--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Welcome to Red, White & Who. I'm Ryan Knudsen.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I'm Molly Ball.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: It's Friday, September 6th.
--:-- Molly Ball: We're getting ready to go to some Senate campaign events.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Nice. Are you in the lobby?
--:-- Molly Ball: Yeah. They didn't have a room ready for me since it's nine o'clock in the morning.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But they have these little booths off the lobby and breakfast is over, it seems pretty quiet.
--:-- Molly Ball: How many elections have you covered now?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: The first campaign I went to conventions for was 08, but I was still a local reporter.
--:-- Molly Ball: And the first campaign I really hit the road for, presidential campaign, was 2012.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So 16 years, is that four elections?
--:-- Molly Ball: Is your fourth presidential election you've been covering?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Fifth.
--:-- Molly Ball: Fifth. Eight, 12, 16, 20. So this is number five.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Yeah, so now for the next eight, Is it eight weeks until the campaign?
--:-- Molly Ball: Until the election?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Is it?
--:-- Molly Ball: I'd have to count.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Let's see. I did look it up, actually.
--:-- Molly Ball: It is eight weeks.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And we're going to be calling you up every Friday to talk about this election and all of its wild twists and turns.
--:-- Molly Ball: Something tells me there will be no shortage of things to discuss over the next, you're right, eight weeks.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: All right, so should we try this thing?
--:-- Molly Ball: Let's do it.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: From the Journal, this is Red, White & Who. Our show about the road to the White House.
--:-- Molly Ball: I'm Ryan Knudsen.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And I'm Molly Ball.
--:-- Molly Ball: It's Friday, September 6th.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Coming up on the first episode of our new series, we're going to talk about abortion and how this issue could define the 2024 election.
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--:-- Molly Ball: That's Indeed.com slash journal right now and support the show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Indeed.com slash journal.
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--:-- Ryan Knudsen: All right. So it's been a week since we last sat down and talked.
--:-- Molly Ball: What has happened over the last seven days, would you say?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: What is each campaign focusing on?
--:-- Molly Ball: Both campaigns are focusing on policy rollouts and debate prep this week.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: The big, hotly anticipated, game-changing presidential debate is next Tuesday.
--:-- Molly Ball: So both candidates are going to do some hunkering down and getting ready in their individual ways.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Both candidates also made some announcements about economic policy this week.
--:-- Molly Ball: Kamala Harris going to New Hampshire to talk about the things she says she would do to encourage small businesses.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Donald Trump speaking at the Economic Club in New York, talking about his plans for the economy, his plan to bring in Elon Musk to audit the federal government and make it more efficient.
--:-- Molly Ball: And the Harris campaign also launched a reproductive rights bus tour starting in Florida this week.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So laying down a marker on one of the central issues for her campaign and trying to raise awareness of that topic.
--:-- Molly Ball: And significantly beginning that effort right in Donald Trump's backyard in Palm Beach, Florida.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: All right, so let's talk about reproductive rights, abortion, which has become a big issue in this election because this, of course, is the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade.
--:-- Molly Ball: And now abortion access has changed dramatically in the U.S. since then.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: That's right.
--:-- Molly Ball: 14 states have banned abortion more or less completely since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: A lot of blue states have gone in the other direction, have expanded access.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I think the most significant political development is that in a number of states, there have been ballot measures asking people whether they want to either further restrict or ban abortion or expand abortion rights.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: In every single one of those ballot measures, the abortion rights side has won.
--:-- Molly Ball: So we see a dramatic shift of public opinion toward abortion rights, toward abortion access.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Where would you say this issue ranks for voters in terms of importance?
--:-- Molly Ball: It's very interesting because it doesn't tend to be people's number one issue.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: It tends to rank a little further down the list.
--:-- Molly Ball: You know, consistently, the plurality of voters, when you ask what's your most important issue or what the issue that most affecting your vote people say the economy, Inflation, prices, cost of living, that sort of thing.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And then up there tends to be immigration as well.
--:-- Molly Ball: But there was a poll this week that found that with women voters under 45 abortion now is the number one issue.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Because this has become such a crucial winning issue for Democrats, one of the things that you see Democratic campaigns trying to do is increase the salience of this issue.
--:-- Molly Ball: And it was a significant source of angst for Democrats when Joe Biden was still in the race that he was not willing or able to do that.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, for more than a year now, has been the administration's chief messenger on this issue.
--:-- Molly Ball: She's very comfortable speaking about it.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: The freedom to make decisions about one's own body and not have the government telling people what to do.
--:-- Molly Ball: In several states, abortion is actually on the ballot this November, like Nevada, Florida, Missouri, just to name a few, where there are ballot measures that would codify, in many cases, in the state's constitution, abortion protection.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Does that help one candidate more than the other?
