--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Saks Fifth Avenue. Fall is here. Might be time to find some nice new pieces you can wear again and again. With Saks Fifth Avenue, it can be a breeze to shop for your personal style, like maybe a relaxed Prada blazer or Gucci loafers that are great for both work and the weekend.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can find inspiration for your personal style every day at Saks Fifth Avenue.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's like 85 degrees in D.C. today. Summer is coming. School is ending, which means it's graduation season, and we're learning that graduation looks and sounds a lot different in the pandemic.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: On behalf of the faculty, the students, and the alumni, I would like to welcome you to the first virtual commencement ceremonies in the history of Georgia Southwestern State University.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You got no prom, you got no real ceremony, but don't feel bad, at least your originals, you are the one and onlys, you're gonna have a whole lot of fun for the rest of your life knowing that sing it from the rooftops, we are the class of 2020, we got a virtual graduation, we got a drive by, and we got McConaughey to do our commencement.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Now, while having Matthew McConaughey drop into your commencement might sound all right, all right, all right, it still falls short of what a lot of people have been dreaming of their entire lives.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: People like Annie Chata. She's a graduating senior at the University of Washington in Seattle.
--:-- Annie Chata: Oh, man. Honestly, this is going to sound terrible because I feel like I always plan things out and all that good stuff. I thought everything was going to be normal. And I think that was a terrible assumption I had.
--:-- Annie Chata: I think I should have been more realistic. Like, I'm an optimist. So I'm like, you know, it's going to be fine. It's going to be okay. We'll figure it out.
--:-- Annie Chata: You are not going to miss your graduation. No, I wasn't. And you know, it's so tough because I'm a child of formerly incarcerated parents. My dad, he was in prison for a long time and he missed my high school graduation, unfortunately.
--:-- Annie Chata: So, you know, the college one, you know, since he's out, it was supposed to be kind of like, hey, you know, like I did this for us.
--:-- Annie Chata: And especially as a first-generation, it's like, I don't want to say I only went to school to college just to walk the stage. That's not right. But the stage and just the graduation, the commencement symbolizes so much.
--:-- Annie Chata: It's just so sad because I couldn't, I feel like I failed to give him that moment because I know it was going to be a lot for them to just to finally soak it in like, okay, after all these personal circumstances, we've been through like, one of the things that we thought you couldn't do because we don't have the financial stability, you did it and you figured it out.
--:-- Annie Chata: So it was really hard. I mean, I had to break the news. I thought it was going to happen, honestly. Like, I was like, this is in February, you know, that was my mindset.
--:-- Annie Chata: And I was like, my graduation's in June. That's like a lot of time for them to figure it out. You know, all the health officials and you know, the administration, like they'll figure it out.
--:-- Annie Chata: And unfortunately, that was wrong. But it was tough. Yeah.
--:-- Annie Chata: When did you find out? When did you get the official word from the University of Washington?
--:-- Annie Chata: Oh, you know, I was really upset at them for that. I was on the phone with advisors and they were telling me that they're figuring it out.
--:-- Annie Chata: And this was in the beginning or end of March. And they were like, they're going to do something. Don't worry. Like they know how much this moment means to you guys, all that stuff.
--:-- Annie Chata: And they literally told us in the middle of April. So very recently, I found out. And it was like an email.
--:-- Annie Chata: So other universities like University of Southern California, San Francisco State, different universities were postponing it. So even though they sent like, hey, it's not going to happen.
--:-- Annie Chata: We're going to postpone it into fall. Our university didn't even say anything like that. They just said, unfortunately, you have a virtual commencement and this is what it is.
--:-- Annie Chata: And next year in 2021, depending on the situation, there might be some activities you can participate in, but we don't know what that looks like.
--:-- Annie Chata: What's a virtual commencement anyway, for the people who aren't familiar, which I imagine is most people?
--:-- Annie Chata: Yeah. So, you know, honestly, I haven't been through it, so I'm hoping to see. But I've seen videos and it just looks like the dean, the president of the school, like a bunch of different people just calling out your names and putting a photo up of you with a quote as to what they said.
--:-- Annie Chata: Because that's what I have. So it's basically a Zoom. It's what we're doing right now. Yeah, a Zoom chat.
--:-- Annie Chata: And it's so, and they were like, hey, if you want to send this link to your family and friends, you can. Like, I will send it to them, of course, but what are they going to do?
--:-- Annie Chata: They can't even scream and yell. Like, it has to be on mute. So they're just screaming in their house and they're going to look so weird.
--:-- Annie Chata: Like, all the neighbors are going to be like, what are they doing in there? How did you break the news to your dad who had just gotten out of prison and was going to see your first ever graduation?
