--:-- John Bickley: Millions of Ukrainians are fleeing the destruction of war. In my home, I was a respected person. Now I'm just dust. We speak to Ukrainian refugees and volunteers there to help in the humanitarian crisis. I'm John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Friday, March 11th, and this is Morning Wire. Inflation has reached a 40-year high, oil and wheat prices are skyrocketing, and the war in Ukraine is causing global uncertainty. Could all of these factors push the U.S. economy into a recession? And WNBA player Brittany Greiner has been detained in Russia for alleged possession of cannabis oil. How will her detention play into the political posturing between Russia and the U.S.? Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
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--:-- John Bickley: The fighting in Ukraine is taking a significant toll on civilians. The UN estimates that more than 2 million people have fled the country, and neighboring countries like Poland are struggling to take in the flood of refugees. The Daily Wire sent a reporter to Ukraine to take stock of what's happening on the ground. Joining us now is Daily Wire correspondent Cassie Dillon. She's been traveling between Ukraine and Poland over the past few days and has visited refugee camps and ridden along with humanitarian missions in and out of Ukraine. Welcome, Cassie. Thank you.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: Thank you.
--:-- John Bickley: Cassie, I know things are moving quickly in the war zone there. Tell us about what you've seen on the ground with the humanitarian effort.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: Honestly, it's been one of the most heartbreaking experiences I've ever had. Yesterday, I had the opportunity to get on a bus with humanitarian aid workers and bring supplies from Germany to the city of Lviv in Ukraine. And it was just amazing what we saw. We saw so many people lined up trying to get into Poland from Ukraine. We saw hundreds of thousands of refugees all over the area in the city of Lviv. On our way back, we filled the same bus up with refugees making their way to Poland. All of them were allowed one suitcase. And while they were sad and angry about having to evacuate their homeland, there still was this sense of optimism where they were still trying to stay strong. And it could be because they were traveling with children, or maybe the situation hasn't really processed in their minds yet.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: I spoke to an 18-year-old college student who was fleeing with just one bag to her name. Are you scared? No, I am optimistic. Girl, I am strong. What do you want? I want peace.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: I also spoke with Lilith, a 36-year-old English teacher who was traveling with her 13-year-old daughter. They escaped from a small town about 80 kilometers outside Kiev. Why leave now and not earlier? Because maybe it sounds stupid, but for the last moment, we didn't believe that this could happen to us. And we were sure that one day, maximum two, okay, maybe three, and this is going to stop. It's my duty as a mother to think about my daughter's life. She like many women I met had to leave behind her husband because the fighting age men are required to stay in the country. She told me that it was one of the hardest things she has ever had to do. I left my heart back then because my parents are there and my husband is there, and I don't even know if I'm going to see him again.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: Lilith also said that she'll probably go to Germany because she heard that Poland is no longer taking people in. What did you see in your hometown? Did you see the bombs? Did you see things? Yeah, yeah, destroyed houses and the rockets when they are flying. And you are like praying, like, please not into my house. It's the most terrifying feeling I have had in my life. I was born in USSR and I was raised with the idea that all of us are one nation, actually. And we are brothers. If this man calls us brothers and sisters and he comes to destroy our houses and kill our children and women, Can you imagine what he can do to other parts of the world he thinks are his enemies?
--:-- Cassie Dillon: Along with refugees, you've also seen a lot of the volunteers there to help in the crisis, right? There were so many people at the refugee centers, cooking food, passing out water, and helping any way they could. We even saw people putting signs all across the walls, offering places to stay, and offering transport to whatever country people needed to go to. And surprisingly, many of these people do not work for any relief organization. They just came here on their own, showed up, and offered to help any way they could.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: I also met this 32-year-old man named Rob Tinning from the UK who drove all across Europe in a van he filled with his friends with clothes and food and needed supplies. Why did you come here? Just to try and do our little bit. We'll see on the telly, obviously, everything that's going on, and you feel a bit helpless. Just wanted to help in any way we can. And people are literally packing up their lives and leaving their home, their homeland. It should never happen in the 21st century. It just shouldn't.
