--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Georgia Howe: Are we about to see a massive shakeup in late-night programming? Who's possibly on the way out, and what's next for some of the more iconic shows?
--:-- John Bickley: I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley. It's December 23rd, and this is a Saturday edition of Morning Wire. The U.S. now has the smallest standing military force it's had since entering World War II. Overcoming our recruiting challenges requires a national response with contributions from across government and the private sector.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Which branches are struggling to recruit the most and what's driving the alarming downward trend? And the NCAA continues to call on Congress to assist with establishing uniformity for name, image and likeness in college sports.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. The short-term interruption of the writer's strike and the ongoing disruption from streaming has sent late-night television ratings into a downward slide. But an upcoming election year could have audiences tuning back in.
--:-- Megan Basham: So, Megan, no genre of television was hit harder by the writer's strike than late-night, and I know that caused a very significant ratings hit. Where do things stand now?
--:-- Megan Basham: Yeah, you know, there's no other way to say it, but that late night has seen a very dramatic decline in recent years. And you will see spikes now and then, but the overall trend is down, and I don't think it's just because of the writer's strike. So obviously, streaming has played a big role in this, but I also think you have to trace it back to what I tend to call the daily showification of the genre overall, which is when it became much more partisan.
--:-- Megan Basham: So in 2014, ratings were still strong, and that's when Leno and Letterman were wrapping up their runs. And while they did political jokes, the jokes were tailored to a broader audience. And then in 2015, you see, for example, Daily Show veteran Stephen Colbert replaced Letterman and the show became explicitly targeted at left-leaning audiences.
--:-- Megan Basham: So today, Colbert on CBS is generally number one in broadcast late night overall, though he will sometimes get beat by Gutfeld on cable. But Letterman's average in his last season that ended in 2015 was nearly 3 million viewers. And that was on the early side of the streaming era, but certainly Netflix, Prime, and some other platforms were very much established by then.
--:-- Megan Basham: You compare Letterman's numbers to Colbert's average in 2022 when COVID was over and there was no strike. Well, he hovered around 2 million. So his audience was down by about a third from where Letterman finished.
--:-- Megan Basham: Now, are we seeing the same trend across the other shows too? Yeah, and even stronger for shows like Kimmel and Fallon. The Tonight Show averaged 3.3 million viewers in 2016, shortly after Fallon took over from Leno. By 2022, he was averaging 1.4 million. And ad revenues across Late Night are down 60% from their peak in 2016.
--:-- Megan Basham: So we're really starting to see a reshuffling of the deck. After 28 years, the final episode of The Late Late Show aired this past spring, and it was replaced by a Comedy Central game show. Trevor Noah left The Daily Show last year, and it's pretty much just been getting by with guest hosts.
--:-- Megan Basham: Several newer late night shows like TBS Full Frontal with Samantha Bee were canceled Then you have Apple TV Paramount and other streamers that tried a late night style show and they all failed So there's been a lot of discussion of whether there's still a future for the genre.
--:-- Megan Basham: Having Trump as a foil, of course, tends to boost late night ratings and that could help in the next year, but it's not a long-term solution. Now, is Saturday Night Live considered a late night show? You know, it's somewhat in a category of its own, but it has suffered from the same issue of alienating half of America.
--:-- Megan Basham: And it's repeatedly hit low ratings in recent years, so much so that creator Lorne Michaels promised that the show would see a reset after a disastrous 2021 season that saw the biggest cast turnover since 1995. But you do still sometimes see signs of life in SNL with particular guests.
--:-- Megan Basham: Dave Chappelle, Taylor Swift, a couple others come to mind. So it'll be interesting to watch SNL as it comes up on the 50th anniversary. And there have been rumors that Lauren could retire this year.
--:-- Megan Basham: This is what he told CBS News a couple of years ago. I think I'm committed to doing the show until its 50th anniversary, which is in three years. I'd like to see that through. And I'm feeling that'd be a really good time to leave. I won't want the show ever to be bad. I care too deeply about it. It's been my life's work.
--:-- Megan Basham: So if Lauren does indeed exit in 2024, that could present the show with an opportunity to reintroduce itself to audiences and maybe set a new tone. Rumors are that Tina Fey may already have been tapped to take over. And certainly she's proved in the past with shows like 30 Rock that she has the ability to create comedy that Red America also loves.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Megan, thanks for reporting. Anytime.
--:-- Georgia Howe: A years-long struggle to hit recruitment quotas is setting off alarm bells in the Pentagon. The chronic shortfall on top of years of cuts has led to the smallest standing force the U.S. has fielded since before its entry into World War II.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Hi, Tim. So what's the condition of the U.S. armed forces now?
--:-- Tim Pierce: It's the smallest it's been in decades, and it's getting smaller. Under the National Defense Authorization Act that Congress approved last week, the U.S. military has funding to employ just under 1.3 million service members across all branches.
--:-- Tim Pierce: But that's actually several hundred thousand more than the military is likely to get. In reality, the military has struggled to hit recruitment goals and hasn't had a military of more than 1 million service members for several years now.
--:-- Tim Pierce: In its budget request earlier this year, the Department of Defense only asked for authorization for about 950,000 active duty troops. The Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, Ashish Vazirani, testified to Congress last week on the recruiting crisis.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Here's what he said. We are here today because the all-volunteer force faces one of its greatest challenges since inception. In fiscal year 2023, the military services collectively missed recruiting goals by approximately 41,000 recruits.
--:-- Tim Pierce: And that number understates the challenge before us as the services lowered end strength goals in recent years in part because of the difficult recruiting environment. All right so a difficult recruiting environment that what he said. What driving this drop in recruitment?
