--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today Explained here with Eric Levitt, senior correspondent at Vox.com, to talk about the 2024 election.
--:-- Eric Levitt: That can't be right. I thought we were done with that. I feel like I'm Pacino in three. Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Why are we talking about the 2024 election again?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The reason why we're still looking back is that it takes a while after an election to get all of the most high-quality data on what exactly happened. So the full picture is starting to just come into view now. And you wrote a piece about the full picture for Vox recently, and it did bonkers business on the internet. What did it say? What struck a chord?
--:-- Eric Levitt: Yeah, so this was my interview with David Shore of Blue Rose Research. He's one of the biggest sort of democratic data gurus in the party. And basically, the big picture headline takeaways are...
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--:-- Eric Levitt: 2020, 2020, 24. The big picture headline takeaways are that voters who say they don't care much about politics, who don't follow the news closely, who don't always vote in elections, And that group moved really strongly towards Donald Trump. This was a group that was split about evenly between Biden and Trump in 2020. And this time it was overwhelmingly for Donald Trump.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think that what is most striking, perhaps, in his data is the movements among younger voters. For the entire time that I've been covering politics, there was a basic narrative where the Republican Party was essentially facing a ticking time bomb where they were going to have to fundamentally make more peace with social liberalism and with the welfare state because the rising generations in the United States, millennials and Zoomers, just weren't buying what they were selling.
--:-- Eric Levitt: And yeah, they can cobble together these electoral college majorities for a little while, but this is just a matter of time before we get to the progressive majority. Between December 2015 and March 2017, among Republicans aged 18 to 29, 23% left the party. This is an existential crisis for the Republican Party and we have to have a brutal discussion about it. We alienate young voters because of gay marriage. We have a policy problem. We alienate Latinos, the fastest growing voter group in the country. There is a demographic time bomb.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What happened in 2024 completely upends that sense of demographic destiny. voters under 30 were narrowly pro-Trump even after going for Biden by huge margins in 2020. Every demographic group under the age of 25 is more Republican than the millennial generation was. The youth vote traditionally goes to the Democrats, not so much in this one. And while Harris underperformed with voters under 30, Trump gained compared to 2020.
--:-- Eric Levitt: The biggest driver for Gen Z? The economy. Young people have gone from being the most progressive generation since the baby boomers to becoming potentially the most conservative. What did we learn about why Young's went for Trump?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, so I think that the data we have is better at telling us what happened than why. But we do have some informed guesses. I think that one factor here is that it's part of this broader phenomenon of politically disengaged voters moving to the right, that younger people are often a bit less tuned into the news. They've got their own sort of coming of age and lives and romantic lives in college and whatever else occupying a lot of their attention.
--:-- Eric Levitt: But there's also just the fact that politically disengaged voters tend to have weaker partisan identities, ideological identities. And it's also true of younger voters who also often have not fully formed their political identities. Another factor that might explain this divergence between young voters today and the millennial generation are that the two just had different formative experiences.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so the millennial generation, a lot of us, came of age under the second term of the George W. Bush administration when you saw the Iraq war coming apart. Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. Hurricane Katrina destroying New Orleans and the response really being pretty incompetent. Americans have every right to expect a more effective response in a time of emergency. And then, of course, above all, the financial crisis and the Great Recession.
--:-- Eric Levitt: The market is not functioning properly. And this is followed by a two-term presidency from a really exceptionally charismatic figure, Barack Obama. Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can! And so this arguably cements the millennial generation's lean towards the Democrats, whereas Zoomers, maybe a lot of these younger ones, came of age with a Democratic president presiding over COVID. We need everyone to keep washing their hands.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then rising inflation. That I'm taking inflation very seriously and it's my top domestic priority. And an Afghanistan withdrawal that was really messy. 13 brave Americans lost their lives along with hundreds of Afghans in a suicide bomb. And get this sense that it's a, you know, 80-year-old with negative charisma. Come on, man. Who doesn't really speak to them, doesn't really know their references.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Jason Kelsey or Travis Kelsey? Mama Kelsey. I understand she makes great chocolate chip cookies. And so maybe this creates kind of an alienation from the Democratic Party and more of an openness to the GOP. So that's one factor. Another explanation is that maybe this cohort of young people was just always going to be a bit more conservative because of who their parents were
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Who are their parents? Well, so in some survey data the baby boom generation is more left wing than Gen X was. And the baby boomers were millennials' parents and Gen Xers are the parents of these young Zoomers. And so in some surveys, these young Zoomers are more likely to say that their parents were Republican than millennials were. And it's possible that these people had more conservative parents. And so they're a bit more conservative.