--:-- Cassie Dillon: Well, Cassie, thank you so much for bringing us a firsthand look at the situation on the ground and this really awful humanitarian crisis over there. Of course. Thank you.
--:-- John Bickley: That was Daily Wire correspondent Cassie Dillon. Coming up, will the war in Ukraine spark a recession? This show is brought to you by Good Ranchers. Over 85% of the grass-fed beef sold in stores and online is imported from overseas. You're paying a premium for imported goods that don't even get USDA graded. That's why you should get all your beef, chicken, and seafood from Good Ranchers. They sell beef that's USDA prime and upper choice, chicken that's better than organic, and premium seafood. Good Ranchers deliver steakhouse quality to your door. Support American business one delicious bite of steak at a time. So head on over to GoodRanchers.com slash wire or use code wire at checkout to get their biggest offer ever. $30 off your first order plus free express shipping. Visit GoodRanchers.com slash wire today.
--:-- John Bickley: Even before Russia's war with Ukraine, economists warned that an economic recession appeared to be on the horizon. The military conflict has some experts saying the economic pain will be coming sooner than anticipated. The Daily Wire's Ben Johnson looked at their predictions and is here to break them down for us. Good morning, Ben. Good morning, John.
--:-- Ben Johnson: First of all, Ben, what's the technical definition of a recession? Great question. A recession occurs when the economy contracts for two straight quarters or a six-month period. That means the economy could experience negative growth for the next several months without technically sliding into a full recession. So it has to be a sustained contraction.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Do economists believe that going to happen here? Many of them do, yes. George W Bush economic advisor, Lawrence Lindsay, put the likelihood of a recession at more than 50 percent. And in case anyone thinks that's a partisan talking point, so did Lawrence Summers, who was Treasury Secretary for President Bill Clinton and an economic advisor to Barack Obama. So there's bipartisan consensus. The only thing most economists debate is when the recession is going to happen. As far back as last year, Deutsche Bank's chief economist and experts at Chapman University forecast a recession could take place sometime in 2023. Other economists placed it in 2024, 2025. They said inflation would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which often triggers a recession.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Now, how has the war in particular impacted those estimates? This conflict made it much more likely we'll experience a recession this year. Oil's already trading at near-record highs, and it could be headed into uncharted territory. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both predict that if the U.S. and Europe fully ban the importation of Russian oil, prices will increase to $200 a barrel. Others put that as high as $240 a barrel. That's important because almost all recent recessions have followed oil price shocks, as we saw in 1973, 1979, 1990, and 2007.
--:-- Ben Johnson: And in a global economy, the recession doesn't necessarily have to start in the U.S. to affect Americans, as Andy Lippow of Lippow Oil Associates recently explained. And in fact, if there's no action, the only way to solve the problem is to have higher prices cause demand destruction around the world. And my greatest fear is that these prices have risen so fast that you cause a recession in Europe and Latin America that rolls on into the United States.
--:-- Ben Johnson: With this in mind, Bank of America predicted a recession within the next six months. And Campbell Faulkner of OTC Global Holdings told Fox Business on Thursday, quote, I'm basically a data scientist and I work in commodities, and I think we're already in one.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Are there any good signs? Ironically, the interest rate hike was intended to throttle down inflation. Also, Mark Zandy of Moody's Analytics believes Americans built up $2.3 trillion of excess savings during the pandemic, which could be enough to stave off a contraction if consumers feel confident enough to spend. And J.P. Morgan's David Kelly said the millions of unfilled jobs in the U.S. economy will absorb a lot of the shock as people return to work. But at the same time, the Biden administration is still touting its $5 trillion Build Back Better plan as a way to solve inflation. Worst yet, Washington doesn't appear to have a plan for incentivizing entrepreneurship or job creation in the private sector.
