--:-- Georgia Howe: With the Republican primary field all but set, the 2024 race for the White House is on, as candidates prepare to square off six months from now in the all-important Iowa caucuses.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I'm here to discuss the rapidly approaching Iowa caucuses and the state of the GOP primary.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So Cabot, you traveled to Iowa. We'll get to that soon. But first, where do things stand nationally in the race for the White House?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, so before we get into that conversation, it's important to stress over and over, it's still early. We got a lot of time to go, but at the moment, it is largely a two-man race with Donald Trump comfortably ahead of Florida's Ron DeSantis.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Most national polls show Trump sitting in the high 40s or low 50s, with DeSantis in the low 20s. From there, it's a cluster of candidates in the mid-single digits, including Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Again, it's still very early, but the presence of established figures like Trump and DeSantis has resulted in less volatility in the polls than we've seen in years past.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Though that is expected to change in the coming months.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, now when do we expect the polls to start shifting? So typically, they really start to move once we get into debate season, and voters get a chance to see candidates duke it out on the national stage.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The first debate will be held August 23rd, and the question at the moment is who exactly will be on the stage.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In order to qualify, candidates must have at least 1% in three national polls or early primary state polls, and they'll also need 40,000 unique donors with at least 200 from 20 different states.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That is leading some candidates to get creative.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, for example, is offering $20 gift cards to anyone who donates a dollar.
--:-- Georgia Howe: While Vivek Ramaswamy is launching a new fundraising initiative that will allow any individual to keep 10% of the total money they raise for his campaign.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Then Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is offering off a raffle. Anyone who donates $1 to his campaign could win tickets to see Lionel Messi's first MLS game in Miami.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So candidates are getting creative.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: At the moment, the candidates on the cusp of making the stage are Vice President Mike Pence, Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and Governor Burgum.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The six candidates who have already qualified or appear well on their way are Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Now, let's talk about the Democrat side.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, the fact that we're even talking about the Democratic primary shows just how extraordinary this race is.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Typically, an incumbent president cruises through the primary with little to no opposition.
--:-- Georgia Howe: For context, President Trump won 99.9% of delegates in the 2020 primary, while President Obama also won 99% in 2012.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The only serious primary challenge that we've seen in the last few decades came in 1992 when Pat Buchanan pulled in 25% of the primary vote against then incumbent George H.W. Bush.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And it appears President Biden now has a similar challenge on his hands, as RFK, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is currently pulling in around 15 to 20% of the Democratic primary vote.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Now, while the odds in the end of Biden actually losing the primary are still quite low, any money he spends fending off a Democratic challenger is money he will not have for the general.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So Republicans are certainly thrilled to see RFK polling so well.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So let's get back to the Republican primary.
--:-- Georgia Howe: All eyes are going to be on Iowa over the next few months.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: You recently traveled there to speak with voters. Set the scene there for us.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So from a polling perspective, the numbers in Iowa look almost identical to what we're seeing nationally.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But if you look throughout the history of Iowa, polling at this point is often a terrible way of predicting the eventual winner.
--:-- Georgia Howe: On that note I was in Iowa last weekend for the Family Leadership Summit hosted by Tucker Carlson And one thing that really stood out was how few people had a favorite candidate
--:-- [Sound of people speaking in the background]
--:-- Georgia Howe: While many had a name or two come to mind first the message I heard over and over was that they were waiting to hear from everyone before making up their mind.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I love Trump because he's a little bit of a wild guy. So I like what he does, but I do also like DeSantis. So I'd be happy with either of those.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Anybody but Biden.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, I've got two. It's a split right now. It's between Vivek and Tim Scott right now.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I'm leaning a little bit towards DeSantis right now.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Trump, I think, is still a contender. But DeSantis, we'll see what he can do.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I wasn't impressed really coming into this really with anybody. But Nikki Haley did a fabulous job.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Mike Pence. Our favorite would be Donald Trump. Definitely Trump.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The two that impressed me the most today so far have been Nikki Haley and I can't say his name. Swore mommy. Yeah, yeah, he was great.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So of those you spoke to, it looks like they really ran the gambit.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, that's a good way of putting it. Those are just the folks who gave a name.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The majority said they were keeping their options open and didn't even give a name.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And that's the other big message I heard all weekend.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Iowans are proud of their status as the first state to make their choices known and do things a little differently than most.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Rather than a traditional primary where voters make their pick from a voting booth and leave, Iowa has a caucus.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So on election day, voters in each precinct gather in gymnasiums, theaters, churches, or even private homes.
