--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today, we're talking about the latest development in the fight over voting maps in Texas. President Trump has instructed the Department of Commerce to begin work on a new census based on modern-day facts and figures. And, importantly, using the results and information gained from the presidential election of 2024. People who are in our country illegally will not be counted in the census.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The point is, the man is fixated on maps. For further evidence, see Texas. Trump wants Texas to shake up its districts to get him five extra Republican seats in the 2026 midterms.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Texas Democrats fled the state so lawmakers can't push new maps through the legislature. And now the FBI might get involved? Messing with Texas on Today Explained from Vox.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Eleanor Klibanoff, law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune, joins us now. So this is something we started hearing about a couple of weeks ago. We heard that President Trump was asking Texas to consider redrawing its congressional maps to strengthen the GOP majority in the House ahead of the 2026 election.
--:-- Eleanor Klibanoff: That's right. Texas would be the biggest one.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Are you calling them for a complete redrawing of the congressional map?
--:-- Eleanor Klibanoff: No, no, just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The Texas House has like a proposed redraw of the map that tears up a bunch of districts in the Dallas area, the Houston area, the Austin area, as well as the Rio Grande Valley.
--:-- Eleanor Klibanoff: And based on our initial analysis, it looks like if the 2026 midterms go the way the 2024 election went, they will get five additional seats out of this map.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: All of these overwhelming Democratic districts currently represented by Democrats, they would become double digit Trump districts.
--:-- Eleanor Klibanoff: First of all, Texas is doing what we are allowed to by the law. Democrats are freaking out because they are realizing Texas has the authority to redistrict and we're going to do so in a way that's going to lead to these additional seats that will vote Republican and they will be serving in Congress in the next session.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, the House Committee on Redistricting held several hearings for, like, a state government hearing. Tons of attention.
--:-- Eleanor Klibanoff: Donald Trump is trying to rig the next election. A thousand people showed up in Houston. Let's show this country what it looks like to stand, to fight, and to win.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: People submitted comments. They were waiting hours and hours to testify.
--:-- Eleanor Klibanoff: My message today is that I care far more about protecting the cohesiveness of my community and it being properly represented than I do about trying to marginalize anyone I might disagree with.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The committee votes the map out on a Saturday. On Sunday, they set it on the calendar for Monday, and Sunday afternoon, the Democrats skipped town.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Hello, everybody. This is State Representative Arbindles. I'm live on the plane, breaking form.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Hey, everyone. We just arrived here, Chicago. It is 2025. We are breaking form.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We didn't start this fight. Donald Trump started it. He asked the Texas legislature to get rid of your voice.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: So for me, I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to go to work to silence you. Where do they go?
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Most of them went to Chicago to, well, actually, most of them went to the suburbs of Chicago.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: My colleague who agreed to go out when she thought it was Chicago was disappointed to learn that they were in St. Charles, Illinois, well outside Chicago.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: So they went there, you know, where they've gotten a lot of support from Governor Pritzker.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The state of Illinois is proud to stand side by side with these brave Texas Democrats.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Others went to New York, where the governor there has said, you know, they will look at redistricting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm exploring with our leaders every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Some went to Massachusetts. What's happening in Texas matters to the people of Massachusetts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Just sort of fanning out to these like Democratic strongholds, essentially.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Do they have to go there because like what, a Republican governor could like extradite them back to Texas?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes, essentially. They have to leave the state.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: The House of Representatives in their absence voted to issue arrest warrants for them that basically say like, we will send state troopers to your house or we'll try to track you down if we find you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We will bring you to the Capitol and then you cannot leave.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: I have signed the civil arrest warrants. We will work with DPS to locate members.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: These are not like criminal arrest warrants. It doesn't go on their record, but it's go find them and bring them.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: But these warrants only extend to state lines. So, you know, they have to leave the state for fear that they will be brought back.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Of course there is like a federal police force I believe it called the FBI And the latest news is that the FBI might actually get involved here
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Certainly there has been some chatter about that Our sitting Senator John Cornyn has asked for the FBI to get involved.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: President Trump sort of alluded to maybe that being necessary.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: It almost looks like they've abandoned the state. It looks very bad.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, go ahead, please. Should the FBI get involved?