--:-- Molly Ball: I think that's a significant question mark in this election because, as you mentioned before, this is the first presidential election since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So we are very much in uncharted territory.
--:-- Molly Ball: We don't know how this, you know, volatile and emotional issue interacts with a presidential ballot where voters are making so many other calculations and thinking about so many other things.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: What we've seen in the, again, not very many elections that have occurred since that Dobbs decision in 2022 is that it's sort of an unpredictable interaction when people are not just voting on abortion directly.
--:-- Molly Ball: And certainly the hope of Democrats is that those states where this is on the ballot, it will juice the turnout of voters who care about this issue and those voters are more likely to be Democrats or to lean toward a Democratic candidate and therefore, if you can just get them to the polls, they're more likely to support Kamala Harris in the presidential election.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But also, wouldn't a ballot measure on abortion motivate both sides?
--:-- Molly Ball: I mean, including conservatives who want to keep abortion restricted, that they would also be motivated to come out and vote?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So far, what we've seen is that turnout has been pretty lopsidedly in favor of abortion rights in all these state referendums.
--:-- Molly Ball: So, I mean, one of the things that's really interesting about public opinion on this issue is it was really considered a sort of 50-50 issue before the Dobbs decision.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: It seemed like there were about equal numbers of Americans who would call themselves pro-life or pro-choice.
--:-- Molly Ball: But that has changed since Roe was overturned.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And what we've seen is that more and more Americans, it's now between 60 and 70 percent, will tell a pollster that they believe abortion should be completely or mostly legal.
--:-- Molly Ball: So there's really been a shift in the direction of abortion rights.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: You know, the tragic stories that continue to come out of states where the procedure has been restricted has changed the way people think about this issue in a lot of ways.
--:-- Molly Ball: Democrats talk about it as a matter of freedom, you know, trying to speak a sort of conservative language on this issue, talking about people's liberty and autonomy.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And that has resonated with a lot of otherwise conservative voters to the point where you now have a pretty strong political consensus, again, even in some pretty deep red states, in favor of abortion rights.
--:-- Molly Ball: We talked a lot about Kamala Harris's position on abortion already, but let's talk about Trump a little bit.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: He obviously, during his time as president, appointed Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
--:-- Molly Ball: But I don't... It doesn't seem like he wants to take a strong stance on this.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Like, he's both taken credit for killing Roe v. Wade.
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, I did something that nobody thought was possible. I got rid of Roe v. Wade. And by doing that...
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And he also gave mixed signals on this Florida ballot measure that would get rid of the state's current law, which outlaws abortions after six weeks.
--:-- Molly Ball: First, it seemed like Trump was going to vote for that amendment to protect abortions.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And now Trump says he isn't going to vote for it.
--:-- Molly Ball: But what do you think is going on here?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: What's your sense of how Trump is handling this issue?
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, we know that before he became a Republican, Donald Trump was a pro-choice Manhattan Democrat.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And so this has never been an issue of really personal conviction for him.
--:-- Molly Ball: He was able to reassure pro-life voters and bring them to support his candidacy in 2016 and 2020 by assuring them that he would do the things that they wanted, most notably appointing those Supreme Court justices.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But he's been very clear since Roe was overturned that he sees this as a political loser for the Republican Party, and he's been clear about wanting to triangulate that into a more acceptable position.
--:-- Molly Ball: He frequently says, oh, we're going to find a compromise on this, we're going to make a deal, We're going to find a solution that makes everybody happy.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But I think most people in politics don't think that that's possible on this issue, right?
--:-- Molly Ball: It's a tough issue for him because he is caught between his social conservative base that feels very strongly that abortion should not be permitted under any circumstance.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: There are a lot of religious conservatives for whom this is their main or even only voting issue, and they're very passionate about it.
--:-- Molly Ball: And that is a block of the electorate that is really only available to Trump and anything he does to diminish their enthusiasm for him could be a problem.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: On the other hand, there's the general electorate, as we've been talking about, that has only become more and more supportive of abortion rights as time has gone on
--:-- Molly Ball: So any issue that forces a candidate to triangulate between their base and the rest of the electorate is going to be a tough issue
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And that the pickle that Trump finds himself in on abortion
--:-- Molly Ball: What can presidents actually do about this issue?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I mean, aside from appointing Supreme Court justices, which is not any sure thing or guarantee during any particular presidential term,
--:-- Molly Ball: How much influence do they actually have?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: That is a really good question because, as Donald Trump has said many times, all the Supreme Court decision did is return this issue to the states.
--:-- Molly Ball: And so he would argue this isn't something that the federal government is involved in anyway.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Now, he hasn't fully answered the question of whether he would sign or veto a national abortion ban if one came to his desk, if there was a Republican Congress that was able to pass some sort of national legislation on this issue.