--:-- Georgia Howe: To kick things off, a grassroots representative from each campaign typically gives a final pitch to those gathered, and then an informal secret vote is held.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Oftentimes, caucus goers will simply write their vote down on a piece of paper and hand it in.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Once the votes are counted, delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated based on the final percentage for each candidate.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I don't really see a frontrunner yet.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I was, you know, we're the home of the caucuses, the original caucuses. So we are more than willing to hear everyone say what they have to say.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And, you know, we'll give it time. And by that time rolls around, I think people will have their decisions made.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Everyone I've talked to is open. And they're saying, hey, let's see. Let's see. Everybody's coming through.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: You know, love everybody coming through and sharing the candidates. And let's just see what's out there to offer.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Do you see an opening where I would say, hey, you know, right now we're not really listening to what the polls say. We're going to make up our minds later.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I think Iowans traditionally have done that where they, you know, they give the candidates a chance.
--:-- Georgia Howe: You know, I think it is an open book.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: One thing I've learned about the polls is they're really not true.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So it all depends on the day of election, how people respond in the moment they can change.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And so I think it's anybody's ballgame right now.
--:-- Georgia Howe: In your community, do you get a sense of who a favorite is? What are you hearing from people around your community?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I don't yet. It's early and the thinning process will begin and we'll start to narrow it down by spring probably.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I feel like it's kind of a wait and see. We're still trying to see what the field is going to look like.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Obviously, it's still very early.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, you also spoke to voters about the issues that they're weighing as they make their decisions. What stood out?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, this was fascinating. So the number one issue I heard about was immigration.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Nearly every voter I spoke with throughout the weekend brought it up as a key factor for winning their vote, while the economy and social issues like abortion were close behind.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: First, border security, southern border. Somebody's going to do something to close the border. Absolutely have to close the border.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I see the human trafficking issue and the border as key to my heart, and our border must be closed in order to prevent that.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Immigration, abortion, gender identity, pretty much all the things in the news these days.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Pro-life, definitely pro-life. Also the border.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Things are expensive I am a nurse practitioner and I see the repercussions of the economy on the families that I see
--:-- Georgia Howe: And people are struggling We have four kids family of six I homeschool stay at home one income family
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And the last three years have been nothing but hardships for us when it comes to the financial economics.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I mean, our grocery bill went up over weekly, $150 extra, weekly.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, we talked a little earlier about the upcoming debates. President Trump has hinted that he may skip them.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, there were plenty of folks who seemed to think that he was bluffing, though it is worth pointing out he did skip a debate in the 2016 primaries.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So there is reason to believe that he's being serious.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Among Trump supporters, the general consensus was that they'd like to see him on stage, but that he's earned the right to stay out.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But there were plenty of Iowans throughout the weekend who did not take kindly to the news.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: President Trump has said that he will likely not join the debate stage at this point.
--:-- Georgia Howe: As someone that's looking to figure out who you want to caucus for, what do you make of that?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I think that's Trump in a nutshell. He feels like he doesn't need to be around the other people.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I think he thinks he's got it. He's got the win.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I think it's unwise to do that. And I think for Iowans, Iowans I've talked to, most of them really have taken that personally in the sense of, well, it's almost that arrogant.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I'm too good. I'm already going to get a nomination. So why should I come? Why should I give time to these kind of these peasants below me on the stage?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And a lot of Iowans don't take kindly to that.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I think it's a mistake. I think everyone that's a serious contender should be on the stage telling us why we should vote for them, why they have earned our trust.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: As someone who has voted for him twice, I'm not impressed with him at all, and I just think he needs to go away.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's my impression. We've seen him in action. We know what he can accomplish.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So if he's going to let the other people fight it out for second place, I think that's what he's doing.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, you also spoke with some of the candidates themselves. So in no particular order, what were some of your takeaways?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So we sat down with Vivek Ramaswamy, who has really come out of nowhere as a serious contender.
--:-- Georgia Howe: He started the race as an unknown entrepreneur and has climbed steadily in the polls.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Some show him in third place nationally.
--:-- Georgia Howe: For his part, Ramaswamy said he's actually been surprised with how quickly he's gained support and laid out what he sees as a path to victory.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: What's your path to victory? What do you see happening in Iowa and beyond?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Top three in Iowa, top two in New Hampshire. Both of those exceed the expectation of what an outsider with me who started with zero name ID was supposed to do.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I think that puts us on a trajectory to win.