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Well, they may have to. They may have to. No, I know they want them back.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That would be an extraordinary step if that were to happen.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: You know, I'm willing to believe that by the time this airs, it may have happened.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Like, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: But, you know, Texas is a state that pretty proudly likes to manage its own business itself and keep the federal government out of its affairs.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So it would be quite the reversal to allow the federal government to arrest its lawmakers and bring them back to Texas.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: This is obviously like an extreme moment for Texas politics, but it's also not an unprecedented one.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: As I recall, Texas Democrats have fled the state before, right?
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Nobody's seen anything like it, even though they've done it twice before.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Can you remind us under what circumstances and how it ended?
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Recently, they left the state in 2021 to protest a bill that would have further restricted voting access.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Democrats walked out of the special session and more than 50 of them flew to Washington, D.C.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: That was during the Biden administration, kind of a different vibe in D.C.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Vice President Kamala Harris carved out time in her schedule to hold a roundtable with the exiled politicians.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And so I'm here to thank you and to have a conversation with you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They stuck it out there. They burned through one special session. But when the second special session was called, they did end up returning.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And ultimately it did pass. And then in 2003...
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Members, if I can have your attention, a quorum is not present.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: They left the state to do a quorum break on this exact issue, which is a mid-decade redistricting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I think that the chicken dees that did this ought to be ashamed of themselves today.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And that's what they are, is a bunch of chicken dees.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So there is precedent for this to happen.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: I think what's unprecedented about this is, A, the pressure for the legislation that they're protesting protesting is coming from the federal government and B, the way Texas Republican leaders are responding with this like very, usually they just kind of like wait it out and eventually the quorum break breaks.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that is not how this is going.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: How did it go back in 2003 when almost the same thing happened?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Eventually the quorum break broke and they came back and they passed the maps.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And that was the beginning of Republican dominance in Texas.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The reason they did mid-decade redistricting in 2003 at all was because they had just won the House and the Senate for the first time.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: So they took the opportunity, redrew maps that benefited them.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And from there on out, we have seen basically unfettered Republican dominance in Texas.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: So the Democrats who just fled and are in Chicago and other spots, the Chicago suburbs, we should note, they know that the last time they, I guess, kind of gave in on this issue, they forever altered their chances of dominating Texas politics.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Does that mean they're going to hold out longer this time?
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Does that mean it's going to get uglier this time?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If history is any guide, they leave. Eventually, they come back and what was going to happen happens.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: I think they don't like that, this like narrative that it's inevitable.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If you just wait them out, they'll come back.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: It is also just reality, right? Like these people have jobs they have to go to and they have kids.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, school starts here soon. Like, are you going to miss the first day of school?
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Some of them brought their kids with them and now you're like basically a fugitive from your home state.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Like, you know, Texas is a part-time legislature. You make $600 a month.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Like you're not – can't feed your family and like leave your company behind or your business or whatever.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So there are just realities.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And the truth is they don't need all of them to break the quorum break.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, just in the last day here, we've had this sort of escalation from Governor Abbott in which he has asked the Texas Supreme Court to vacate the seats of these members who have broken quorum, which is unprecedented, like shocking to all the legal experts that I've talked to.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And so there's both sort of a within Texas, a constitutional crisis.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then, of course, these like national democracy questions about like who gets to decide when the rules are set and when you change the rules in the middle of the game and things like that.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And then what happens?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Republicans aren't necessarily guaranteed these five seats, but they'll probably get them.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Right.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So if the quorum break ends in one way or another, they absolutely will pass the map.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: We'll have the midterms in 2026.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: These districts seem very likely to go for Republicans based on 2024 performance.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: But 2024 was a pretty exceptional year in Texas, most notably that we saw Latino voters swing so far for President Trump compared to historical precedent.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And a lot of these maps are based on the idea that those same voters will go for Republican candidates across the board in 2026.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Now, President Trump is not on the ballot in 2026.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It remains to be seen whether Latino voters are, you know, thinking this is what I voted for and I love this, or if there's any buyer's remorse that might sort of turn some of those seats a little bit more competitive than you would think.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Of course, it's also not guaranteed that Donald Trump gets his five Republican districts because now that Texas is going this route, governors like Newsom in California are threatening revenge, right?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Right. We have basically a redistricting arms race afoot now.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And you've got governors in California, governors in New York and Illinois saying maybe we'll take a look at our maps.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But then you also have President Trump saying, you know, well, then I'll get Missouri to take a look at their maps.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: And now suddenly we are in a mess of a situation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And you've got even some Republican lawmakers in Congress talking about legislation to basically say, like, we have to stop this before it gets on top of us.
