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--:-- Steve Inskeep: President Trump's trade war prompted even more market declines, which he dismissed. I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.
--:-- A Martinez: What's making investors panic, and why have the odds of a recession gone up?
--:-- Steve Inskeep: I'm Steve Inskeep with A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: The Trump administration has a midnight deadline to return a man deported to El Salvador in what a federal judge called a grievous error. So why has the Department of Justice put its attorney on administrative leave?
--:-- A Martinez: On day one, I issued a memo that you are to vigorously advocate on behalf of the United States.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: And a second child in Texas has died of measles. It's not surprising that in an outbreak of this size that we're starting to see deaths.
--:-- A Martinez: Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.
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--:-- Steve Inskeep: We find out soon just how much lower the world financial system may go. Markets have fallen since last Wednesday when President Trump launched a trade war against most of the world.
--:-- A Martinez: Asian and European markets fell overnight, and not by a little. Japan's Nikkei index dropped almost 8% of its value.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Here in the United States, economists are increasing their odds of a recession. The investment bank Goldman Sachs says we're close to 50-50 odds.
--:-- A Martinez: And in making that estimate, Goldman assumes that Trump will not go through with a plan for the biggest tariffs to hit on Wednesday. If that should happen, Goldman simply forecasts recession.
--:-- Maria Aspin: U.S. markets erased $6 trillion in value late last week. Maria, what are we looking at this week?
--:-- A Martinez: Well, last week was pretty terrible, but it's looking like this week may be even worse. By the end of last week, the Dow had fallen almost 8%, with the other major indices tumbling even further.
--:-- Maria Aspin: The tech-having NASDAQ is now in a bear market, meaning it's fallen more than 20% from a recent high. And it's looking like the pain will continue today.
--:-- A Martinez: We'll get a clearer idea later this morning when U.S. markets open. But when the futures markets opened last night, meaning that traders could start putting in their orders to buy and sell prices immediately turned red.
--:-- Maria Aspin: By early this morning, Dow futures were down around 1 point or more than 3. And it's not just stocks. Oil futures are down, and Bitcoin, which trades around the clock, is down below $100,000.
--:-- A Martinez: Remember, it hit $100,000 not that long ago, weeks after President Trump was elected, on the industry's hopes for a more crypto-friendly president.
--:-- Maria Aspin: I remember a lot of Wall Street figures backed Trump last year. And what are they saying now?
--:-- A Martinez: Well, Wall Street has been slow to speak out, but today or last night, billionaire fund manager and Trump supporter Bill Ackman, who endorsed the president during last year's election, has warned on X that the U.S. is destroying confidence in the U.S. as a place to do business.
--:-- Maria Aspin: And he's called for a 90-day pause on tariffs to avoid what he calls economic nuclear war.
--:-- A Martinez: And he is just one of many people sounding the alarm.
--:-- Maria Aspin: NPR last night talked to Mark Zandy, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. He says Wall Street is panicked.
--:-- Mark Zandy: Investors are very nervous about what's going on. I'm sure they're calling lawmakers and the White House to pressure them to come to some kind of terms with other countries over these tariffs, bring this global trade war to an end, because if they don't, soon the economy is going to go into recession.
--:-- A Martinez: And he's hardly alone with that warning. The investment bank J.P. Morgan also warned last week that if Trump keeps the tariffs, they could push the U.S. and the world into a recession.
--:-- Maria Aspin: Even if things don't get that bad, this current market sell-off could have real consequences and real pain for most consumers.
--:-- A Martinez: About 60% of U.S. households own stocks. And a lot of people have their retirement accounts and other long-term savings invested in the market.
--:-- Maria Aspin: And also, let's not forget, these new tariffs are widely expected to raise prices on almost everything that Americans import.
--:-- A Martinez: Okay, so a lot of warnings from Wall Street for the president. What has he said about the market sell-off?
--:-- Maria Aspin: Trump has mostly shrugged it off.
--:-- A Martinez: Yesterday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS that the tariffs are here to stay.
--:-- Maria Aspin: And then last night, Trump was asked by reporters about how much pain he'd be willing to tolerate. And this is what he said.
