--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today, we're talking about North Korea and its recent missile tests. Joining me is Alex Ward, who covers defense and national security for Vox.
--:-- Alex Ward: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So, let's start with the basics. What's going on with North Korea right now?
--:-- Alex Ward: After a long silence, North Korea has decided to show its anger with the United States by testing missiles again. And the chance for greater provocation, even greater conflict between Washington and Pyongyang is now growing steadily, but surely.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And this all started last Friday, maybe Saturday for North Korea. Could you walk us through this week in North Korea flexing?
--:-- Alex Ward: Sure. So Friday night here in DC, when I'm just trying to Netflix and chill, my deepest sympathies, alerts pop up that North Korea has tested missiles. Tonight, Kim Jong-un sending a message directly to President Trump, firing off a series of short-range projectiles into the Sea of Japan.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: These missiles traveled no more than 120 miles eastward from North Korea. U.S. intelligence believes that the rockets and short-range missiles launched were not capable of actually reaching the U.S., but all of them were able to reach targets in South Korea.
--:-- Alex Ward: That's still a very big deal, because one of the big things that the U.S. is worried about is North Korea's missile arsenal getting better. They hadn't tested since November 2017 because of its diplomacy with the United States.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Will the provocative action knock already tense diplomatic relations between President Trump and Kim Jong-un even further off balance?
--:-- Alex Ward: And it wasn't a one-off. On Thursday morning, it turned out that North Korea yet again tested even more missiles. The U.S. tracked three short-range ballistic missiles that the North Koreans fired into the sea.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The latest launch came from the country's northwest coast. They flew higher. They flew further. They still landed in that same body of water between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
--:-- Alex Ward: One of the missiles that North Korea tested, it looks like it is a new missile based off a Russian model, which actually then means that North Korea is modernizing its short-range missile game.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that's actually very worrisome, Not necessarily for the United States, as in like they can't hit American territory on the mainland with that missile, but they can definitely hit South Korea, Japan.
--:-- Alex Ward: And let's not forget that the U.S. has thousands of troops stationed in both countries.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Obviously, if you've had a pulse for the past, I don't know, 20 years, this is going to be a little deja vu. Why is this happening again after the break right now?
--:-- Alex Ward: There's two ways I can answer that question. OK. The first way is what North Korea is saying. What they said after the first test, Friday night, was, guys, this is just the army testing its stuff.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Every military tests its equipment. We're just trying to improve ourselves. Like, relax. This is not meant as a message. It's no big deal.
--:-- Alex Ward: But it's harder to buy that argument when they do a second test out of the blue in less than a week.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So there are probably three reasons why North Korea is doing this now.
--:-- Alex Ward: Number one is you may remember that Trump and Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader and dictator, met in Vietnam last February for a summit.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what Kim Jong-un wanted out of that meeting was sanctions relief that the US and the UN and a bunch of other countries have put on it for its missiles program.
--:-- Alex Ward: Well, that summit failed. Kim Jong-un left embarrassed without that sanctions relief. And so it has been months since that moment.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that's what he desperately wants in order to improve his economy. So reason one, no sanctions yet. Hanoi sucked for him.
--:-- Alex Ward: Reason two is the U.S. and South Korea are in the middle of military exercises. Now, that's always something that's been provocative for North Korea.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In fact, in the past, anytime the U.S. and South Korea do these joint exercises, North Korea usually does something like this. It tests a short missile or, you know, conducts like shooting rockets or whatnot.
--:-- Alex Ward: So that's not out of character. However, what's interesting to note here is that the U.S. and South Korea, on purpose not to provoke North Korea, made it a much smaller, less flashy event.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And yet it seems North Korea is still pretty pissed off.
--:-- Alex Ward: OK. So reason two, the U.S. and South Korea are playing war games, although on a smaller scale right now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Right. OK. And reason three, earlier this month, the U.S. tested an intercontinental ballistic missile of its own, which is, you know, really the big bad boy of the missile community.