--:-- Annie Chata: And this is the big one, I imagine. Yeah, it was tough. I called my mom first because I'm very close to my mom.
--:-- Annie Chata: And, you know, she's been through a lot. And it was tough because I was crying. I was like bawling uncontrollably because I was I really wanted that moment.
--:-- Annie Chata: It meant so much to me. And I know it meant so much to them. And she was just, you know, she's my mom, like a mom.
--:-- Annie Chata: They just they just know what to say. You know, they had plans to come visit me up here during my graduation of course and just celebrate with me.
--:-- Annie Chata: And it was it was tough. Like, I don't I don't think I've ever gotten over that moment.
--:-- Annie Chata: And I didn't call my dad a week later, which was really bad. He was just like, it's OK. You're going to go get your master's, right?
--:-- Annie Chata: So we'll go again. And I was like, well, you know, that's a great question. I don't know if I want to do that at this point.
--:-- Annie Chata: Oh, that's a bummer. I hope you do. I hope you do so that you can have the moment that you deserve.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Have you put any thought into how you're going to celebrate now that you know that your official commencement will be a glorified Zoom?
--:-- Annie Chata: You know, I don't even know. I forgot when the date is, which sounds terrible.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I knew the set dates of in-person graduation. No, I think a lot of people can identify with you not really knowing when it's going to happen.
--:-- Annie Chata: People don't know what day it is or what time it is. Yeah.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I'm wondering like, okay, how are they going to accommodate this? Are they going to pre-record this? Cause that's going to make me even more upset, you know, but in a way I live with my significant other and I have two dogs, two puppies.
--:-- Annie Chata: So it's just going to be us honestly, because my mom and dad can't visit me and I'm not going to let them visit me in a plane.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So it's just going to be me. I don't know what I'm going to do right now.
--:-- Annie Chata: I'm sure my significant other has something planned. He keeps telling me that there's something and I have to be available a certain time and this like that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I just don't know what's going to come after. Maybe a Zoom chat with my parents, but it just, it's really sad because, you know, I was supposed to be around my family and I can't even go visit them during this time, nor can they still come up here.
--:-- Annie Chata: It's just going to have to be FaceTime or Zoom chats for now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, Annie, I tell you what, you know, our plan for this episode was to talk to someone like you and then to talk to a reporter named Annie Lowry from the Atlantic about what graduates like you are facing right now, like with the job market and with the economy.
--:-- Annie Chata: But if you want to stick around after that, we're going to throw you a graduation ceremony on this show.
--:-- Annie Chata: Oh, that's so awesome. I would love to. Would you come hang out at a personalized graduation ceremony for just for you?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, it's all about me. I'm just kidding. Of course I would.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: All right, we're going to take a break and then talk to other Annie, Annie Lowry, about what kind of world you're facing as a graduate in 2020.
--:-- Annie Chata: And then we're going to throw you a party. Yay! I'm so excited.
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--:-- [Theme music fades in]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Annie Lowry, you're a reporter at The Atlantic. I want to ask you a question I don't usually start interviews with. Can I ask how old you are?
--:-- Annie Lowry: Yeah, I'm 35. I'm like a, I guess on the older side of millennials, but like middle of the road millennial.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Totally. I'm 35 too. And I remember graduating back in like 2007.
--:-- Annie Lowry: It was a tricky time. Do you have recollections as well?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. I mean, so I graduated in 2007 and the economy was completely falling apart at that point.
--:-- Annie Lowry: It was pretty clear that things were going wrong. Yeah.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it was terrifying. And I remember at that point, I knew that I was not good for anything other than journalism.
--:-- Annie Lowry: I'm just like barely capable of being a journalist. And that was like the only thing I had ever prepared myself for.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And being like, this industry might not survive, right? Like I might have to get like an actual practical job.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I've been really lucky that I didn't have to do that. But it was really hard watching a whole cohort, like our cohort, go through that.
--:-- Annie Lowry: It was brutal. This feels so different.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It was easy to not just completely despair, you know, 10, 12, 13 years ago. But now I can just imagine what these kids are going through must look so much worse.
--:-- Annie Lowry: Yes, I think it's worse in some ways and perhaps better in others.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the worst part is that this is a higher unemployment rate already than we saw during the worst of the Great Recession.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So we're roughly 15 percent unemployment for a bunch of complicated technical reasons. That's kind of an undercount.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the highest it got during the Great Recession was just around 10 percent.
--:-- Annie Lowry: Where it might be somewhat better, and we don't know this, but we surmise it, is that the Great Recession itself lasted about 19 months, 18 months.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then there were a number of years afterwards that might as well have been recessionary years because they were so weak.