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: We shouldn't have this sort of enormous instability of constantly shuffling lines.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Part of the reason why this is happening in Texas first is that we're very large, and so you can get five seats in a way that some states don even have five seats
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: But also our filing deadline is very very early
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so this is just sort of a testing ground in Texas
--:-- State Representative Arbindles: Like there no reason to believe that with President Trump you know five seats will be enough and that he will stop there versus trying to get other states to redistrict as well
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can read and support Eleanor Klibanoff's work at Texas Tribune dot org.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We're going to explore the Democrat strategy with a Democratic strategist next on Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Steve Maviglio, a longtime Democratic strategist based in Sacramento, California, joins us now.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Well, it's called retaliation. Democrats have no power when it comes to the national electoral scene right now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We're out of power in the Senate, out of power in the House, out of power in the presidency.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And this is the one lever of power that we have remaining.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Since Texas made the first move, Democrats have been in the mood to fight back Trump at every level.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And you're seeing it play out here.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: It is on. Governor Newsom says California will square off with Texas, all to stop President Trump, Newsom says, from rigging the 2026 election.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They've triggered this response, and we're not going to roll over, and we're going to fight fire with fire.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: So the process is, he declares a special election. The legislature passes a bill with maps. That goes onto the ballot for a special election in November of this year.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Voters vote up or down on it, and then it goes into effect in December.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: We have the largest congressional delegation in the nation, And it's overwhelmingly dominated by Democrats now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But there are ways through gerrymandering that could gain us even more seats.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: The numbers go from five to seven depending on who you talk to.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The thought is if Texas pull the trigger, we're going to do the same.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And then you'll see probably the ripple effect across the country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So you'll do the same. And then some other Republican states, say Missouri, will retaliate against you.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And then the question would be like, what can New York or Illinois do?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Basically something like that.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Yeah, it's going to be a series of dominoes that will fall across the country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So what you're saying is there might be like a big national embrace of partisan gerrymandering. Everyone will get on board.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Yeah.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But, you know, you have to look at it this way. Most of the states already are there.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: A lot of these states, North Carolina, Indiana, a couple places, it's really hard to get more seats for one party or the other.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: California moved forward in a big way a few years ago by really making an independent commission for such a big state.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: We're going to take the power of withdrawing the district lines away from the politicians, from the legislators, and give it to ordinary citizens.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it's going to be a whole new ballgame here in California.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: We're not going to have lawmakers drawing their own districts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I fought against that at the time, and I'm having a lot of, I told you so moments right now, because my policy at the time was, why are we doing this when the rest of the country isn't doing this?
