--:-- Ryan Knutson: All right, Molly. It's only 68 days away. I'm sorry, what is 68 days away? Christmas.
--:-- Molly Ball: Oh, well, then we do have something to look forward to while we think about the event that is only, what, less than 20 days away.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Yeah, I don't know. I don't keep track of that one. I only have, you know, my countdown to, you know. Election? What election?
--:-- Molly Ball: Presence. I don't know about any election.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Wynne, I know that you obviously, of course, because you're here, you live and breathe this thing. So what have you been paying attention to this past week?
--:-- Wynne: Both candidates are going into somewhat unexpected sort of media places to try to reach more voters. We had Trump this week going to the Economic Club of Chicago, going on Univision, doing a women's town hall. Donald J. Trump. Welcome.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Harris going on Fox News. Madam Vice President, thank you for the time. Thank you. It's good to be with you, Brett.
--:-- Brett: And so for the campaigns, you know, this is sort of the desperation stage. It's their last chance to reach those voters and get them to the polls. They've got their ground games mobilizing in full force, knocking on people's doors, trying to drive them out and really heightening the argument, talking about the stakes of the election in apocalyptic terms.
--:-- Molly Ball: And so it seems like we're sort of at the point where, like, people have seen enough, they've seen a lot, they've made up their minds, and now we're kind of entering the phase of the election where it's just get out the vote. Go, go, vote.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: That's right. I mean, effectively, the persuasion phase of this campaign is over. People have made up their minds. We see that in the polls that are so incredibly static. And so now it's just a game of who can turn out more of their voters and get them to the polls.
--:-- Molly Ball: From the Journal, this is Red, White & Who. Our show about the road to the White House. I'm Ryan Knutson. And I'm Molly Ball. It's Friday, October 18th.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Coming up on the show, it's almost Christmas. Yes. And Hanukkah. And Hanukkah, yes. All right, sorry, let me do this thing for real. Coming up on the show, whose voters are more likely to actually go to the polls? And we take a closer look at another key swing state, Arizona.
--:-- Molly Ball: All right, so as we were talking about, early voting has started in a lot of states, and a lot of people are already going out and doing it. So do you have a sense of how many people have voted so far in America?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Yeah, the ability to vote is now available in all seven of the swing states, and a bunch of other states as well. According to a tally maintained by NBC News, 7.8 million mail-in and early in-person votes have already been cast across the country.
--:-- Molly Ball: Wow. And about 40 million people have requested ballots in order to vote by mail or early.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: How many people usually vote in an election? Like 150 million or so?
--:-- Molly Ball: It was nearly 160 million in 2020, so it'll probably be more than that this year.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Do you have a sense of whether all these early votes help one party over the other?
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, according to NBC's tally, in the states where voters register with a party, the votes that have been cast so far are disproportionately being cast by registered Democrats. About 50 percent of the votes so far have been cast by Democrats, only about a third by Republicans. The rest are independents or unknown.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: In a lot of states, people don't register with a party, so we don't necessarily have that data. And this does not mean Democrats are winning the election. It just means that their voters are dramatically more likely to cast their votes before Election Day.
--:-- Molly Ball: So let's talk about each party's ground game. What are Democrats and Republicans doing to try to get their voters to the polls?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Yeah, so the Democrats have traditionally put much more emphasis on this idea of a ground game, particularly since Barack Obama, who really created a massive field organizing model for his campaign that Democrats have then sort of copied in each successive election cycle, where it's this gigantic sort of pyramid scheme style organization that starts at the national level, goes down to the state level, And then you have thousands of campaign staffers and volunteers at that bottom rung working out of hundreds of offices in every state and potentially every neighborhood of some of the swing states just blitzing these voters, knocking on their doors.
--:-- Molly Ball: So the Democrats have this sort of highly centralized field operation that is operating from within the campaign. Republicans are doing it differently this year and have done it differently in prior years.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: You know, you think back to the Trump campaign in 2016, there was really no field organization beyond what, you know, state parties and the Republican National Committee were doing anyway. And 2020, you know, was difficult because of COVID. This year the Trump campaign has decided that those resources are better spent on this election integrity obsession of Trump on sort of monitoring the polls for nefarious activity even though we know that that really is vanishingly rare really happens.