--:-- Eric Levitt: So if you're looking for someone to blame for the current political situation of this country, find someone from Gen X. Yeah, I think so.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Trying to find the reality bites joke here, but I'm not sure I'm going to get it. All you do around here, Troy, is eat and couch and fondle the remote control. I am not under any orders to make the world a better place.
--:-- Eric Levitt: This is a story about younger voters. As I said, even women under 25 were more Republican than millennial women under 25 were in earlier elections. But this is kind of primarily a story about young men. So the gender gap among 18-year-olds in 2024 was well over 20 points. That's more than double the gender gap among senior voters. It's the largest we've ever seen in American politics.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, so that just raises the question of why. Why are young men moving to the right? And I think it's a difficult question to fully answer. There is some evidence, though, that this is not a U.S.-specific phenomenon, that we're seeing this same trend in several other countries. In Norway, there's a running poll of high school students where, in recent years, the fraction of young men who agree with the statement, gender equality has gone too far, has spiked.
--:-- Eric Levitt: And so, you know, what's common between all these different countries, it's tempting to say social media, and that there's some dynamic going on in social media, where content that is critical of liberal assumptions on gender has a bigger platform than it did maybe in previous eras.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, on the other hand, there is this global trend where a lot of young men have been given the impression that fundamentally left of center politics and parties cares less about men than about women. And then there's also this sense that there are dysfunctions in the dating market for young people that are breeding resentments that are then politicized by influencers in the manosphere, that it's because of progressive political culture that you can't find a girlfriend.
--:-- Eric Levitt: There's this new progressive think and this new generation of women who seem to believe that if we completely fuck it all up, it's going to end up better. I think that feminism has brainwashed a lot of women to think that they need to play the male role. There's a reason why you take his last name and not the other way around.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: These cultural trends are concerning and they could be persistent, but there is also this opportunity to reach this constituency. Different young male voters are responding to different things. And bottom line is not presiding over large price increases, increasing the salience of issues like health care, where Democrats have a bit more credibility. These things should help with all voters, including young male voters.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Whether after that there's still a persistent problem because of cultural trends remains to be seen. What are Democrats to do about the young male voters? Should we ask some young males? Should we ask some podcasters? No, I think we'll ask the New Yorker.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The well-dressed man in the monocle when we're back on Today Explained. Support for Today Explained comes from Chime.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Nobody likes fees and complicated banking, says Chime. And Chime gets that, says Chime. Chime is a financial technology company that says they understand that every dollar counts. So when you set up direct deposit through Chime, they say you get access to fee-free features such as free overdraft coverage, getting paid up to two days early with direct deposit, so much more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Chime says with qualifying direct deposits, you can be eligible for free overdraft up to $200 on debit card purchases and cash withdrawals. Plus, they say you don't need to worry about monthly fees or maintenance fees. You can work on your financial goals through Chime today. You can open an account in two minutes at Chime.com slash explained.
--:-- Eric Levitt: That's chime.com slash explained. Chime feels like progress. Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services and debit card provided by the Bancorp Bank N.A. or Stride Bank N.A. Members FDIC. Spot me eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Timing depends on submission of payment file. Fees apply at out-of-network ATMs. Bank ranking and number of ATMs according to U.S. News and World Report 2023. Chime checking account required.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Let's be honest. Are you happy with your job? Like, really happy? The unfortunate fact is that a huge number of people can't say yes to that. Far too many of us are stuck in a job we've outgrown, or one we never wanted in the first place. But still, we stick it out, and we give reasons like, what if the next move is even worse? I've already put years into this place, and maybe the most common one, isn't everyone kind of miserable at work?
--:-- Eric Levitt: But there's a difference between reasons for staying and excuses for not leaving. It's time to get unstuck. It's time for Strawberry.me. They match you with a certified career coach who helps you go from where you are to where you actually want to be. Your coach helps you get clear on your goals, create a plan, build your confidence, and keeps you accountable along the way.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So don't leave your career to chance. Take action and own your future with a professional coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer. That's strawberry.me slash unstuck.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Support for the show today comes from Life Kit, the podcast from NPR.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What's in your life kit? I'm asking. They didn't ask that. Every day you have to make choices that might shape the direction of your life, but you can't flip to the back of the book to find an answer key. Instead, you can listen to the Life Kit podcast from NPR.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Life Kit offers real stories about common issues like relationships, finances, parenting, and your career. If you're looking to move with more intention or just need thoughtful guidance on living better, Life Kit delivers strategies to help you make meaningful, sustainable change.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: From fitness routines to mental resilience, navigating personal goals to tackling burnout, Each episode is full of relevant insights and clear takeaways about things we all could use a little help with.
