--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Just over a month ago, a guy named Juan Guaido, the 35-year-old head of Venezuela's National Assembly, declared himself the country's acting president.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Since then, the country's had two presidents, Guaido plus still-sitting Nicolás Maduro. And it looks like two presidents is even worse than one. This economic crisis is a humanitarian crisis. Hyperinflation has surpassed 1 million percent and expected to go up even further this year. Infant mortality is soaring at a faster rate than in Syria.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Listen, there's nothing left in this country. Everyone here knows it. There's no money, no food. Here we're all starving to death.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Over the weekend, the tension between Guaido and Maduro threatened to reach a boiling point at the Venezuelan border with Cucuta, Colombia. On the Colombian side, tons of humanitarian aid waiting to be delivered to Venezuelans. On the Venezuelan side, security forces loyal to Maduro blocking all of it.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: I'm Emiliana Duarte, a freelance journalist based in Caracas. I arrived at the border on Friday along with a whole lot of protesters. There were groups of volunteers, more than 600,000 volunteers signed up on a website that was calling for people to help and make their way over to the border to receive the aid.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: And mostly led by locals in these towns who couldn't, I can't overstate how desperate they were for this food to come in. So they started gathering around the different bridges. They were led by the Women in White, which is a religious group of women who were hoping to lead the march in the hopes that by speaking to the military and pleading and begging that this food and medicine come in from the Colombian side, the military would defect and would ostensibly switch sides.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: But it was very shortly after these demonstrations began that the National Guard began to heavily repress all the peaceful protesters that were there. And then some of the protesters answered the rubber pellets and the tear gas canisters with rocks and burning tires. And this progressed over the course of the morning until groups of armed paramilitary motorcades, known in Venezuela as colectivos, arrived, and they opened fire on the peaceful protesters.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: Children were crying. They were senior citizens. There were women who had been separated from their children. And then once they left, they went over to the other two bridges to do the same.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: Two trucks that were coming in over the Ureña Bridge, filled with food and medicine, boxes of food and medicine that were sent by the Colombian government, were lit on fire by these armed paramilitary groups wearing hoods.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: And several volunteers went into the burning trucks in the hopes of getting those boxes out and making a human cordon and bringing those boxes of food and medicine over to the Venezuelan side. That didn't happen because the Venezuelan National Guard began shooting into the Colombian border at the protesters as a means of dispersing the crowds.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: But the anger that was felt by Venezuelans on both sides upon seeing trucks filled with badly needed medicine and food was another level of heartbreaking. I spoke to a woman who was screaming at the National Guard, pleading, begging that the aid be let in.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: And she said, I have cancer. I'm dying. I need medicine. I can't buy it. I can't find it. Please, please, please let the medicine through. And it was to no avail because the trucks were already burning.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How many people were hurt? On the Colombian side, I heard that 300 people were injured, and according to Colombian authorities, 37 were hospitalized. But we're still waiting on numbers on the Venezuelan side where the violence was substantially worse.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: Did the U.S. and the other coalition members who sent this aid think it would go differently?
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: I think the expectation was that because so many people made their way over to the border as peaceful protesters, that eventually the military would put down their arms and help this food come in.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: I spoke to two National Guardsmen, ex-National Guardsmen, who defected last year, and they were on the protester's side on Saturday, volleying back tear gas at the military that was throwing rubber pellets and tear gas at them.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: And both of them told me that they knew soldiers who were currently blocking the bridge, and they knew that they had families, and they knew that they were having just as hard of a time finding food and medicine as the rest of the population of these towns.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: And that they were assured and confident that these soldiers would eventually put down their arms and join the side of the protesters and allow the aid to come in.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Did that work? Did any Venezuelan security forces defect?
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: There was around 60 was the last number reported National Guardsmen who made their way over to the Colombian side of the border and swore loyalty to Juan Guaidó.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: There was a video released last night where they recognized Juan Guaidó, who is right now in Colombia as their commander in chief. And the last announcement was that we were to expect more defections in the coming days.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And this isn't just happening at the Venezuela-Colombia border, right? There's also some tension and aid trying to cross the border around Brazil?
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: Correct. There were a couple of trucks full of aid that were sent in from Boa Vista, which is directly across from the southern Venezuelan border with Brazil.