--:-- Molly Ball: And so they are outsourcing the ground game to super PACs and outside organizations. So you have Elon Musk's new super PAC that he's pouring tens of millions of dollars into. You have the Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk's organization.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So a lot of Republican hand-wringing about whether what's being built is sufficient, you know, whether Elon Musk, who's quite new to politics, knows what he's doing or he's just sort of flushing a lot of money down the drain.
--:-- Molly Ball: So a lot of Republicans are very nervous about this sort of novel ground game structure. Now, it's not the biggest deal in the world. Conventional wisdom and the political science research suggests that the best ground game in the world probably gets you, you know, a one or two point advantage. But in an election this close, that could be decisive. That's going to matter.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So if we're at this point in the election where it's really just about getting your base out to the polls, are there any advantages that the Republicans or Democrats have in their base or challenges that are presented by the kinds of people that each side is trying to get out?
--:-- Molly Ball: Yeah, one really interesting wrinkle in this election is that for a very long time, I think for decades, the conventional wisdom has been that higher turnout benefits Democrats. The historic Democratic coalition has been many more voters who are working class, people of color, lower propensity voters. And so the idea is the more low propensity voters get to the polls, the better Democrats do.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: But because of this political realignment that we've been talking about, that has really changed to the point where many people now think that lower turnout benefits the Democratic candidate and higher turnout benefits the Republican.
--:-- Molly Ball: So because the Democratic coalition has shifted to be much more composed of upper income voters and college educated voters, whereas the Trump coalition is much more about lower income and minority voters and less frequent voters, it actually may be the case that higher turnout now benefits the Republican.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So I want to pivot to talk about something that I've been noticing over the past week which is that Donald Trump has really been dialing up his rhetoric in a lot of ways about talking about how the real enemy in the United States is the enemy from within and sort of the radical left.
--:-- Molly Ball: We have the outside enemy and then we have the enemy from within and the enemy from within in my opinion is more dangerous in China, Russia, and all these countries. He's talking about using the military to go after radical left lunatics around election day.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And meanwhile, Kamala Harris is also leaning into a much more aggressive posture. And she's just like playing all these clips of Trump. I mean, if you go scroll through her social media account, it's just like all these clips of Trump, which is kind of funny if you think about it because, you know, she's putting these messages out there that are from her opponent.
--:-- Molly Ball: But why do you think Trump is talking in this way now? And why do you think Kamala Harris is amplifying it?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Yeah, we've really seen both campaigns take a really dark turn this week, really dialing up the sort of apocalyptic rhetoric. Harris hammering on the idea that Trump is a threat to democracy and, as you say, amplifying a lot of his rhetoric on Charlemagne Tha God's radio show this week. She agreed that she thinks that Trump's rhetoric has become fascist in nature.
--:-- Molly Ball: One mind that is about taking us forward and progress and investing in the American people, investing in their ambitions, dealing with their challenges. And the other, Donald Trump, is about taking us backward. The other is about fascism. Why can't we just say it?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Yes, we can say that.
--:-- Molly Ball: Trump has been calling his opponents fascists and lunatics for a long time, but you have him now really talking aggressively about, as you said, rounding up his enemies, putting them in jail.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And I think because we are in crunch time right now, because we are so close to Election Day, both of these campaigns are just turning the dial up to 11, you know, turning up the rhetoric, trying to frighten people, frankly, with the stakes of the election and with the idea of the sort of hellscape that they argue would result if they don't win.
--:-- Molly Ball: What does Trump mean when he talks about the enemy from within?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, he's talking about his political opponents. In some cases, he's specifically referring to this imaginary election fraud that he's convinced stole the election from him in 2020.
--:-- Molly Ball: So the other day in Pennsylvania, he said, you know, these people are sick, they're evil, they've weaponized our elections. So he's really laying the groundwork for Republican voters to, once again, if he loses, be convinced that the election was rigged and stolen from him.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And this is something that you see is really widespread among the rank and file in the Republican Party, something that I saw in dramatic fashion when I was reporting in Arizona last week.