--:-- Ben Johnson: So we have several economists who are forecasting recession, but how confident are they in those predictions? Well, none of this is set in stone, and economics is not an exact science. As the old joke says, economists have predicted 30 out of the last five recessions. Right. But when you look at the fundamentals of the economy, inflation at its highest level in four decades, gas prices rising, uncertainty in the commodities market, and the Fed tightening the money supply, it doesn't look good. No, it doesn't.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Thanks, John. That's Daily Wire reporter Ben Johnson.
--:-- John Bickley: WNBA player Brittany Greiner was detained by Russian authorities at an airport near Moscow after cannabis oil was allegedly found in her luggage. Here with the latest is Daily Wire sports reporter Joe Morgan. Okay, Joe, we have one of the WNBA's biggest stars detained in Russia. So what's going on here?
--:-- Joe Morgan: Yeah, Georgia. So this is a troubling story that goes back a few weeks actually. On Saturday the New York Times reported that Greiner was detained in February on drug charges at an airport near Moscow. Greiner plays for the Phoenix WNBA team but she also plays for a Russian team during the WNBA offseason. Greiner was detained after Russian Federal Customs Service officials searched her luggage, saying they found vape cartridges containing hashish oil, which is derived from cannabis.
--:-- Joe Morgan: So you said she was detained in February, so she's been in the hands of Russian authorities for at least a week or a few weeks now? Yeah, several days at least. There are reports that she has been in custody now for actually about three weeks. Greiner could face up to 10 years in prison for the crime. With the invasion of Ukraine, Americans and Russia have been told to leave the country. The WNBA has said that all players competing in Russia are now out of the country with the exception of Greiner. Now, it's obviously never good to be detained in a foreign country, but now must be a really dangerous time to be an American detained in Russia.
--:-- Joe Morgan: Yeah, it's the worst possible timing. So has the Biden administration commented on Greiner being detained in Russia? Not specifically on Greiner, but on Sunday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the administration stands, quote, ready to provide every possible assistance to Americans detained in Russia. He, like I said, didn't mention Greiner specifically there. Additionally, Evelyn Farkas, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia and Ukraine, told Yahoo Sports that Russia could use Greiner as a form of blackmail. Here's what Farkas said, and I think this is worth quoting at length. If we want her out of jail, Russia is going to have some terms. It could be a prisoner swap. They also could use it as an implicit threat or blackmail to get us to do something or not do something. Either way, they find it useful.
--:-- Joe Morgan: So a prisoner swap. Yeah. Now, Greiner is a very well-known player in the WNBA, correct? Yeah, so Greiner was a big-time star at Baylor University winning a national championship with the Bears. She was then drafted by the Mercury as top pick in the 2013 draft and has averaged nearly 18 points, eight rebounds and three blocks per game over that time. She also won the 2014 WNBA championship with Phoenix and has won two gold medals as a member of the 2016 and 2021 U.S. Olympic women's basketball teams. Well, let's hope she's able to return home safely because that's a pretty scary situation. Yeah, it is, no doubt.
--:-- Joe Morgan: Joe, thanks for reporting. Anytime. That's Daily Wire sports reporter Joe Morgan.
--:-- John Bickley: Another story we're tracking this week. The House passed a $1.5 trillion spending bill this week, which includes aid for Ukraine and funding to keep the government open through September. Billions of dollars in COVID funding was taken out of the bill after backlash from both Republicans and Democrats. And for updates on Ukraine, here's Daily Wire's Ian Howarth. Well, according to UNICEF, 2.3 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the fighting began. One million of these are children and 1.5 million refugees are now in Poland alone. With more Russian forces encircling Ukrainian cities, there's growing pressure to further support Ukraine in an aerial battle against Russia. Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Poland and insisted that they are engaged in a unified effort behind Ukraine, despite the U.S. rejecting Poland's proposal this week to send Meg 29 jets to Ukraine.
--:-- John Bickley: If you like this episode and are interested in hearing more, Subscribe to Morning Wire on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you're listening, and give us a five-star review. That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know. If you like this podcast, subscribe to our Morning Wire newsletter, available exclusively to Daily Wire members. Use code MORNINGWIRE to try a Reader's Pass membership and get your first month for only 99 cents.
