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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This episode of Today Explained is brought to you by KiwiCo. KiwiCo projects are designed to spark creativity in children of all ages. And right now, Today Explained listeners get to try them out for free when you visit kiwico.com slash explained.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: On the precipice of the Supreme Court's last day before summer vacation, we got two big rulings for how we count people and structure maps. Let's talk about the people. The Supreme Court finally issued a ruling in the census citizenship question this morning.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What happened?
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: A majority of the Supreme Court ruled that for now they're going to leave the citizenship question blocked from being added to the 2020 census forms.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what was their reasoning?
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Well, the majority opinion, this is written by Chief Justice John Roberts. He wrote that essentially the Trump administration's reasoning for wanting to add the question, is this person a citizen of the United States to the 2020 census forms? That reasoning, which was to better protect the voting rights of racial and language minorities, that reasoning the court found was, quote, contrived.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the majority said that it, quote, cannot ignore the disconnect between the decision made and the explanation given for the question by the Trump administration.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: So it's not an all-out rejection of the citizenship question. No, the majority of the courts ruled it is essentially still within the authority of the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census Bureau, to add this question.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But the reasoning to better enforce the Voting Rights Act, that reasoning they are skeptical of.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: You know, another interesting word that was used was this was a distraction, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So it leaves the door open for a better reason then?
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Right. Technically, what the Supreme Court did today was send this issue essentially back in the Commerce Department's court and they can explain what is a reasoning for this that would maybe pass muster with the justices and the courts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Hansi, since the last time we spoke, some incendiary stuff about this citizenship question has come out.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Yeah. Well, this is what the plaintiffs are arguing. Hard drives have surfaced from a major Republican redistricting strategist. His name was Thomas Hoffler. He died last year in August.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And his estranged daughter found his hard drives and realized that these documents could be fairly significant, knowing what role her father played in drawing voting districts around the country on behalf of Republican groups.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: This guy whose computer this was found on did apparently have some influence on the president's thinking about this.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Of course, redistricting is democracy at work. Redistricting is like an election in reverse. Usually the voters get to pick the politicians. In redistricting, the politicians get to pick the voters.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: His estranged daughter, she ultimately turned those hard drives over to a group that was connected with a law firm that just so happened to be representing one of the citizenship question plaintiff groups.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They looked through these files and came across this study that Thomas Hoffler was commissioned to do, an unpublished study from 2015, in which he concluded that adding a citizenship question to census forms would produce the data necessary in order to redraw voting districts that are advantageous, quote, to Republicans and non-Hispanic whites.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: These are the words of Thomas Hoffler. And the plaintiffs also found another document from Thomas Hoffler's hard drives, in which there's a paragraph that puts forth an argument to justify adding a citizenship question by using the Voting Rights Act.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that same paragraph, word for word, shows up in one of the documents the Trump administration turned over as part of the lawsuits to show all the documents it considered before Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross approved adding this question.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And so the plaintiffs are arguing that this shows a connection between Thomas Hoffler's ideas and shows a role that he played in the Trump administration's push for this question, not for a Voting Rights Act, but instead to give Republicans and non-Hispanic white people a political advantage when new voting districts are drawn after the 2020 census.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Did the Hoffler revelations play a role in the case?
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: This was really late-breaking information. And it came weeks before the Supreme Court issued its ruling today. And there was a big question of how this might influence the justices.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it's interesting the opinions that were released today do not mention Thomas Hoffler.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: But a federal judge in New York could possibly issue penalties against Trump administration officials, including a former advisor to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What drama? What's what's next for the poor census?
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: I think the big question for me is, will the Census Bureau send over files to the printing contractor so that it can start printing on July 1st as scheduled, as it's currently budgeted for?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The printer has been waiting to figure out which version of the census forms, the paper forms to print, one with the citizenship question, one without the citizenship question.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: I've checked in with the Census Bureau. They've released a written statement saying they're still reviewing the Supreme Court's decision.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so we're days away from what the Census Bureau says is a deadline.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And I'm watching for that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What happens if that July 1st deadline is missed?