--:-- Molly Ball: All right, we're going to talk about that trip to Arizona and more when we come back from this break.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: All right, so we talked a lot about the issues in the Rust Belt swing states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But I want to talk more about the Sun Belt swing states Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
--:-- Molly Ball: So first of all, just kind of at a high level, what is the state of affairs in those states? Does it look like any of them are tipping for one candidate one way or the other?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: No, nobody has a comfortable lead in any of the swing states. That is why this election is tied. Both candidates are within the margin of error in all seven swing states.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I keep getting questions from people trying to say, well, does that mean Trump has momentum here, there? Or are you saying that, you know, Harris is going to win because of this, this, and this? And the answer is no. I am telling you over and over again that this race is tied and we do not know who's going to win.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: All right, so I wanted to zoom in on Arizona, which is a state that you traveled to recently. So first of all, why is Arizona important in this election?
--:-- Molly Ball: So I went to Arizona to see how and why this swing state is in play in the presidential election and also what's going on in this very hotly contested Senate race that they're having.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Arizona is one of, I would say, two states that have been the most torn apart by Trump's lies about the 2020 election.
--:-- Molly Ball: The Republican infighting over the 2020 election has gotten a lot of attention in Georgia, where Trump has gone after a lot of the top Republicans in the state. And it's a similar dynamic in Arizona, where people like Carrie Lake, who's now the Republican Senate nominee, and other Trump allies have aggressively amplified his false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Carrie Lake ran for governor in 2022. She narrowly lost that race. She has still never conceded, never admitted that she lost.
--:-- Molly Ball: When I interviewed her, she would not admit that she lost. Did you lose the 2022 election? We have litigated this. We had major problems on Election Day. And had we not had those problems on Election Day, I would have won in a massive. But when you shut down Election Day voting and the machines don't work, this is what we get. And it's not right.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And so I'm going to work really hard to make sure we have honest elections. The people out there, I challenge you, just go and talk to the people out there. They know what time it is. They know what happened.
--:-- Molly Ball: Is this it, guys? One more question. Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? I believe that Joe Biden did not get 81 million votes.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And I've made my position very clear on that. The idea of election fraud and the idea that you can't trust elections is something that Republicans overwhelmingly believe.
--:-- Molly Ball: I went to a J.D. Vance rally in Tucson in like 150-degree heat outdoors. The next vice president and second lady of the United States, Senator J.D. Vance and Usha Vance. And talked to a lot of the attendees there, asked them about their concerns.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And over and over, they told me that they were concerned about the integrity of the election.
--:-- Molly Ball: So one of the voters that I spoke to there was a man named Dave McCartney. Very concerned. You know, it's just so obvious. Except for military, we should all be voting in person. And we should have picture ID. And we should be voting once.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I'm very concerned about it. Is this a winning strategy for Carrie Lake in her Senate race? It seems to be hurting Carrie Lake's campaign because it has alienated a lot of swing voters who see that she is not telling the truth about what happened in the past two elections.
--:-- Molly Ball: They were not rigged and stolen, but she keeps saying that they are. And so for a lot of swing voters and independent voters, that looks to them like a candidate who's not focused on the things that are important to them, who's not focused on sort of solving their pocketbook problems, but instead is obsessed with conspiracy theories.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And so the way that this issue has really fractured the Republican Party and pitted Republicans against one another, people in Arizona who are involved in the political process tell me this has been a major factor in making the state into a swing state.
--:-- Molly Ball: What does this mean for the presidential race? Does it help or hurt Trump that the Republican candidate for Senate is making this like one of her central issues?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, Trump is running ahead of Carrie Lake in Arizona so far. In the polling average, he is a little under two points ahead, while Carrie Lake, the Republican Senate candidate, is about eight points behind.
--:-- Molly Ball: But, you know, a lot of Republicans worry that the doubts that Trump and Carrie Lake have sowed with Republican voters may hurt Republican turnout.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: There is a lot of research to support the idea that people are less likely to vote if they feel like their vote doesn't matter. And we saw back in 2021, in January, immediately after the presidential election, when Trump was going around telling people that the election was stolen, there was a double Senate runoff in Georgia on January 3rd. And Republicans lost both of those races.
--:-- Molly Ball: And they think that part of the reason was that a lot of Republican voters were hearing Trump say the vote is fake. So that really is a disincentive to go out and cast your vote if you think that the whole thing is just being determined by some conspiracy somewhere.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: All right, so let's get to our listener question. Our senior producer Rachel Humphries is here.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Hi Ryan, hi Molly. Yes, we continue to get so many listener questions. Thank you to everyone who is sending them in. And this week, we have a question from Paige Durenberger. She's 18 years old, and she's studying economics in East Texas.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Hi. Hi, is that Paige? Yes, it is.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: And actually, when I spoke to her, she had just taken a math test, trigonometry.