--:-- Trump: I think your question is so stupid. I mean, I think it's a, I don't want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.
--:-- Maria Aspin: But while Trump is calling these sweeping tariffs medicine, almost everyone else is warning that they are bad for consumers, investors, businesses, and the global economy.
--:-- A Martinez: All right, that's NPR's Maria Aspin. Thanks a lot.
--:-- Maria Aspin: Thank you.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: The Trump administration has until midnight to return a man who was deported to a mega prison in El Salvador by mistake.
--:-- A Martinez: A federal judge ordered the administration to bring back Quilmar Armando Albrego Garcia, who was arrested and deported last month in what the judge described as an illegal act.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: The Justice Department is appealing that order, and it placed the attorney who argued its case on administrative leave.
--:-- A Martinez: NPR correspondent Joel Rose joins us now with more.
--:-- Joel Rose: So, Joel, let's start with the judge's order. Why did she direct the Trump administration to bring him back?
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Yeah, the Trump administration has admitted that he was deported by mistake because of what they describe as an administrative error.
--:-- Joel Rose: Abrego Garcia had been living in Maryland for over a decade. He has a form of legal protection known as withholding of removal.
--:-- A Martinez: In spite of that, ICE officers arrested Abrego Garcia last month, and a few days later, he was deported to El Salvador, along with hundreds of other men accused of being gang members.
--:-- Joel Rose: But the Justice Department argues there is nothing they can do now because Abrego Garcia is already out of the U.S.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Federal district judge Paula Zinies rejected that argument.
--:-- Joel Rose: She found that his arrest was quote, wholly lawless. His ongoing detention in Salvadoran prison quote, shocks the conscience.
--:-- A Martinez: She noted that the U.S. is paying El Salvador to hold these prisoners.
--:-- Joel Rose: And she ordered the Trump administration to bring him back to Maryland by midnight tonight.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: What has the Trump administration said?
--:-- Joel Rose: They are not backing down. The White House insists that Abrego Garcia is a member of the Salvadoran gang called MS-13, though his lawyers deny that.
--:-- A Martinez: They say that allegation dates back to the time he was arrested in 2019 in the parking lot of a Home Depot.
--:-- Joel Rose: His lawyers say the gang allegation is based largely on a confidential informant who accused Abrego Garcia of being a member of the gang in New York, which is a state where he has never lived.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Abrego Garcia's lawyers say he has no criminal record in any country.
--:-- Joel Rose: Nevertheless, the White House has doubled down, calling Abrego Garcia a leader in MS-13 and a convicted gang member.
--:-- A Martinez: But if the Trump administration has evidence to support that, they have not put it on the record in this case.
--:-- Joel Rose: Judge Zini said during the hearing that without any evidence like a criminal indictment or complaint, these gang allegations are just, quote unquote, chatter.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Joel, I saw over the weekend the Justice Department put the attorney who argued the case on Friday on administrative leave. Why did that happen?
--:-- Joel Rose: This is remarkable. The Justice Department lawyer, Erez Riveni, argued the case on Friday.
--:-- A Martinez: Riveni has argued many cases on immigration for administrations of both parties.
--:-- Joel Rose: And he had some very candid answers for Judge Zinni's.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: The judge asked him why the administration did not try to return Abrego Garcia to the U.S. when they first learned about this mistake.
--:-- Joel Rose: Riveny said he had asked his clients inside the Trump administration the very same thing and that, quote, I have not received to date an answer that I find satisfactory.
--:-- A Martinez: The next day, he was put on leave, administrative leave by the Justice Department.
--:-- Joel Rose: Here is Attorney General Pam Bondi explaining why yesterday on Fox News Sunday.
--:-- Pam Bondi: I firmly said on day one, I issued a memo that you are to vigorously advocate on behalf of the United States.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: He shouldn't have taken the case. He shouldn't have argued it if that's what he was going to do.
--:-- Joel Rose: So, Joel, what happens now?
--:-- A Martinez: The Justice Department is appealing.
--:-- Joel Rose: They argue that courts do not have jurisdiction over this case because Abrego Garcia is in the custody of El Salvador.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: And essentially, there is nothing that Judge Zinni's can do.