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Well, July 1st is when it's all scheduled and budgeted for to start the printing of 1.5 billion pieces of paper. These are paper forms, letters, envelopes, postcards that have to go out to just about every household in the country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This is a big job.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Any extra pressure on the printing contractor to get that done on time and accurately and ready to go, that really risks possibly jeopardizing the last stages of the preparations for the 2020 census.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Which is just a few months away.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: It starts officially in January in rural Alaska.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In these final months, the Census Bureau really needs to have some finality to know whether or not this question is on it.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Because it's continuing to hire workers for the 2020 census. They need to be trained and need to know how to talk about the 2020 census.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Also, they're gearing up for an advertising campaign and for local outreach.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And those people need to know how to talk about the 2020 census and whether or not there's a citizenship question on there.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I wonder, you know, Now, the president tweeted after the decision dropped, quote, seems totally ridiculous that our government and indeed country cannot ask a basic question of citizenship.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And then continued, I have asked lawyers if they can delay the census no matter how long until the United States Supreme Court is given additional information from which it can make a final and decisive decision on this very critical matter.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He seems dead set on having the citizenship data.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Could he find another way to get it if the citizenship question doesn't work out?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think it's important first to point out that there already is citizenship information that the government has.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And that is from the what is known as American Community Survey.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And if there is ultimately no citizenship question on the 2020 census forms, there is essentially a plan B waiting in the wings.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross approved not only adding a citizenship question to the forms, he also approved the compiling of existing government records on citizenship from various federal agencies by the Census Bureau.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Census Bureau recently said at a public meeting, an official recently said that they are prepared to release that detailed citizenship data from every household in the country.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And they're waiting for guidance from the Commerce Secretary to figure out if he wants that to be done.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So there is a source for citizenship data, whether the question is asked or not.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And there is an instruction to produce block-level citizen voting age population that has not been rescinded.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: These are records that the Bureau said would be more accurate and less expensive than adding a citizenship question onto the 2020 census.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: And this is also the kind of citizenship data that would be necessary to do what Thomas Hoffler outlined in his memos, to draw districts that would benefit Republicans and non-Hispanic white people.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You would then be able to have the data necessary to draw voting districts not on the total number of residents in any given area, but just on citizens or citizens old enough to vote.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: These would allow mapmakers, redistricting officials, to draw political districts that would essentially be beneficial to the Republican Party.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Turns out you don't need a new citizenship question to draw voting districts beneficial to the Republican Party.
--:-- Hansi Lo Wang: The Republicans are already doing that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And today the Supreme Court weighed in on that too.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's coming after a message from our sponsor.
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--:-- Desmond: Yes, it is.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Hey Desmond this is Sean from Vox How are you?
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You're very welcome. So you turned nine today. What did you get for your birthday?