--:-- Alex Ward: The one that can take a nuclear weapon from like the U.S. all the way to Asia.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the reason this is probably – was at least on North Korea's radar figuratively and literally is that it traveled 4,200 miles towards the Marshall Islands where, you know, it's not that close to North Korea but it's not so far in the grand scheme of things either.
--:-- Alex Ward: And so you could imagine Kim seeing that and going, wait a minute, if you're testing, why can't I?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So even if this was mostly a display for the United States, a result of Kim being upset with the United States, I like to ask you how a number of countries feel about it starting actually with South Korea.
--:-- Alex Ward: So it important to note here actually that North Korea is involved in two separate conversations. One is with the United States over dismantling its nuclear program.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. And then another one with South Korea, which is partially about the nuclear program, and that's an important aspect.
--:-- Alex Ward: But it's really about improving inter-Korean ties, like in a sense, maybe trying to bring the peninsula back together as one country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Right. They played hockey together in the Olympics. That's right. One of the early episodes, if I recall.
--:-- Alex Ward: Now, one complication for North Korea is without that sanctions relief, it really can't improve those Korean ties.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But South Korea is barred from doing business or creating rail links or whatever it may be with the North Koreans.
--:-- Alex Ward: And so this is sort of the jigsaw puzzle that North Korea is trying to solve. It's like, hey, U.S., lift the sanctions. Let's make a deal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So then maybe I can improve with South Korea. But these tests are actually really bad news for South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
--:-- Alex Ward: Moon Jae-in who brokered a lot of the discussions between North Korea and the United States.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Exactly. In a sense, he's kind of been a pseudo go-between.
--:-- Alex Ward: Yeah. The reason he's doing it is because he staked his presidency on improving ties with North Korea and also improving the economy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Bad news for him is that what these missile tests show is that those North Korean relations aren't going so great and also the economy is not doing so great.
--:-- Alex Ward: And it's almost like an epic troll is that North Korea's missile tests on Thursday were launched four hours before Moon Jae-in's big television interview on the second anniversary of him winning the presidency.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Ouch. OK. How about Japan? All of this is happening in its neighborhood. How does Japan feel right now?
--:-- Alex Ward: So you should know that Japan is pretty hawkish on North Korea and that's partially due to history and that's especially due to its growing weapons programs, nuclear and missile, which really bothers the administration of Shinzo Abe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And one main reason why Japan has been so curious about what North Korea is up to is that when it tests missiles, many times it goes over Japan's actual territory.
--:-- Alex Ward: Right? And if something were to go wrong, you could imagine a missile dropping and actually killing Japanese citizens.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: However, Abe came out with statements saying at least this past test, this one on Thursday, did not threaten his country at all.
--:-- Alex Ward: What about China and Russia? Are they kind of like sitting back like the Michael Jackson gift with the popcorn enjoying all this?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Maybe not as happy as Michael Jackson, but they're not as important to this story.
--:-- Alex Ward: I mean, look, China and Russia are massive backers of North Korea. They're basically the reason North Korea is still around.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So they are important players in the grand scheme of things, but they are not the intended recipient of like the message that North Koreans are trying to send with these missile tests.
--:-- Alex Ward: At least it doesn't appear that way.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Which brings us to the United States. Yeah, so it's important to remember that North Korea's nuclear program is designed specifically to thwart a U.S.-led invasion.
--:-- Alex Ward: So really, any time North Korea tests a missile, it's at least in part meant as a message to the United States.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so when experts that I talk to take these tests in aggregate, what they tell me is that, yes, these tests are meant as a broad message. It's mostly meant for the United States and Trump specifically, and that it's really not good.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Hello? Hello, is this Roshan Carmen?
--:-- Roshan Carmen: How are you, Sean? I was actually just listening to you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Really? Where are you?
--:-- Roshan Carmen: I am on 72nd Street in Manhattan, about to hop into a certain grocery store that everyone loves.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Roshan, I'm calling because rumor has it you recently went to a certain website and bought a certain product.