--:-- Molly Ball: So that's one thing, of course, that the federal government could do is that Congress could pass a law.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But inevitably, there will be something that the next president is going to decide related to abortion rights.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: All right, so we're going to take a quick break.
--:-- Molly Ball: And then when we come back, we're going to take a listener question and talk a little bit about the debate next week.
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--:-- Ryan Knudsen: All right Molly, so for the past few weeks as you know we've been taking questions from listeners about the election and we've been getting a ton by the way thank you all so much please keep the questions coming
--:-- Molly Ball: And this week our senior producer Rachel Humphries actually called one of our listeners up
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Hi Rachel
--:-- Molly Ball: Hi Ryan hi Molly hey Rachel uh so the listener that you called up is Ronan Spencer
--:-- Rachel Humphries: So yes, I called Ronan up this week to find out a bit more about him.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Hello?
--:-- Molly Ball: Hey, is that Ronan?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Yes, it is.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Hey Ronan, this is Rachel Humphrey.
--:-- Molly Ball: And he told me that he's 19 years old.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: He studies finance and political science at Utah State University.
--:-- Molly Ball: And he loves politics, maybe even more than you do, actually, Molly.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: How is that possible?
--:-- Molly Ball: and this is the first election he's actually going to vote in.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote, you know.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I still am looking forward to the day.
--:-- Molly Ball: I have it in my calendar and everything.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: I'm going to get a good breakfast.
--:-- Molly Ball: I'm really excited.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: What's going to be your pre-vote breakfast?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: I'm honestly thinking some really good chocolate chip pancakes.
--:-- Molly Ball: Oh, nice.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: That just sounds really good before an election day.
--:-- Molly Ball: I don't know why.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: It just sounds very nice.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Do you know who you're going to vote for at this election, Ronan?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: See, that's the funny thing is, you know, I read all the news and then I like I do all this research and stuff.
--:-- Molly Ball: I still don't know who I'm going to vote for.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So you're undecided at this point?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: I am undecided.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I think it's actually kind of fun.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I feel like all of the candidates are trying to win me over.
--:-- Molly Ball: And so I like to I like to listen to all of the points.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: But that's what I would say right now is that I'm considering myself as undecided.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I'm kind of waiting for the debate to see if that kind of swings me over.
--:-- Molly Ball: So what is your question for Molly?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Yeah, so my question for Molly is how does a state become a swing state?
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, thank you, Ronan.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: That's a great question.
--:-- Molly Ball: and I love your enthusiasm and I'm a little bit jealous of your chocolate chip pancakes.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So how does a state become a swing state?
--:-- Molly Ball: So this year, for example, we tend to talk about seven states, which are basically the same seven states that the candidates were targeting four years ago, but they were not the same states that the candidates were looking at in 2016 or 2012 or 2008.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So, I mean, by definition, a swing state is a state that can swing either way, a state that is closely contested between the two parties.
--:-- Molly Ball: But states come in and out of that column for different reasons.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And so there's a couple of big factors that tend to change the map over the long arc of time.
--:-- Molly Ball: Number one, demographic change.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Say more about that.
--:-- Molly Ball: I mean, the population in this country is always shifting.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: People die, people move.
--:-- Molly Ball: We get, you know, immigrants and people moving from place to place.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So a lot of the states that have become swing states that didn't used to be or used to be swing states but aren't anymore are states that are gradually changing demographically.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I'm in Ohio right now.
--:-- Molly Ball: That used to be a swing state.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Barack Obama won it twice.
--:-- Molly Ball: It's now a pretty solidly red state.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And then you look at a state like Georgia where the minority population is growing.
--:-- Molly Ball: You have a lot of population moving to the state because it's a booming economy.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: You get a lot more sort of young, educated professionals who maybe tend more to vote for Democrats.
--:-- Molly Ball: The other factor is the changing party ideologies This realignment that I always talking about that has shifted the demographics and the ideologies of the parties
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: You know, I remember when Mitt Romney said he wanted to compete in Pennsylvania in 2012, a lot of people laughed because it looked like such a solidly democratic state for so long.
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, now we're talking about Pennsylvania as potentially the pivotal swing state in the 2024 election because the changing, shifting party coalitions, the Democrats becoming ever more the party of college-educated, upper-income voters, the Republicans becoming ever more the party of voters without college degrees, particularly men.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: That has brought different states onto the map and ushered different states off of the map.
--:-- Molly Ball: So do you think there's any chance that the state where I live, New York, will ever become a swing state?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Well, Donald Trump certainly thinks so, but he's probably the only one.
