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--:-- John Bickley: Welcome to Morning Wire. I'm John Bickley, and this is a weekend edition. Today, we're joined by retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery to discuss the threat posed by China.
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--:-- John Bickley: Now, let's talk about China. The threat posed by China looms over many of the foreign policy moves by the Trump administration, including trade deals and arms sales to U.S. allies in the Asian Pacific.
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--:-- John Bickley: Joining us now to discuss U.S. defense policy as it relates to China is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. He's with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and he's also recently traveled to Taiwan to meet with its political and military leadership.
--:-- John Bickley: Rear Admiral, thank you so much for joining us.
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Thank you for having me.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, we've seen reports that China is limiting the supply of critical minerals to Western defense companies. What do you know about these restrictions and what do they mean to the U.S. military?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: These are serious. I mean, this is a serious leverage play by China to get us to adjust our export controls on them. And the reason it's a serious leverage play is that our defense industrial base has become very dependent on critical materials from China.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, on that second front there, what actions are we taking right now to start to shore it up from our end in terms of production or access to other markets?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Yeah, this is a tough issue. You know, it took us 25 years to become this dependent on China. It's going to take us a few years to get out of this dependence. But it starts with aggressive industrial policy. What I mean by that is what we saw recently with the Department of Defense purchasing a producer, a mineral, you know, a stake and a mineral producer.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, China is really famous or infamous for playing the long game with a lot of these things. It takes a lot of patience from our end and looking forward into the future. It takes effort. It takes political will and commitment from both sides of the aisle, I think.
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Now, you recently returned from Taiwan where you had meetings with senior officials that included the president senior military leadership. What were your most significant takeaways from your meetings with those military and political leaders in Taiwan?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: First, they very appreciative of the United States. They understand the United States is their key ally. No one else sells them weapons. No one else stands by them when they're threatened by the Chinese.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, on that second front there, what actions are we taking right now to start to shore it up from our end in terms of production or access to other markets?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Yeah, this is a tough issue. You know, it took us 25 years to become this dependent on China. It's going to take us a few years to get out of this dependence. But it starts with aggressive industrial policy. What I mean by that is what we saw recently with the Department of Defense purchasing a producer, a mineral, you know, a stake and a mineral producer.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, China is really famous or infamous for playing the long game with a lot of these things. It takes a lot of patience from our end and looking forward into the future. It takes effort. It takes political will and commitment from both sides of the aisle, I think.
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: They really understand that in addition to preparing for the big military, that most likely, most dangerous scenario of a cross-strait invasion, they also have to prepare for the most likely scenario, which is where China attacks their societal resilience, attacks their financial systems, their communication systems, their energy systems with diplomatic, economic, cyber and influence operations, not military attacks.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, China is really famous or infamous for playing the long game with a lot of these things. It takes a lot of patience from our end and looking forward into the future. It takes effort. It takes political will and commitment from both sides of the aisle, I think.
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Yeah, for sure. Our arms sales, our foreign military sales overseas are hampered by a bureaucratic process inside the Department of Defense and Department of State. They have to work together. They don't do a great job.
--:-- John Bickley: Are there parallels between the support Ukraine needs and what Taiwan might need in the future for a conflict? How can U.S. policy sort of evolve to be more proactive rather than reactive in both these theaters?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Yeah, that's a great question. I'd throw Israel in as well. I mean, these are three beleaguered democracies that the United States is clearly the primary provider of weapon systems to.
--:-- John Bickley: What additional steps should the U.S. take right now to deter a potential Chinese military move against Taiwan?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: I think we have to look at it in three different bins. One is making Taiwan more resilient. That's both weapon systems and societal resilience. It's making sure they have the right anti-ship cruise missiles, they have the right mines, they have the right anti-armor and short-range air defense gear, but also that they have good cyber defense, good electrical power, good reliability, good sources of LNG, that's liquid natural gas, to run their systems.
--:-- John Bickley: On that final note there about exercising together, have we not done that because that would be seen as an act of aggression by China? What's the reason we haven't been doing that?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: So that's exactly it. So, you know, before 1979, you know, we had 15 to 20,000 troops on Taiwan. We operated, we fought part of the Vietnam War from Taiwan. I mean, they were a good ally of us. They fought with us in Korea. You know, they these were a key, a key partner. And they fought with us in Vietnam. You know, they were a key partner to the United States.
--:-- John Bickley: Let's talk about Russia, which is a key trading partner with China. You've called for stricter enforcement of sanctions targeting recipients of Russian fossil fuels. What mechanisms are currently being underutilized? What impact would an effective enforcement have on China as well as India, for example?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Look, we could get a new law. I know Senator Graham has pushed a new law that would put some very tough tariffs and export control, export controls on recipients of Russian fossil fuels delivered by the shadow fleet of illegal oilers and tankers. That's helpful. The reality is laws exist now to hold, the president has the power now to hold countries accountable that are receiving this secondary, that are secondary receivers or tertiary receivers of this shadow fleet oil, natural gas.
--:-- John Bickley: Final question. With all your knowledge of the Indo-Pacific and European theaters of war, what's your greatest strategic concern for the U.S. over the next year?
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: I think probably the greatest concern is a Russia that either wins on the battlefield, which I don't think is likely, or domestically begins to have systemic cracks that put Putin's legitimacy at risk.
--:-- John Bickley: Thank you so much for talking with us. We appreciate you lending your expertise to our show.
--:-- Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery: Thank you for having me.