--:-- Georgia Howe: To be really honest, I am well ahead of where our team expected me to be when we started this race.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We wanted to be in third place by about Thanksgiving. We're in third place in many of the national polls now, sitting in July.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I also asked Ramaswamy for his take on President Trump's hesitance to join the debate stage.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Here's what he had to say.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I have no problem with that. In the early debates, it really could matter one way or another whether or not he participates.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: He's been on that debate stage many times. And frankly, he was president of this country for four years.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What we really need is to sort out the differences between people who don't know what a presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy or others stand for.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's what I'm going to use it for.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, Ramaswamy spent much of his time on stage in Iowa talking about his plan for ending U.S. support in Ukraine and how he thinks it differs from other candidates.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, what the other Republican presidential candidates are proposing is largely identical to what Biden is doing, continuing support for Ukraine.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I would end the war. I would do it on terms that require Putin to exit his military partnership with China.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The China-Russia military alliance is the top threat that we face.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Nobody in either party is talking about it.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's going to take big concessions to Putin to get.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, I'm willing to make them.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Freeze the current lines of control. You have to make sure that we make a hard commitment that NATO will never admit Ukraine to NATO.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Those are big wins for Putin, but it'll be a bigger win for us to pull him out of that alliance with China.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I mean, we fund Zelensky, right? Zelensky is like a customer of the United States right We supply him effectively
--:-- Georgia Howe: And so I going to do this deal whether or not Zelensky loves that deal
--:-- Cabot Phillips: It happens to be the case that I believe that the best outcome for Zelensky as well
--:-- Georgia Howe: I also got the chance to talk with South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who used his time with the voters to try and strike a more optimistic tone, touting his life story as the embodiment of the American dream.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We are living in a time when there is this pervasive force, radical left, parts of corporate America that continues to force this culture of grievance on the American people.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And along with the culture of grievance comes this drug of victimhood, the narcotic of despair.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The folks actually have figured out that you can make a profit off of conflict.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I want to stand in the gap and say the truth of my life disproves the lies of the radical forces that believe that we should be in constant conflict with each other.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, one area where Pence really stood out compared to others in the GOP field as he was speaking on stage was on Ukraine.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: While others have said they'd cut support to Zlinsky as president, he's been clear that he'd continue to support the Ukrainian war effort and ensure victory over Putin.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We're not supporting the Ukrainian military because of their version of democracy.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We're supporting them because I truly believe that if the Russian military overruns Ukraine, it will not be long before they cross a border of a NATO ally that we will have to send our armed forces in to fight.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I mean, look, we've made real progress. We've only spent 3% of our defense budget supporting Ukraine.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And in one and a half short years, Russia's gone from the second most powerful military in the world to the second most powerful military in Ukraine.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's real progress. And I think by giving the Ukrainian military what they need to repel the Russian invasion, we also send a deafening message to China.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So what would be different for me is I'll explain to the American people what our national interest is, what our obligations are as leader of the free world.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And I'll more quickly provide support for the Ukrainian military.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Joe Biden says that we're there as long as it takes.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, look, it shouldn't take that long. We're the arsenal of democracy. We can provide them with the means to repel that Russian invasion.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I also asked Pence about an issue that we've talked about frequently on the show, gender transition surgery among minors.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: He said as president that he would support federal legislation to ban the practice nationwide.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, I think we need to ban chemical or surgical transgender treatment for any kids under the age of 18.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In the state of Indiana, you can't get a tattoo before you're 18.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I mean, we put age limits on things because we know that until you reach the age of majority, you don't have a full appreciation for all of the consequences of your actions.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And as president of the United States, I'd be prepared to support federal legislation that said that anyone under the age of 18 who's been caught up in this radical gender ideology message that no medical professional could administer chemical or surgical transgender treatment.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And finally, we talked about the potential absence of President Trump on the debate stage.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Here's his take.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I hope he's there. People ask me sometimes how I think about debating Donald Trump.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And I remind them I've debated Donald Trump thousands of times.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I just never with the cameras on.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: I look forward to it.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So now we begin the countdown for the first debate and the Iowa caucus after.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We've got a lot to cover in the next few months, Georgia.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right, it'll be here before we know it.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Anytime.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That was Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And this has been a Sunday edition of Morning Wire.