--:-- Emiliana Duarte: And the trucks never made it over the border. They were stopped by military convoys in the southern border with Brazil. There were also reports of shipments of aid coming in by sea from Caribbean islands, from Curacao specifically, which were intercepted by Venezuelan Navy forces and diverted.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So no aid has come into Venezuela so far. It's been over a month now since Guaido declared that he's the interim president of Venezuela.
--:-- Alex Ward: I'm Alex Ward, one of the hosts of the Worldly Podcast from Vox.
--:-- Alex Ward: Did the events this weekend at the border with Colombia and Brazil change the momentum in this sort of stalemate between the two presidents?
--:-- Alex Ward: I think that because of the level of violence that was perpetrated on citizens on Saturday, the day that the aid was supposed to come in, it would give reason for Guaidó to ask the international community for even more pressure.
--:-- Alex Ward: And I think it's their hopes that it would justify an escalation of action on behalf of the surrounding countries. Specifically, Colombia and Brazil have a lot to lose in this standoff because of the refugee crisis that has been going on from Venezuela.
--:-- Alex Ward: There's been Venezuelans pouring over the border, both of those borders, and they've created a humanitarian crisis on each of these sides of the border. It's estimated that over 3 million Venezuelans have already fled and will continue to do so until the situation changes.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Alex Ward, you're the host of the Worldly Podcast. This border skirmish between Venezuela and Colombia right now, it seems to all be about aid, food, emergency medical supplies. Why is there so much fighting over aid?
--:-- Alex Ward: Because Venezuela is in complete collapse. Despite having massive oil reserves, Nicolás Maduro, the country's president, has horribly overseeing his nation's economy.
--:-- Alex Ward: Inflation is through the roof. Hunger is through the roof. We have millions of Venezuelans leaving the country. And so it's just an insanely horrible situation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Poverty is everywhere. Diseases are just widespread throughout the country. This is an insanely impoverished, destitute country right now. And so aid is incredibly more important in order to help the millions of Venezuelans suffering under Maduro.
--:-- Alex Ward: And yet Maduro says people in his country didn't need the aid, right? Is he just lying? Is he missing something?
--:-- Alex Ward: Maduro is lying. The country needs aid. And the reason Maduro doesn't want aid is one, it's basically an admission of failure, right? That his economic policies that he has championed and that his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, have championed have completely failed in the country.
--:-- Alex Ward: Right. And second is he does believe that foreign aid is part of a longer term effort to remove him from power. And so to accept aid into the country is to basically let his own overthrow start to happen.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's almost like a Trojan horse kind of thing.
--:-- Alex Ward: And this is certainly a scenario the United States considered when it sent aid to Colombia. Did they mean this aid to be something of a provocation as well?
--:-- Alex Ward: I think there's no question. I think that's very clear. To be sure, the U.S. has been sending aid to Venezuela for years. The U.S. has also been funding opposition parties.
--:-- Alex Ward: This specific tranche that was sent last week with U.S. military cargo planes and whatnot, this was very clearly politically motivated.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Because Juan Guaido, the interim president, had a claim to make saying, I am trying to help you, the Venezuelan people, by giving you aid. Maduro is not.
--:-- Alex Ward: But there's no question that the U.S. had this in mind, that they were trying to foment the kind of civil disruption and fighting and clashes that we've seen over the past few days.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And now that this is reaching a boiling point at the borders with Brazil and Colombia, Vice President Mike Pence today dropped into Bogota at a summit with other Latin American leaders and said, What brings us together today is the recognition by all the nations gathered here that Nicolás Maduro is a usurper with no legitimate claim to power.
--:-- Alex Ward: And Nicolás Maduro must go. And over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Maduro's days are numbered.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Are these threats to Maduro? Yes, absolutely. The Trump administration has not hidden in the fact that they do not like Maduro, that it does not like Maduro.
--:-- Alex Ward: Yeah. That it wants him gone. These are very open statements. I mean, Trump has said similar things as well.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the intention is clear. Maduro must go, right? Pence has said it.
--:-- Alex Ward: The question is how? Because it's been a month, over a month. Right. January 23rd is when they, you know, Trump first recognized the Guaido government.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And to be fair and to be clear, a bunch of other countries in South America and Europe have joined along with this U.S.-led effort.