--:-- Annie Lowry: We don't know that this is going to last that long. There's some hope that things will pick up a little bit faster on the other side.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so there's a chance that we're not going to have 18 months of contraction. The contraction part will probably be fast, but it will probably be a lot more severe.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So you know I don't know that that really is a glimmer of hope but that's what people are hoping for.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So what does it mean for you know the one thing that graduating seniors care about which is finding a job?
--:-- Annie Lowry: It really bleak out there really really bleak.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So there's a pretty big body of academic economic evidence around what happens to people who graduate into a recession.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So that's whether they're leaving school out of high school or college, dropping out, whatever.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What happens to them when they're formally entering the labor force, not just for seasonal or temporary work?
--:-- Annie Lowry: And it's really bad. So you take very large initial earnings and employment losses as a cohort, and then those losses stick around for like 20 years.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so it can put you on a lower lifetime's earning trajectory because 20 years is a long time to earn less money.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And so for the class of 2020, that is what we expect to happen.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They are going to have a really high unemployment rate, and probably that kind of scarring and pain is going to stick around for them for quite some time compared with like the class of 2019 or 2018.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So what are graduating seniors like, you know, other Annie in Washington state to do?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think it's going to be interesting to see political systems change to accommodate the demands of these younger people.
--:-- Annie Lowry: It has been apparent for decades that the United States has, for instance, a problematically expensive and insufficient in coverage system of health insurance.
--:-- Annie Lowry: It has been apparent for decades that the United States has a system of child care that's wildly unequal and that parents are by and large left alone to figure out what to do with their kids up to the age of five, unlike all of our peer OECD countries.
--:-- Annie Lowry: The United States has looser labor standards. It has a smaller safety net. All of these things combine to manufacture precarity.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there are policy solutions for all of these things. But to what extent the political system is capable of responding is a really big problem.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And this gets into issues of partisanship, of voter disenfranchisement, of the structure of the Senate.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's really, really hard. But, you know, Gen Xers and millennials are now really, really big and powerful voting blocks.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And to the extent that, you know, they haven't really existed in an economy where their rising tide has been lifting all boats for some time, you know, maybe there's more of a demand for change.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, the last time we had you on the show, it was to talk about your book, Give People Money, which is all about universal basic income.
--:-- Annie Lowry: Were you surprised to see Donald Trump do a version of that last month?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: No.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So there are really great proposals that would basically say when we have an employment shock, when all of a sudden a bunch of people get laid off, we should just start sending checks to them.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And we should tie those checks to the unemployment rate. So once the unemployment rate comes back down, you stop doing it automatically.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And this would be a really efficient and effective counter cyclical policy.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So, you know, there are various proposals to do this. I think the fact that Republicans pushed the one-time $1,200 check is a real title shift in the sort of acceptability of these type of cash policies.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Though, you know, you've seen kind of rebate checks before, right? George W. Bush did some version of this where a ton of people got a check with his name on it.
--:-- Annie Lowry: I don't know that it was literally a check with his name on it. I think that was a first. But they got these rebates back from him.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And when the money reaches the American people, we expect they will use it to boost consumer spending, and that will spur job creation as well.
--:-- Annie Lowry: So I think you'll see more of that. It's really effective counter-recessionary policy. It's generally pretty easy for governments to do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You get people cash in pocket. They spend it. That really helps you fight your recession.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And right now, we're not doing nearly enough to fight the giant, miserable recession that we have on top of this really horrible public health crisis.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I guess like outside of, say, voting and using the political power of this new cohort, what can young people who are graduating this week, this weekend, do in the meantime while there are no jobs, while they can't even pick up a gig at a restaurant or a bar and make some good tip money, you know?
--:-- Annie Lowry: I think for a lot of people you wait it out and you assume that employers are not going to treat this like a normal recession.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And hopefully they're not going to punish people for having gaps on their resumes during this period.
--:-- Annie Lowry: But I think that this is an age cohort that has never assumed that anything is going to be handed to them.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They've only known political dysfunction and a high inequality, slow growth economy.
--:-- Annie Lowry: And maybe they have a lot of grit because of that, right? Maybe they're like, I know that nothing is going to get handed to me. I know that the world is messed up. I've only known forever wars and income inequality.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm going to do it myself. And so I think that on the silver linings part of this, I think that you could see some real ingenuity in this cohort.
--:-- Annie Lowry: But in the meantime, yeah, I mean, improving your training or educational credentials, including with online programs, those kinds of things are going to be really important.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then as shelter in place is lifted, figuring out where those employment opportunities are is going to be hard.