--:-- Roshan Carmen: Last Christmas, we did Secret Santa, and I got my father-in-law. I was racking my mind, what do I get this man who has everything?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I remembered a certain ad that I had heard just that day, and I went to the website, and I bought a matte black, sleek electric toothbrush.
--:-- Roshan Carmen: With refill and toothpaste. It comes in a beautiful metallic tube.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I presented it to him on Christmas Day, and it blew him away. He had never seen a toothbrush like it. What a dream.
--:-- Roshan Carmen: Yeah, he loves me now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Just so other people can score brownie points with their father's-in-law, what was the website you went to?
--:-- Roshan Carmen: I went to quip.com slash explain. It might have been getquip.com slash explain, actually.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's the one. That's the one. Getquip.com. I think Google must have corrected me.
--:-- Roshan Carmen: For all the people who don't have Google, G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot com slash explained, where the quip starts at just $25 and your first set of refills is free.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's like a field piece.
--:-- Alex Ward: Alex, how have President Trump and Kim Jong-un been doing lately? I feel like we haven't talked about their relationship in a while.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's been rocky. Yeah? Yeah, so back to Hanoi. Yeah, back to Hanoi. Back to Hanoi. Feb. Feb 19 Hanoi. Yeah. Vietnam.
--:-- Alex Ward: Both Trump and Kim Jong-un went to Hanoi to make a deal. It was their second summit.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There was a previous one in Singapore. Sure. And this was supposed to be a way forward.
--:-- Alex Ward: They were supposed to come to at least some sort of tangible agreement on what the U would give North Korea to induce it to dismantle at least part of its nuclear program.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. They both left empty-handed. Like really quickly, if I remember right.
--:-- Alex Ward: So I was in the office at 2 a.m. to follow this live, and I had, well, I had reported on what the outline of the deal that both sides were talking about.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And this was actually quite extraordinary, what they were at least thinking about doing.
--:-- Alex Ward: There were grand ambitions for the summit. There were considerations about formally ending the Korean War.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. There were discussions about dismantling certain parts and key parts of North Korea's nuclear program.
--:-- Alex Ward: There were discussions about opening liaison offices.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, this wouldn't have been the deal. It wouldn't have solved all the problems, but damn, it would have been something quite big.
--:-- Alex Ward: And all of a sudden, it just breaks down.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the reason, the stories differ from both sides, but at its core, both sides made offers the other ones just couldn't accept.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Has this process been more difficult than you thought? And was the North Korean demand for lifting of some sanctions the real sticking point here in that you did not want to do that and they did?
--:-- Alex Ward: And it was about the sanctions. Will there be a third summit, Mr. President?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Basically, they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety.
--:-- Alex Ward: And we couldn't do that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They were willing to denuke a large portion of the areas that we wanted, but we couldn't give up all of the sanctions for that.
--:-- Alex Ward: The U.S. wanted North Korea basically to dismantle all of its nuclear arsenal before receiving any sanctions relief.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Kim basically said, hey, I will dismantle, you know, this important section of my nuclear program, but I basically want all the important sanctions off.
--:-- Alex Ward: Neither side could accept that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so they walked away from Hanoi early before, like, while lunch was being served.
--:-- Alex Ward: And that started a precipitous fall in what seemed like these good vibes between Trump and Kim.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And as you said earlier in the show, so you had Hanoi falling apart, the sanctions remaining. You've got U.S.-South Korean war games plus this ICBM test that the U.S. did what earlier this month, right?
--:-- Alex Ward: Exactly. With all that in mind, did these missile tests from the past week catch the Trump administration by surprise? It definitely seems that way.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In fact, Friday night after that first test, I reported from a source who was very close to the president's thinking, here's the quote I got from this source.
--:-- Alex Ward: Trump is pissed off like Kim fucked him over.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Wow. It's not as bad as it could have been. It wasn't an ICBM test.