--:-- Alex Ward: So it's not just like the U.S. unilaterally supporting Guaido. But so far, sending aid and causing civil unrest is as far as we've gone.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It does not look like, even though the administration says all options are on the table, it does not look like a military intervention is in the cards.
--:-- Alex Ward: Are there risks to military intervention for Venezuela, for the United States, for neighbors in the region?
--:-- Alex Ward: Oh, absolutely, right? I mean, is there any question that the American military could take down Maduro's forces? There's no question, right?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But then what? Do you put Guaido in power? How do you rebuild the country?
--:-- Alex Ward: There's kind of this famous principle that former Secretary of State Colin Powell used to say, which is if you break it, you buy it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So okay, let's say we break Venezuela. Maduro is out. We install Guaido. Yes maybe good things start to happen but the US effectively owns the Venezuela recovery effort.
--:-- Alex Ward: You could assume our military being there for a long time, us spending a lot of money to develop its economy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so it the exact thing that Trump consistently says he wants to do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What about Juan Guaido? He's not even in the country right now, right? He's in Colombia, even though Maduro placed him on a travel ban.
--:-- Alex Ward: Are they going to let him back in?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So this is a massive issue, right, is that despite what the U.S. and other countries say, Maduro still has control over the authorities, border patrol, National Guard, military.
--:-- Alex Ward: And so if Guaido leaves, there is a chance that Maduro goes, no, he is no longer allowed back in to Venezuela.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then you just have a massive issue, right? Because then the U.S.-backed interim president is no longer allowed to be in the country that he's supposed to be interim president of.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the potential for a Guaido problem like that is one of these things that I'm not sure they've totally thought through.
--:-- Alex Ward: And to be fair as well, it would be a bad move by Maduro. It would cause a bigger problem for him. It would probably lead to even more civil unrest.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I never count out Maduro doing a really, really dumb thing.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So what happens next? What are the possibilities?
--:-- Alex Ward: Hoo boy. Experts I've talked to will say that the most likely scenario is Maduro stays in power.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Despite the popular discontent, despite the mismanagement, despite U.S. support against him, it's more likely than not that he stays in power.
--:-- Alex Ward: He'd be a weakened leader, but he'd be a leader nonetheless.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Probably the second scenario you think of is like Maduro may decide ultimately to step down, right? The sanctions have robbed him of his wealth.
--:-- Alex Ward: He's going to face this massive global effort against him forever. Maybe it's worth him stepping down and leaving and cutting some sort of deal with Guaido.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Guaido has already offered amnesty to Maduro and military members that decide to switch sides.
--:-- Alex Ward: So maybe he takes that kind of sweet deal before it goes away.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Okay. There is sort of a third option, which is that the Venezuelan military turns on Maduro.
--:-- Alex Ward: And they're sort of the power broker here now. The military is the biggest, most influential force in Venezuela, and they are currently backing Maduro.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so should it switch allegiances to Guaido, that would be a massive game changer.
--:-- Alex Ward: We don't really see that happening now. It keeps reaffirming its commitment to Maduro. But maybe it either switches sides and then Guaido is basically in charge of the country or even there's sort of like a military coup. That's also a potential option.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So these are kind of the scenarios we're thinking about and then the least likely option is that we just have an all-out civil war where we don't really know what the outcome will be.
--:-- Alex Ward: And like free and fair elections, just not a thing that's going to happen at this point.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, that depends, right? The only way that happens, we think, is if Guaido does take over, calls new elections, and then we see what happens.
--:-- Alex Ward: Maduro has said he is at least thinking about calling a new election as leader, but who would buy that being legitimate, right? We've seen him basically steal elections before.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We know he's a dictator. He's probably not going to allow a free and fair election, and he loses and go, okay, well, I'm out.
--:-- Alex Ward: So the only way we kind of get anything that we think might be a free and fair election would be if Guaido takes over and then actually calls it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But then we come into, we don't know that much about Guaido, right? So we don't know if he will kindly step aside.
--:-- Alex Ward: We don't know if he will make himself a candidate. We don't know anything. We don't know if he'll just go, well, we need time to develop. And so why don't I just be president for three, five, 50 years, right?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We don't know that yet.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Alex Ward is one of the hosts of the Worldly Podcast from Vox.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's all about what's going on outside of the United States. I'm Sean Rameswaram from this is Today Explained. Thank you.