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. Well, have a good day at work. Thank you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Andrew Prokop, senior correspondent, Vox. In addition to the census decision, the court today weighed in on voting districts. Our old friend gerrymandering.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It was kind of a one-two punch.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What did the conservative majority say in this 5-4 decision?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Chief Justice Roberts wrote that partisan gerrymandering claims present political questions beyond the reach of the federal courts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Basically, he's saying that federal courts cannot step in to block or throw out a map that is arguably very gerrymandered on partisan grounds to benefit a particular party.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Was the court looking at specific cases of partisan gerrymandering here and what did they look like if so?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There were two specific maps before the court. One is in North Carolina.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It is a kind of unique case because when drawing this map just a few years ago, the North Carolina Republicans outright admitted that they were drawing 10 districts to benefit Republicans and three to benefit Democrats.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the argument here is that this is whack because Democrats and Republicans are essentially getting the same number of votes.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But instead of the same number of seats, you get 10 Republicans, three Democrats.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, North Carolina is essentially a swing state. They have a Democratic governor right now. It's pretty closely divided.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But the congressional districts are so gerrymandered that, you know, it's a 10 to 3 advantage, which is a huge Republican advantage in the delegation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the districts are drawn in such a way to make it very difficult.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Basically, all of the Democratic voters, almost all of them, are just packed into just these three districts out of 13 in the state.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And this decision by the Supreme Court on North Carolina was paired with another one in Maryland.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And that is about a Democrat-drawn gerrymander. Because both parties do this.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes, yes, both parties do this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Republicans have had more opportunity to do this just because they did so well in elections before the last redistricting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But Maryland is a big example of Democrats doing it too.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: The state has eight districts and so many Republicans were just packed into just one district, the first district.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So since then, there have been seven Democratic-controlled districts in Maryland and one Republican-controlled.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So is the conservative majority saying that these kinds of maps are okay, that it's okay for partisan mapmakers to draw political maps that guarantee their party wins?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Arguably, yes, from their perspective.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: They are saying that this is not an area where the federal courts should step in.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That was Robert's position.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He wrote, we, the Supreme Court, have never struck down a partisan gerrymander as unconstitutional.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He was making the point that this would be a new thing for the Supreme Court to decide to do.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So states can draw their maps on whatever partisan grounds they want.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And, you know, we just we are not going to step in and do anything about it.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And lower federal court judges can't either.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So is that to say that Roberts isn't necessarily saying this is OK that this is how our system works?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But he is saying not sure if the court should be getting involved.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What do the four dissenting judges say?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So Kagan wrote a pretty fiery dissent.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: She said that partisan gerrymanders in these cases deprived citizens of the most fundamental of their constitutional rights, the rights to participate equally in the political process to join with others, to advance political beliefs, and to choose their political representatives.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: In so doing, the partisan gerrymanders here debased and dishonored our democracy, turning upside down the core American idea that all governmental power derives from the people.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Wow. So she was displeased.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: The four liberals have, for several years now, it's looked like they have wanted to set a big a new sweeping standard that in cases of extreme partisan gerrymandering, it is the role of the federal courts to step in and prevent what they saw as people's rights from being taken away by these partisan majorities in state legislatures.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There are different kinds of gerrymandering. There's racial gerrymandering. There's partisan gerrymandering. There's good gerrymandering that can secure a voting block for a particular group.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: There's bad gerrymandering that can seek to take away a particular group's voting power.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Did the majority weigh in on all these different kinds, or was this decision today just about partisan gerrymandering?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Yes, this was about the specific question of partisan gerrymandering, drawing the lines to benefit a party.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Before this, for decades, federal courts, there's been a lot of precedent that they can strike down maps designed to dilute the voting power of racial minorities.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So racial gerrymandering is not addressed by this decision at all.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Also, there's a lot of precedent that maps have to abide by the one person, one vote principle.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But it's difficult because the Constitution gives the power to draw these boundaries to state legislatures.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what Roberts says that the courts have always been lacking is a clear standard for when they should step in, a clear test.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And the retirement of Anthony Kennedy last year may be a big reason for this decision because Kennedy was a little squishy on gerrymandering.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He was not with the liberals, but he was not totally with the conservatives either.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He was leaving open the possibility that at a later date, there could be some test for partisan gerrymandering that would allow the courts to step in.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But now he's gone and replaced by Brett Kavanaugh, who is more clearly in the conservative camp on this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So does that mean that states basically have the green light to go nuts when they're drawing these maps?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It definitely gives state legislatures a freer hand to kind of draw their boundaries how they see fit when it comes to partisanship.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So what that means is heading into these 2020 elections across the country since the maps were last redrawn after big Republican wins across the board during Obama's presidency in the 2010 census, Republicans remain with a huge advantage after the Supreme Court decision.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, I would say that a lot of it is set in stone at this point, and it does look like Republicans will continue to have a lot of opportunities to redistrict in their party's favor.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Andrew Prokop rocks politics at Vox.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm Sean Ramos for him.
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