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--:-- John Bickley: Welcome to Morning Wire. I'm Editor-in-Chief John Bickley.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And I'm Georgia Howe.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: We're less than two weeks from Election Day and millions of Americans have already cast their ballots. If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that's a big if, we'll almost certainly know before Election Day who's going to win the election. What does the turnout tell us so far? And is it already changing the electoral math?
--:-- John Bickley: I'm with Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips. So Cabot, early voting is well underway in a number of states. What have we seen so far?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, at latest count, more than 18 million voters have mailed in their ballot or voted early in person. For context, that is equal to about 10% of the overall votes cast last election. In Georgia, for example, state officials say they expect up to 70% of votes to be cast before election day.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So more and more folks are warming up to the idea of voting early. And what makes this year different is that Republicans are casting their ballots early as well. In the past, Democrats had really dominated the early vote, but we've seen a noticeable messaging shift this past year from Donald Trump, who is now actively encouraging his supporters to cast their ballots as soon as possible.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So if you have a ballot, return it immediately. If not, go tomorrow as soon as you can. Go to the polls and vote. Then for the next 21 days, get everyone you know to get out and vote.
--:-- John Bickley: So what do we know about who is voting? So thankfully, in a number of battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, we can actually see which party early voters are affiliated with.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In Nevada, for example, Republicans now hold a 3% lead. Compared to 2020 when they were down 4% among early voters. It's a similar story in Arizona, where Republicans hold a 5.5-point lead. Democrats are ahead by a point and a half in North Carolina, though a third of votes cast have come from independents.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So the big question is how those folks are voting. Harris appears to have her biggest lead in Pennsylvania, where 61% of early votes have been cast by registered Democrats though their early voting advantage has fallen by 8 points compared to 2020.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Zooming out at this point in the 2020 election Democrats held a 22-point lead among early voters in battlegrounds and less than a third of votes cast had been for Republicans. This year, at latest count, the Democrat lead has shrunk by 10 points. Now, again, that could be just a reflection of Republicans becoming more comfortable with early voting, but it could also signify more enthusiasm among the GOP base.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, zooming out a little bit, what are the positive signs for each candidate? So we'll start with Harris. First, she is consistently led in the national polls, which are far less important than battleground polls, but, you know, can still be helpful in tracking overall voter sentiment.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The VP has also consistently gained ground on the question of which candidate voters trust to handle the economy. In the summer, she trailed on that issue by double digits. Today, she is only down by around four to six points.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But the biggest reason for optimism in the Harris camp is the issue of abortion, which has increasingly become a top issue for voters, especially women who vote more often than men.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: To that point, a new poll from Newsweek found that for the first time this cycle, abortion has overtaken immigration as the second most important issue for voters. That's obviously good news for Harris, who has a significant lead on that topic.
--:-- John Bickley: And let's talk about Trump. What are his positive signs? Well, he has had a strong two weeks of polling for sure. The latest Real Clear Politics average has him ahead in all seven battlegrounds, though all seven are within two and a half points.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So again, it's very close. Trump has also reached new highs when it comes to his perception among voters. According to the latest polling from Gallup, his favorability rating is at 50 percent. That is 14 points higher than when he took office back in 2016 and well above his numbers during his term in office.
--:-- Georgia Howe: For her part, Harris is at 48 percent favorability. And it's interesting, when you look at the numbers among registered voters, Trump is considerably more popular. He is at 52% favorable, 47% unfavorable. Harris is flipped, 47 and 52, which is just quite remarkable for a man who is arguably the most polarizing candidate in modern history.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, I just voted early on Monday, and it was easy breezy recommend.
--:-- John Bickley: Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
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--:-- John Bickley: Residents from a city in Indiana say their resources are being strained and their children are being put last due to an influx of migrants, mostly from Haiti. Logan's Port is among a growing list of cities facing similar issues from a recent surge in immigrants. Here to discuss is Daily Wire reporter Amanda Prestes-Giacomo.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Hey, Amanda. So Logan's Port residents are speaking out about the struggles they're facing due to this influx of migrants. This is not an unfamiliar story at this point. Tell us what's going on here.
--:-- John Bickley: Well, we don't have the exact numbers on immigrants who've moved into the city in the last few years. Actually, the mayor of Logansport says he can't get a number from anyone in the state or federal government, which is a problem in itself. But there are at least thousands, potentially 5,000 Haitians alone, of these new migrants now in Logansport.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: That's significant since the city only has a population of just around 18,000. And another report estimates it's far more than that for the entire county, potentially as many as 11,000 new migrants. Again, most of these migrants have come from Haiti.
--:-- John Bickley: In January of 2023 the Biden administration launched a new program that has allowed more than 200 Haitians to be paroled into the U And then in the summer, the administration granted Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, to 300,000 Haitian migrants. This means they can stay in the U.S. until at least February of 2026, even if they entered the country illegally.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: And what are we hearing from residents on the ground in Logansport? What are they experiencing? It's some of the same things we've heard from residents in other towns that are dealing with similar influxes. Logansport Mayor Chris Martin, for example, he said that there are assimilation issues related to culture.
--:-- John Bickley: A resident named Nancy Baker told the New York Post that her 16-year-old daughter was chased by migrants after she rebuffed their calls to walk over to them while she was on her way to a nearby coffee shop.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Another resident, 32-year-old Candace Espinoza, she told the Post, migrants routinely stare into her windows while she's home, holding up their phones, potentially recording her, she said. Additionally, resources are now significantly strained. The number of Haitian migrant students in Logansport schools has increased 15-fold since 2021.