--:-- Alex Ward: But what it did was blow away any semblance of real progress.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And clearly for Trump to be that as angered as he was, he and others must have been just absolutely dumbfounded by Kim out of nowhere, seemingly just started to test missiles again.
--:-- Alex Ward: Considering the United States was caught flat footed here, how did the response play out?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think you can look at it in two ways.
--:-- Alex Ward: Here's the good read. I was worried, by the way, after the first test that Trump was going to tweet out something pretty provocative, but he waited until the following morning our time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then he tweeted this.
--:-- Alex Ward: Anything in this very interesting world as possible. But I believe that Kim Jong-un fully realizes the great and economic potential of North Korea and will do nothing to interfere or end it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He also knows that I am with him and does not want to break his promise to me. Deal will happen.
--:-- Alex Ward: Hmm. Positive spin.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So here's the good news. Trump could have tweeted something saying, screw the talks. We're done. Game on.
--:-- Alex Ward: What did he used to call him? Oh, you mean Little Rocket Man. Little Rocket Man. Right. Little Rocket Man.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Little Rocket Man. Here I come. You know, I've got that big red button. Oh, right. TBT.
--:-- Alex Ward: So he didn't resort to all that nonsense.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So here's the bad read. Remember those first words in the tweet. Anything in this very interesting world is possible.
--:-- Alex Ward: Yeah. So you could also read it as Trump's going like, hey, man, don't think that this will last forever.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's possible that if you keep testing things, it's also possible that I decide that diplomacy is no longer going to work.
--:-- Alex Ward: And what adds to the, ooh, the response was bad column is on Sunday, Fox News' Chris Wallace asked Mike Pompeo effectively about the North Korea test and was like, hey, did they break their deal with you?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Pompeo's like, no, man, they were short-range missiles. You know, as long as there are no tests of ICBMs, we're fine.
--:-- Alex Ward: We're still evaluating the appropriate response. But I want everyone in your audience to know we're going to exhaust every diplomatic opportunity there is.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I continue to invite our counterparts for negotiations. We still believe there is a path forward where Chairman Kim can denuclearize without resort to anything beyond diplomacy.
--:-- Alex Ward: That's an interesting take on military actions by North Korea.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: To be fully fair to Pompeo here, what Kim Jong-un has actually said is like, I don't need to test ICBMs anymore. So I'm not going to do that.
--:-- Alex Ward: But he's never said I'm going to stop testing missiles outright.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the two tests did not break his own moratorium.
--:-- Alex Ward: OK. But what Pompeo has done is basically given Kim the green light to keep testing any and all missiles up to an ICBM and then also not an actual nuclear weapon.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So you could imagine now Kim reads that right on Sunday and goes, well, if they're going to give me that green light, I might as well test something else.
--:-- Alex Ward: And it brings us to Thursday. And it could also lead Kim Jong to believe hey maybe as long as I can keep testing anything short of an ICBM we be fine
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But that will definitely ratchet up tensions if North Korea just keeps doing that and keeps doing that
--:-- Alex Ward: So later on hours after the missiles fly Trump is asked about the test
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well we looking at it very seriously right now
--:-- Alex Ward: They were smaller missiles, short-range missiles. Nobody's happy about it, but we're taking a good look and we'll see.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And we already know that Trump was fucking pissed after the first test.
--:-- Alex Ward: So a second one clearly is not making him happy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Last time I checked, North Korea was a pretty huge part of Trump's foreign policy agenda.
--:-- Alex Ward: So this was Trump's, I would say, biggest foreign policy initiative.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. He staked his reputation as a statesman and saying, every other leader has failed on this intractable problem. I'm going to flip this issue on its head.
--:-- Alex Ward: I'm not going to go through the normal diplomatic channels. I myself will deal with Kim Jong-un and I will get this done.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And heading into the Singapore summit in 2017, heading into Hanoi in February, he was trying to prove everyone wrong.