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Why is we as a democratic state are basically handing over our party control over the map to an independent commission when nobody else is doing it?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And lo and behold, look what's happening.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: But you're being rhetorical, right? Because the reason to do it is because it's democratic.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Giving people the power to draw congressional maps instead of having it be a partisan process that only benefits one side
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Yeah Yeah amen right It a dilemma because like all the good government groups the common causes ACLUs they were all gung-ho for this in California because they thought if California did this, then the rest of the country would follow.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But the Republicans never did.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: So a couple other Democratic states did, but nobody else did it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we're left at a disadvantage once again because Democrats did the right thing instead of the smart thing.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: You know, and Democrats are trying to point out the unfairness of all this and how wrong it is.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I really don't think Donald Trump gives two squats about that.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Texas Republicans and just about every Republican all over the country follows him, whatever he does these days.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So, you know, I'm not optimistic about that, but I think we have to wait and see and then see what happens.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: It seems like what Donald Trump cares about is the bond market. The name's market. Bond market.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I don't know if this is having any effect on the bond market at the moment.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: But a bigger issue for your side of the aisle might be that people are quite mad at the Democratic Party right now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Its approval rating is, I think, at its lowest point in like 35 years.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Do you think their actions on this districting issue could help that? Or is this kind of fleeing the state of Texas and doing tit for tat out in California is going to further bury them in polling?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, the problem is we're sort of rudderless and leaderless right now.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And our governor here is doing everything he can to put his face forward because he wakes up every morning, looks in the mirror and says, how can I be president?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And this is his latest tool.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Do you think he's, you know, raising his profile in some way by trying to retaliate against Texas Governor Greg Abbott?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, there's no doubt about it.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Listen, Democrats right now, especially the ones that vote in primaries, are looking for a leader who is going to be the anti-Trump.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I think Gavin Newsom is doing that.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: We see the governor of New York. She's got a tough primary against a more progressive opponent and possibly a tough general election.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So she's trying to get her Democratic base.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And to think that we're going to do this with a purity test and make sure it's completely fair to everybody involved.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The reason we are able to draw the lines because we're Democrats, because the majority of people in this state selected us, elected us to be leaders.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Pritzker in Illinois, same thing, wants to be president, doing all he can.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Everything's on the table.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: I mean, look, we've got to fight fire with fire.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They've frankly tossed the rule book out and they're just acting in an unconstitutional fashion and what we're going to have to do is whatever it takes to preserve democracy.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And so I think you're seeing a lot of this from Democrats who realize, wow, this is the only bit of power that we actually have.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Let's use it. Let's not just sit back and get rolled like we have been on so many other issues.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And I think that's why you see an issue that's pretty mundane suddenly translating into a main topic of political conversation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think it was Mahatma Gandhi who once said, an eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Stephen. Are you concerned that we're doing irreparable harm to our democracy here with this kind of strategy?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, the message we're trying to save democracy from Trump by doing something anti-democratic is one that troubles a lot of people, including myself.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: At least in California, the voters will have an opportunity to weigh in on that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But in many other places like Texas, they're not.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: It's just being rammed through. That's what's really anti-democratic.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So, yeah, it's a mixed message on both sides.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: But again, you know, Democrats, we want to fight fire with fire.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We want an eye for an eye.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And we haven't been doing that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there's a lot of Democrats that said, well, damn, it's about time you do.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: When they go low, we go just as low.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, you're a strategist. So let me ask you this question.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: If this is tit for tat and Texas goes first and then California follows, you know, play this out for us like 10 steps.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Who ultimately wins this fight?
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Which states have more seats to create out of thin air?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, the Republicans have gamed this out. They're good at this, right?
--:-- Steve Maviglio: They're going to pick up more seats by this.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's no doubt about it.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: So Democrat strategy here is to play tit for tat.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But you're saying that Republicans eventually win that game.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Yeah.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If you go down the line and analyze every state, the potential is for Republicans to win this in the long term.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: OK, then why play the game?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We have no choice, right?
--:-- Steve Maviglio: That's what Newsom and some of the Democrats are saying.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We cannot let them get away with this and just sit back and say, OK, bleak.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Bleak. Very bleak.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But, you know, when you don't win elections, this is what happens.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And that's why Democrats need to get back in the business of focusing on issues that people care about and win elections.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Our producer, Peter, thinks that democracy is cooked.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Do you think democracy is cooked?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: No, it's on the burners.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: But, you know, I sadly and sometimes unbelievably have great faith in the American people to right the ship.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think the pendulum swings back.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Things go in cycles.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm an optimist.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Hey, hell yeah. Me too.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Apparently, Peter isn't.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: Well, it's a game of chess, honestly. It's not checkers.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, there's a lot of strategic moves that are being made on both sides here.
--:-- Steve Maviglio: And if one piece moves in the wrong box, game over.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Steve Maviglio, Democratic strategist with Forza Communications in Sacramento, California.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm Sean Rameswaram for him.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This is Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: As you heard, our program today was produced by Peter Balonon-Rosen.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It was edited by Amina Al-Sadi.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Fact-checked by Laura Bullard.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And hosted by me, Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can find out more about our award-winning shows at podcasts.voxmedia.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.