on a hypothetical Trump head in the general?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Right now Trump leads Biden by two points in the RealClearPolitics average. That's something, again, that we did not see in 2020.
--:-- Philip Wegman: And that reflects that this is going to be a street fight, that this is going to be an actual competition between the two of them.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Again, think about the nature of the race. In 2020, all of us were watching this great experiment in democracy from, you know, our living room and our pajamas because we weren't able to go anywhere because of the pandemic.
--:-- Philip Wegman: And Biden used that to his advantage. He was, you know, campaigning from Will Moore. He wasn't so much shaking hands, kissing babies like we've seen traditionally.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: This time, without the pandemic, he would have to be on the campaign trail. It would be much more of a traditional contest.
--:-- Philip Wegman: But I think that if you look at some of the other head-to-heads, though. It's very interesting that while it's sort of a jump ball between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, meanwhile, is leading Biden in the RealClearPolitics average by four points.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: She is able to sort of demonstrate that she could win over moderates, that she could win over independents.
--:-- Philip Wegman: That could be, though, sort of a sad dream for the ambassador, though, because, again, she has to get through a Republican primary.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We'll end with third-party candidates who typically don't have much of an impact, but this year is different. RFK is polling around 20% nationally in some polls.
--:-- Philip Wegman: What does his rise mean for this race? And which party do you think benefits more from his presence on the ticket?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: It is a difficult question to answer because we haven't actually seen anyone put votes in ballot boxes.
--:-- Philip Wegman: There's some polling that indicates that RFK's candidacy would actually end up hurting Donald Trump more.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I'm not certain yet about what Cornel West does to the dynamic of the race.
--:-- Philip Wegman: But any time a independent or Democratic voter is persuaded not to support the top of the ticket, that's going to hurt Biden in what could be a very close race.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And I think that there is a larger question here when it comes to younger, more progressive voters. If you think about Joe Biden, yes, he has made common cause with progressives. But at his heart of hearts. This is a traditional big government Democrat.
--:-- Philip Wegman: And what we've seen as a result of the Gaza crisis is that Biden world was caught completely by surprise by the disconnect between this old school Democrat and these younger voters who see the world through a oppressed, oppressor lens, a colonizer, colonized lens.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The worry among the Biden campaign is not that suddenly Trump or maybe some of these third party candidates are going to make a play for these voters. The worry is that they stay home and that eats at Biden's support.
--:-- Philip Wegman: If it comes down to a very close contest like it did last time in some of these key states, well, then a dynamic like that could potentially shift the race.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: All right, we'll leave it there. Philip, we appreciate your time. Thanks for coming on.
--:-- Philip Wegman: Thank you.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's Philip Wegman, White House reporter at Real Clear Politics. I'm Kevin Phillips, senior editor at Daily Wire, and this has been a Sunday edition of Morning Wire. Thank you.