--:-- Molly Ball: On the state level, you do get different dynamics, right?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Particularly on the gubernatorial level, you will often see a mismatch.
--:-- Molly Ball: Kansas, nobody thinks Kansas is a swing state, but it has a two-term Democratic governor, so does Kentucky.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Nobody thinks Vermont is a swing state, but it has a Republican governor who's quite popular.
--:-- Molly Ball: So for now, I think New York is going to be a blue state for the foreseeable future, but every time a pundit says something like that.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: It's like a dare to the universe and something weird could happen.
--:-- Molly Ball: And, you know, things could change.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And that's why politics is fun and exciting to cover, as Ronan knows.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So let's look ahead to next week for a moment.
--:-- Molly Ball: There is, of course, the first debate on Tuesday, September 10th.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: What are you going to be watching for?
--:-- Molly Ball: How big of a deal is this for Trump and Harris?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I think this is potentially an extremely important debate.
--:-- Molly Ball: These two candidates have never faced each other before.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Kamala Harris is still very new on the presidential stage, and a lot of voters have a lot of curiosity about what she stands for and what she proposes to do as president.
--:-- Molly Ball: And they want to see, you know, if she can take a punch and throw a punch, if she is able to go toe-to-toe with Trump on that stage.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I think her candidacy significantly hinges on how she's able to perform in this debate, so it's going to be exciting.
--:-- Molly Ball: There was a little debate going into this debate about the rules, specifically whether or not the mics would be muted when it isn't a candidate's turn to speak.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Harris wanted the mics on at all times, but the Trump campaign said they wanted to stick with the rules of the last debate that Trump had with Biden, where the mics were muted.
--:-- Molly Ball: Why do you think Trump wanted to keep the mics muted?
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Well, the conventional wisdom on this is that he looks more presidential when he can't interrupt.
--:-- Molly Ball: So it's a way of sort of reining him in and holding him in check.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I don't know if he would admit that, or even if people around him would say that on the record.
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, didn't he say that he didn't really care, but he's like, we probably should stick with the rules.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: It seemed like it was more like his campaign that wanted the rules to be the same than he did.
--:-- Molly Ball: Exactly.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: And it's his campaign that is always wishing and hoping that he could be reined in.
--:-- Molly Ball: And he is perpetually sort of dashing those hopes with his behavior.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: The Harris campaign wanted to change the rules for the same reason, and perhaps because she might want to interrupt him as well.
--:-- Molly Ball: You know, with her background as a prosecutor, her performance as an interrogator in those Senate hearings where she memorably grilled Trump administration appointees, there was a thought that, you know, if she could interrupt him and sort of try to pin him down and go after him in the way that a prosecutor might, that that might be an advantage for her.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But also that, again, if Trump is relatively unfettered, if he is unleashed to be his usual erratic self, there's a feeling that that benefits the Democrats.
--:-- Molly Ball: And as we know, the mics will be muted, so we'll see how that goes.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: But what does a win look like for each candidate?
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, this is still a pretty tight election.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: and both campaigns would like to seal the deal and put it away in some way.
--:-- Molly Ball: That seems unlikely, but it's always possible that a candidate has a breakout moment in one direction or another.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: So basically, I guess I'm describing this, although I don't like violence or violent metaphors, I'm describing this kind of like a boxing match that like you always want the knockout blow, you always want a decisive victory, but these things are usually decided on points and you're just hoping to do a little bit better than the other guy.
--:-- Molly Ball: All right, Molly, I'll let you get back to your reporting in Ohio.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Thanks so much for talking to us in a hotel lobby and turning that into a little makeshift studio.
--:-- Molly Ball: Thank you so much.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: It's been fun as always.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I look forward to talking to you next week.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: All right, see you next week.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Before we go, remember, if you want to ask Molly a question about the election, send us an email or voice message to thejournal at wsj.com.
--:-- Molly Ball: That's thejournal at wsj.com.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Red, White, and Who is part of The Journal, which is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.
--:-- Molly Ball: Our senior producer is Rachel Humphries.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Our producer is Pierce Singe.
--:-- Molly Ball: Our editor is Catherine Whalen.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: I'm Ryan Knudsen, with production help from Lang Tong.
--:-- Molly Ball: This episode was engineered by Peter Leonard.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Our theme music is by So Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard.
--:-- Molly Ball: Additional music by Bobby Lord.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Fact-checking by Amelia Schoenbeck.
--:-- Molly Ball: Artwork by James Walton.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: Special thanks to Kate Leinbaugh, Sarah Platt, Ben Pershing, and the whole Journal team.
--:-- Molly Ball: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Ryan Knudsen: We'll be back with another episode of Red, White & Who next Friday morning.
--:-- Molly Ball: See you then.