--:-- Tim Pierce: Vazirani pointed to changes in the U economy and population shifts as two of them. He said that a competitive job market makes recruiting more difficult as well. But he also pointed out that the military's pool of potential applicants is shrinking.
--:-- Tim Pierce: We're also recruiting from a smaller eligible population. 77% of today's youth would not qualify for military service without some form of a waiver. In addition, more broadly, members of Generation Z have low trust in institutions and are decreasingly following traditional life and career paths.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Republican Congressman Jim Banks, the chairman of the Military Personnel Subcommittee, said one of the chief reasons for low recruitment was a bad perception of military life.
--:-- Tim Pierce: What parent or teacher would recommend military service to their son or daughter when the overwhelming perception is that there are rats in the barracks, suicide rates are climbing, opioids are everywhere, the food options are terrible or inaccessible, and there's a risk that your child could be raped or murdered.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Banks also blame the Biden administration for co-opting the military for social justice experiments. And there's the administration's pet project forcing the military to be the guinea pig for their next social justice experiment.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Even now, when we see that the DEI has failed across the country, increasing division and hate, ignoring merit, and now fostering rampant anti-Semitism, this administration still elevates social justice over our national security.
--:-- Tim Pierce: So part of his argument there is ideological. What's being done to reverse this decline? Some branches are trying to entice more recruits through higher pay and benefits.
--:-- Tim Pierce: The Air Force, for example, offered faster naturalization processes for non-citizens and bonuses for returning airmen. It also loosened certain restrictions on tattoos and drug use. But it still fell short, and officials are expecting a shortfall again next year.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Only the Marine Corps and Space Force met recruiting goals in 2023, and the Space Force is just over a year old. So whatever is driving the recruiting crisis, officials don't seem to have found a solution yet.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, certainly not a good sign when the world is increasingly dangerous for Americans.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Tim, thanks for joining us. Good to be on.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The landscape of college athletics continues to shift as more athletes have opportunities to make money from their name, image, and likeness. The NCAA is calling for Congress to help establish nationwide rules regarding NIL.
--:-- David Cohn: So David, first, can you give us a little background on the controversy around name, image, and likeness in college sports? How did we get here?
--:-- David Cohn: Certainly. A lot of things changed in college sports following the case of O'Bannon versus the NCAA in 2015. And that was an antitrust class action lawsuit filed against the National Collegiate Athletic Association by former UCLA basketball player Ed O'Bannon.
--:-- David Cohn: That case challenged and struck down the long-held notion that college athletes are to be classified as amateurs and not entitled to compensation from their name, image, and likeness. Now, this decision opened up the floodgates for athletic departments to pay student athletes directly to compete for their programs.
--:-- David Cohn: Now that known as pay The NCAA has tried to provide guardrails on this issue by requiring athletes to report NIL deals above a certain monetary value as well as to establish a standardized contract for all transactions.
--:-- David Cohn: But it has become increasingly difficult for the NCAA to maintain authority given the outcome of not only the O'Bannon case we mentioned, but also the Supreme Court case of the NCAA versus Alston, which prompted the NCAA to suspend NIL rules for all collegiate student athletes.
--:-- David Cohn: So now it's sort of a Wild West situation. Absolutely. So if private organizations like the NCAA don't have authority over the issue anymore, is it now the government's domain?
--:-- David Cohn: The NCAA is certainly pushing for that. Senator Tommy Tupperville and Senator Ted Cruz have both joined our show, Crane & Company, to discuss potential legislation on this issue.
--:-- David Cohn: Now, Senator Tupperville has backed the PASS Act, which stands for Protect Athletes, Schools, and sports. The four guiding principles of this legislation are maintain competitive balance between schools and states.
--:-- David Cohn: That's a very important one. Total transparency on who is doing what, when, and where. Protect players, health, and safety. And lastly, maintain equality so that all student athletes in every sport benefit from these activities.
--:-- David Cohn: So just a first impression, these standards sound very vague and difficult to impose. That's correct. These points sound great and they have the best of intentions, Georgia, but the problem is it's incredibly difficult to put the genie back in the bottle, so to speak, once it has been unleashed with no strategy.
--:-- David Cohn: Any effort to create meaningful regulation is seen as an attempt to exploit the student athletes. Now, many have said college sports has essentially become professional free agency, but in actuality, it's worse than that because at least with the professional level, there are contracts that must be abided by.
--:-- David Cohn: Currently at the collegiate level, it's very difficult to know what athletes are receiving and what is required from them for said compensation. Now, Senator Cruz is also working to address this issue.
--:-- David Cohn: Here is a brief summary of his proposal, as well as a timeline from the last time we spoke to him. I think Congress needs to act, and the legislation I've filed empowers the NCAA to make rules that are reasonable rules that allow for real competition.
--:-- David Cohn: No one wants to see a handful of super rich schools sucking up all the talent and competition disappearing across the board. I would put the chances of it passing in the next year at about 60, 40.
--:-- David Cohn: I think it's more likely than not, but we've still got some distance to travel. Now, before you go, national signing day for the 2024 recruiting class in football was Wednesday.
--:-- David Cohn: Which programs had the best day? The usual suspects had a very good day. Georgia and Alabama hold those top two spots, which is not surprising to anyone with the way that Nick Saban and Kirby Smart have recruited over the years.
--:-- David Cohn: Ohio State, Texas, Miami all had very good days, as well as Auburn and Oklahoma. And even John Bickley's Florida State Seminoles had a very good day finishing right there around the top 10.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, I hope that's a good consolation after not making the playoffs. Oh, low blow.
--:-- Georgia Howe: David, thanks for coming on. Thank you for having me.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Crane & Company co-host David Cohn. That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know.