--:-- Annie Lowry: But it's something that these young people are going to have to do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Annie, thank you so much for your time.
--:-- Annie Lowry: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Annie Chata, welcome back. What did you think of what Annie Lowry had to say?
--:-- Annie Chata: I was really optimistic after listening to her.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Really?
--:-- Annie Chata: I kind of felt optimistic in the sense that it's going to be difficult and it's going to be really hard for the next couple of years.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I don't know how long, but I think for me, I am someone that is resilient.
--:-- Annie Chata: And that's something that has always stuck with me. And I feel like this is just another situation that I'm going to have to get through and I'm not going to sit around.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it might take a while for me to get there and for my cohort and every single person that you know going through something right now.
--:-- Annie Chata: But I think holding on to that glimmer of hope is what kind of getting me through the moment.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think that a great attitude.
--:-- Annie Chata: And I'm glad you optimistic because the alternative is to be really cynical and to despair.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And in my experience, that's less productive.
--:-- Annie Chata: Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to it's going to be this year or a few years from now, like what's going to happen.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I'm going to figure it out just like every other situation.
--:-- Annie Chata: And I hope my cohort and all the people that, you know, are listening to this kind of hold on to that glimmer of hope.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's really hard, but that's that's the best that we can do right now.
--:-- Annie Chata: And, you know, it's going to be OK.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That felt like a commencement speech to me, if I'm being honest, but I prepared one for you anyway, so I'm going to do it now.
--:-- Annie Chata: So are you ready for a little ceremony?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes. Oh, yes. Okay, here it comes.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Graduates and guests, welcome to the University of Washington's 144th commencement ceremony honoring the graduating class of 2020.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Please welcome the universe. Host of Today Explained, Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Hello, Annie and the class of 2020. It's great to be here today.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I want to share with you something a friend of mine said recently that really stuck with me.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Maybe it's because he said it yesterday. Only time will tell.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What he said was short and sweet. He said, the things I would do for precedented times.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I host this daily news podcast for Vox called Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Every day my team and I try to explain the most important news in the country and the world, and we end up using the word unprecedented a lot.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So much that we actually try to not use it for fear it'll lose its meaning.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But think for a minute about all of the unprecedented things we've seen in the past few years.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Back in 2016, when a lot of you were just showing up to your universities, we had this unprecedented election.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We were going to get our first female president or our first reality TV president. It was unprecedented.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And after we were inundated with tweets, with investigations, with indictments, with firings, an impeachment, a Brexit, and now we have a pandemic.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We've had versions of these kinds of events in our history but everything feels without precedent now because there's just so much more information and misinformation flying at us at all times from different sources and it's overwhelming right.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's why shows like ours exist but it's not always bad and that's what I wanted to remind you of today.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think if it were all bad it'd be really hard to make a Daily News show.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It'd be really hard to get out of bed in the morning. It would just be totally exhausting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I have to say that after two and a half years and almost 600 episodes of this show, the thing that's given me and my team the most hope about the world is you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's the class of 2020. You're a generation that doesn't assume the world is beyond repair, that doesn't look at a divisive politics and disengage.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Some of the episodes that have given us the most inspiration and hope were about you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In the early days of our show, we covered the march for our lives.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm sure some of you were out there marching in Washington, D.C. or elsewhere in the country demanding gun control and making the whole world pay attention.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Then Greta showed up, and she wasn't even old enough to vote, but she stared down the most powerful people in the world at the United Nations.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: She led climate strikes across the entire planet.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If this pandemic that has canceled the commencement that you thought you were going to have today has been good for anything, it's that it's made more people aware of all the work we have to do in this country and around the world.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm not going to lie, It's a tall order, it's a lot of work, and it's always an incremental fight, but it's a good fight.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's the most important fight, and I'm so glad the class of 2020 is joining that fight in earnest today.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We're so excited to have you. So, congratulations on your graduation, Annie C., and the class of 2020!
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yay! Thank you so much.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And thanks also to the Today Explained team, Amina Asadi, Bridget McCarthy, Ifem Shapiro, Jillian Weinberger, Halima Shah, and Noam Hassenfeld, who makes music too.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The mysterious Breakmaster Cylinder handles the rest of the bops.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Cecilia Ley handles the facts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Liz Kelly Nelson is the editorial director of all the Vox podcasts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Special help this week from Paul Mounsey.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today Explained is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you so much, Annie, and congratulations again.
--:-- Annie Chata: Yeah. And I brought some bubbly. Oh my God. I've never popped champagne in a closet before. I'm really scared.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think it'll be okay. To hear this noise. Yay! Oh, nothing came out. Just kidding. Cheers, Annie. Cheers.