--:-- Molly Ball: How'd she do?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: She thought she did pretty well. It was triggering for me to hear that word.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Because that takes me back. I'm very bad at math. Trigonometry is very triggering.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: It is very triggering. I never took that class, though. I'll be honest.
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, I think Paige probably knows a lot more about this than either Ryan or I do. But as well as being into math, she's really looking forward to this election. And she's really looking forward to voting for the first time.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I'm feeling very excited. I have always looked forward to an election. Even before I could vote, I would watch my parents vote whenever they would cast their ballots. And now getting to do the same, it really is a dream come true.
--:-- Molly Ball: A dream come true, which is exactly what the campaigns want to hear.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Yeah. There's a high propensity voter right there.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: So did she say who she's going to vote for?
--:-- Molly Ball: She did. Paige told me she is voting for Kamala Harris.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Okay. Because of her stance on abortion.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Texas, where Paige lives, has an abortion ban in place. And Paige said it's something that she and her peers are thinking about when they go to vote.
--:-- Molly Ball: But it's also an issue that she says divides her friends and her peers at college along gender lines.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Girls and women that I know are flipping their vote from Republican to Democrat simply because they want their control of their own body.
--:-- Molly Ball: And that's something that while a lot of men are able to empathize with, they don't fully understand it until you're in it.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Paige, what's your question for Molly?
--:-- Molly Ball: My question for Molly is, how influential are Gen Z voters like me going to be in this election?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Well, thank you, Paige, for a wonderful question. And I love your enthusiasm for politics and your enthusiasm for voting. I hope it is contagious.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So I looked it up and technically Gen Zers right now are between the ages of 12 and 27.
--:-- Molly Ball: So obviously only the ones over 18 can vote. Turnout tends to be somewhat low in this demographic.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: We'll call it the 18 to 29-year-old vote because that's how it's usually measured in things like exit polls.
--:-- Molly Ball: 18 to 29-year-olds in 2020 were about 17 percent of the electorate.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So a pretty important chunk and one that tends to be pretty strongly Democratic.
--:-- Molly Ball: There was recently a poll conducted by Yale University of voters under 30, and they found that this group was going for Kamala Harris by about a 20-point margin.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And that is not quite as well as Joe Biden did with this group in 2020. He had about a 25-point margin with the under 30 vote.
--:-- Molly Ball: So you definitely do see the Harris campaign working hard to juice turnout in this segment and to get as many young voters motivated as possible.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: But it's not as Democratic a group as it used to be.
--:-- Molly Ball: And we are also seeing increasing signs of a gender divide among young voters with younger men inclined to be a little bit more conservative than potentially their elders.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Just like Paige said, she sees among her own friends.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Exactly.
--:-- Molly Ball: All right. Well, thanks, Molly, for your time. Really appreciate it.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Thanks, Ryan. Always fun to talk with you.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Before we go, are you still undecided about who to vote for? If so, why? We want to hear from you, especially if you live in a swing state.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Send us an email or voice message to thejournal at wsj.com.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: That's thejournal at wsj.com.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Red, White, and Who is part of The Journal which is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Our senior producer is Rachel Humphries. Our producer is Pierce Singe. Our editor is Catherine Whalen.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I'm Ryan Knutson. This episode was engineered by Peter Leonard. Our theme music is by So Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard. Additional music this week from Peter Leonard. Fact-checking by Amelia Schoenbeck. Artwork by James Walton.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Special thanks to Kate Leinbaugh, Sarah Platt, Ben Pershing, and the whole Journal team.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Thanks for listening. Red, White, and Who will be back when?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: We'll be back one week from today.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Can't wait.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: And at that point it'll only be 61 days until Christmas.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Are you a Christmas person? Are you obsessed with Christmas?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: I love every holiday. You know, in high school I was voted Mr. Spirit.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: What did you have to do to be Mr. Spirit?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Spiritful.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Did you wear a lot of costumes?
--:-- Rachel Humphries: No, I just, you know, I was really into my high school.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And I was very enthusiastic, I guess.
--:-- Rachel Humphries: Wow.