--:-- Joel Rose: The Justice Department is asking the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals for an emergency stay.
--:-- A Martinez: But if they do not get one, that midnight deadline will still be in place.
--:-- Joel Rose: And then the big question is whether they will comply with it.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: All right.
--:-- A Martinez: A second child in Texas has died of measles, according to state health officials.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attended the child's funeral on Sunday and identified the child as eight-year-old Daisy Hildebrand.
--:-- A Martinez: Until this year, the United States had not reported a measles death for nearly a decade.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Now an outbreak centered in Texas has 481 confirmed cases.
--:-- A Martinez: NPR's Maria Godoy has been following all this for us.
--:-- Maria Godoy: Maria, the second child to die of measles this year, we've learned that she died on Thursday. What else do we know about her?
--:-- A Martinez: Well, Texas health officials say the girl was not vaccinated and had no reported underlying health conditions.
--:-- Maria Godoy: She was hospitalized after getting sick with measles, and she died from what doctors described as measles pulmonary failure, which basically means the lungs can't really provide enough oxygen anymore.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: And is this a common complication from the measles?
--:-- Maria Godoy: You know, measles is a respiratory illness, and it can often lead to serious lung complications, including pneumonia and super infections of the lung, as well as other complications like brain swelling.
--:-- A Martinez: Vaccines work so well that many of us have forgotten just how devastating measles can be.
--:-- Maria Godoy: This latest death serves as a terrible reminder.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: I mean, so how worried should people be for the possibility of more deaths?
--:-- Maria Godoy: Well, before the first measles vaccines were developed in the early 1960s, measles used to kill 400 to 500 people in this country every year.
--:-- A Martinez: Even now, about one or two out of every 1 measles cases are fatal.
--:-- Maria Godoy: I spoke with Dr. Adam Ratner. He's a pediatric infectious disease specialist in New York.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: And he is unfortunately not surprised by these fatalities.
--:-- Maria Godoy: Every time a child gets the measles, you roll the dice and you have a one in a thousand or a two in a thousand chance of that child dying.
--:-- A Martinez: And so it's not surprising that in an outbreak of this size that we are starting to see deaths.
--:-- Maria Godoy: Ratner says these are deaths that vaccines could prevent.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: And, you know, vaccination rates have been trending downwards nationwide for several years.
--:-- Maria Godoy: He says, especially in areas like Gaines County, Texas, where the outbreak is centered and where vaccination rates are just above 80 percent.
--:-- A Martinez: That just sets the stage for outbreaks because measles is extraordinarily contagious.
--:-- Maria Godoy: How has the Trump administration responded to all this?
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Well, Secretary Kennedy traveled to Texas on Sunday in a post on X.
--:-- Maria Godoy: He said he went to console the family of the child who died.
--:-- A Martinez: He said the CDC is deploying teams to Texas to help with the outbreak, and he called the measles vaccine, quote, the most effective way to prevent the spread of measles.
--:-- Maria Godoy: And that is notable because in prior statements, he's called vaccines a personal choice.
--:-- A Martinez: But in another post-Sunday, Kennedy praised doctors' use of treatments that have no evidence to support them when it comes to measles.
--:-- Maria Godoy: And, you know, meanwhile, President Trump was asked about the outbreak on Sunday night.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: He downplayed the size, but he said if it progresses, the U.S. will have to take what he called very strong action.
--:-- A Martinez: And I should note that we are seeing these outbreaks at a time when the administration has moved to cut more than $11 billion in public health funding to states.
--:-- Maria Godoy: So, Maria, what now with measles in the U.S.?
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Well, so measles was declared eliminated in this country in 2000, but this year we have five states where measles is currently spreading.
--:-- Maria Godoy: In fact, the U.S. has already seen more than 600 measles cases this year.
--:-- A Martinez: That's more than double the number of cases it reported in all of last year, and it's only April.
--:-- Maria Godoy: NPR's Maria Godoy, thank you very much, Maria.
--:-- Maria Godoy: My pleasure.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: That's a first for Monday, April 7th. I'm Ian Martinez.
--:-- A Martinez: And I'm Steve Inskeep.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Your next listen is Consider This from NPR.
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--:-- Steve Inskeep: Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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