--:-- Alex Ward: I've solved this problem. And the way I've solved this problem is by getting to Kim Jong-un.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And months after Hanoi, Kim Jong-un is saying, you haven't got me yet, buddy.
--:-- Alex Ward: Could the situation in North Korea have broader implications for Trump's foreign policy with Iran, with Venezuela, with other difficult actors he's currently dealing with?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I struggle to say that because I think the Iran situation, the Venezuela situation, the North Korea situation are totally different.
--:-- Alex Ward: If there's a common thread, it's that he's making big bets.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But the North Korea bet is one of his biggest, if not the biggest.
--:-- Alex Ward: And the reason is this. If he is wrong, the path to war comes back.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: North Korea has effectively given the U.S. an ultimatum. What it said is, we want a deal by the end of the year.
--:-- Alex Ward: And if we don't get the deal by the end of the year, we might change course.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That could mean restarting ICBM tests.
--:-- Alex Ward: And I'm old enough to remember what it was like in early 2017.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In early 2017, we were having genuine conversations about what war with North Korea looks like.
--:-- Alex Ward: And the reason was they were marching ever forward on improving its nuclear program.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there was no way to stop them from doing so.
--:-- Alex Ward: Then North Korea tests its biggest nuclear weapon ever.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They test their first ICBM.
--:-- Alex Ward: Then they test an ICBM in November 2017 that could theoretically hit all of the United States.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And we had no solution to stop them.
--:-- Alex Ward: Until, miraculously, Trump for some reason agrees to meet Kim Jong-un.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that led us on this path of diplomacy that's lasted for about a year.
--:-- Alex Ward: It's good that we're not threatening war anymore.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's good that we might be able to solve an intractable problem with diplomacy.
--:-- Alex Ward: But it's looking like time is running out.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If we get to that deadline by year's end, and Trump and Kim have not worked out something that makes them both happy, that talk of war comes back because diplomacy will have broken down.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And how is this time different from 2017?
--:-- Alex Ward: In 2017, the people that Trump had around him were Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Most of the team around him was saying a war with North Korea is not the best deal. Try to figure something else out.
--:-- Alex Ward: This time around, the people around Trump are John Bolton, national security advisor, maybe a new secretary of defense in Patrick Shanahan, who so far has shown himself amenable to anything Trump wants to do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who, along with Bolton, are North Korea hawks.
--:-- Alex Ward: So you can imagine if we go back on the path to war and Trump is asking his advisers, hey, do you think all that I have left is striking North Korea?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In the past, in 2017, people would have been like, think about it an extra second.
--:-- Alex Ward: Now the worry is they might go, yes, Mr. President, strike away.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Alex Ward reports on defense and national security for Vox.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm Sean Ramos-Vurham, and this is Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thanks to Quip Electric Toothbrushes for supporting the show all week.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's now a kid's quip that comes with a smaller brush head and watermelon anti-cavity toothpaste.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So your kid can enjoy brushing while not getting cavities.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's at getquip.com slash explained where the quip starts just $25 and your first set of refills is free.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: G-E-T-Q-U-I-P.com slash explained for the kids.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Todd Vanderwerf, we've had you on the show before to talk about television because television is your jam.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And great news for the people out there. You're launching a new TV podcast for the Vox Media Podcast Network.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes. Great news for the people who love TV, but also great news for the people who just love thinking about our broader culture.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This first season is about the president on TV.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Oh, good politics too. So what exactly are you going to focus on regarding the presidency?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We're talking about the intersection between the presidency and television, which obviously we see the president on TV all the time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But like, how does that make us think about the president? And how does TV think about the presidency when it presents it in fictional contexts in shows like The West Wing and in 24, and even in like shows like Commander-in-Chief or Veep or some of these other shows that presented female politicians long before Hillary Clinton ran for president.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That first episode of Primetime is out. It's live. It's there right now. It's all about The West Wing.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Go find it. Punch that subscribe button while you're at it.