--:-- John Bickley: Teachers are having to spend a lot of time with these students because of the language barrier. It's gotten so bad, Baker says her daughter dropped out of public school to take the rest of her classes online. She quit. She's in online school now. Why? Because there was nobody was getting the attention that they needed. There was way too many kids. And it seemed to her that since they didn't speak the language and didn't understand what was going on, that they were getting more attention.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Do we know why migrants are flooding some of these particular small towns? Why Logansport in this case? It's difficult to track down exact answers on this, but there does seem to be a connection between nonprofits who are resettling migrants and businesses looking for labor.
--:-- John Bickley: A report from Fox 59 and CBS 4 connected Haitian migrants in Logan's Port to Tyson Foods. That's a meatpacking plant. The report noted that Tyson did not respond when they were asked about how many migrants, particularly young migrants, are working for them in the city.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Notably, Haitian teens are reportedly working shifts to help their families while also attending school. Tyson made headlines back in May when a conservative nonprofit called America First Legal asked the DOJ to investigate the company over its employment practices concerning migrants.
--:-- John Bickley: AFL said Tyson employs 42,000 foreign workers, more than a third of its U.S. workforce. They're also accused of being involved in programs to recruit more migrants. Tyson strongly denied discriminating against American workers for migrants, and they said that all of their workers are legal.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Now, in Springfield, Ohio, another town that's been inundated with migrants, also from Haiti, manufacturing and packing plant jobs opened up and businesses welcomed and even encouraged the flow of migrants to fill those labor needs.
--:-- John Bickley: A reminder for listeners, it's estimated that about 20,000 Haitian migrants moved into Springfield, which had a population of just 60,000 people. Charleroi, a small town in PA, has seen a 2,000% increase in its immigration population in just the past few years.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Residents and officials from those towns say there's been an increase in traffic violations and car accidents. They say resources at schools and local law enforcement are strained. Housing has become more scarce. And residents are struggling overall with the lack of assimilation from the newcomers.
--:-- John Bickley: We're definitely seeing this pattern of more and more communities sounding the alarm over this immigration trend. Yeah, we sure have.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: Thanks for reporting.
--:-- Amanda Prestes-Giacomo: You welcome.
--:-- John Bickley: Russian President Vladimir Putin is presiding over a major global economic summit this week gathering leaders of developing nations in the Russian city of Kazan. Here with more is Daily Wire Deputy Managing Editor Tim Rice.
--:-- Tim Rice: Hey, John. So we've talked about BRICS in the past, but for those who haven't followed this summit, this is effectively Moscow's answer to the G7. Is that correct?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah. Good morning, John. That's exactly right. This is the 16th annual BRICS Summit, which takes its name from the countries that founded it, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
--:-- Tim Rice: Now, this year's summit is particularly notable because the group is welcoming four new member nations, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
--:-- John Bickley: Earlier this month, Putin said he planned for this year's summit to be a chance for member nations to discuss building a new world order with all our friends, partners, and like-minded people.
--:-- Tim Rice: All right, so new world order, not exactly what you want to hear from a group that has many of America's key adversaries in it. Should we be worried about this?
--:-- John Bickley: Well, I spoke to financial analyst John Rubino, who said that from an economic perspective, BRICS goals are pretty much diametrically opposed to ours, and that its success will likely come at our expense.
--:-- Tim Rice: The U.S. has the world's reserve currency, the dollar, and we've gotten in the habit of using it as a weapon. A lot of other countries don't like that. And this time around, the BRICS countries have a lot more than the usual amount of incentive to make something serious happen because, you know, we're on the verge of World War III out there in several different theaters.
--:-- John Bickley: One of those things which Rubino thinks we could see the BRICS nations announce this week is the creation of a new gold standard currency backed by the member nations. If that happens, it could wreak havoc on the American economy.
--:-- Tim Rice: If the dollar becomes less necessary in the global economy, that's potentially a dangerous thing for the U.S. because there's maybe $10 trillion circulating out there. And if other countries don't need those dollars to hold in their central bank reserves to protect their own currencies or to trade with each other, then those dollars are going to tend to come back to the U.S. and be exchanged for U.S.-based assets.
--:-- John Bickley: You know, somebody will take a bunch of treasury bonds and they'll want to convert those into farmland in Kansas or something like that or Miami condos or whatever, depending on the country. That will tend to push up the prices of those things in the U.S., which is inflation.
--:-- Tim Rice: So obviously that sounds bad. But on the flip side, Rubino argues that the U.S. might not have any choice but to accept that we can't be the world's sole superpower forever. He went on to suggest that this might even lead to some moderation from Russia and China.
--:-- John Bickley: I also asked Rubino whether he thought the presidential election would impact the rise of BRICS and how each candidate would respond to this brave new world. He offered a qualified endorsement of Trump, who he thinks is more willing to work within the reality of the global power dynamic, which in this case means dealing with BRICS nations.
--:-- Tim Rice: I'm sure there will be more developments from the summit. We'll follow it closely.
--:-- John Bickley: Tim, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Before we let you go today, we want to hear your feedback. In order to better deliver the news you need to know, please take a moment to complete our short survey. You can find the link in this episode's description.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back this afternoon with more news you need to know.
--:-- Georgia Howe: You know what I've discovered is surprisingly calming in these crazy times? A warm, seasonal candle. But I'm only choosing the Candle Club because they're made in the U.S. and free from the toxins used by most candle brands. They've even partnered with Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, and Brett Cooper to make personalized collections with their favorite fall scents, like butterscotch and bourbon, autumn bonfire, and more.
--:-- John Bickley: Don't wait until the holidays to unwind, live free, and smell fancy with The Candle Club. Go to thecandleclub.com today.
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