--:-- Eric Levitt: LifeKit wants to help you approach your own life with confidence and clarity and walk away with a game plan you can implement right away. Enough from me. Go listen to the show Life Kit. It's a podcast from NPR.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The boys are back in town. The boys are back in town. And so's today explained. Andrew Marantz is a boy who's been hanging out with the boys for The New Yorker. Why, you ask? There's kind of this folk theory of politics, which I think actually has some truth to it, that, like, every election has its own dominant medium.
--:-- Eric Levitt: And, you know, 1960 was the TV election. Good evening. The television and radio stations of the United States and their affiliated stations are proud to provide facilities for... 2016 was the Twitter election. At times, listen, all the people in the places and things that Donald Trump has insulted.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, just on Twitter, this is 282 people since the start of this campaign. So there was kind of this Monday morning quarterback consensus that 2024 was the live stream election or the long form podcast election.
--:-- Eric Levitt: And there was kind of this easy narrative, which was if only there were a Rogan of the left, the Democrats would have pulled it out. And so I sort of wanted to examine how true that was. And as we've covered on this show before, Trump has spent a lot of time in 2024 going on podcasts that, you know, most people in America have never heard of.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Totally. But were probably helpful to his campaign. Definitely. I mean, especially because these were pretty easy interviews, right? I mean, he wasn't really being grilled.
--:-- Eric Levitt: So you're way up with cocaine more than anything else you can think of. Cocaine will turn you into a damn owl, homie. I have two segments I want to do with you. The first one is use one word that comes to mind. Describe that person. OK, it's a fun game. Let's start. All right. Who is the first picture? And we got the Noke Boys. One word. Great.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What they did for those audiences is just expose them to a kind of humanized version of Trump. You've heard about the supervillain, you know, glowering from the Fulton County Jail or whatever. Well, here's the version of Trump that just seems like kind of a chill, approachable dude. And, you know, maybe he's not as bad as all that. And we like the Beach Boys. We always like the Beach Boys. We do like the Beach Boys. Who doesn't like the Beach Boys?
--:-- Eric Levitt: And notably here, on these shows that Trump was hitting, you did not see representation from the other side, from the left. Which kind of brings us back to the piece you recently wrote for The New Yorker called You Mad Bro, although it's also known as the battle for the bros, because you spent some time with a leftist bro.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah. So Hassan Piker is really the only major prominent leftist on Twitch, at least the only one who talks about politics all day. What's going on, everybody? I hope everyone's having a fantastic evening, afternoon, pre-new, no matter where you are in the world. I'm Hassan Piker and this Dawson I'm Bruckner.
--:-- Eric Levitt: So a lot of the sort of, you know, speculation about could there be a Rogan of the left, you know, a lot of that was focused on him. He's have to have to just say it outright. Very, very handsome, tall drink of water. He's, you know, that's a big part of the brand.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Can I say something? I'm I'm feeling objectified. Oh, yeah. He does sort of fitness influencer stuff. He's always going to the gym and, you know, sending around, you know, thirst trap photos. This guy. This week has been a mess. You beat it. Don't act like you don't beat it. This week? Oh, I'm asking for it? What was I wearing?
--:-- Eric Levitt: He, you know, plays video games. He does sort of, you know, traditionally guy-coded stuff. But then he also, like, will, like, wear a pearl necklace and nail polish and, you know, hang out with his gay friends. So he's doing his own thing. But really, when he sits down to start streaming, he's basically talking about politics from a very sort of progressive socialist perspective all day long.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Universal Basic Income, in the way that I advocate for, is a drastic wealth redistribution program. I think that Universal Basic Income... He has four monitors, like a bank of monitors, like he's like a day trader or something. One is just for comments, one is just for his Discord, one is his main screen. And when he's locked in, he's just locked in. Like he, you know, goes to the bathroom for 60 seconds and comes back and keeps going.
--:-- Eric Levitt: He's like in a flow state for 8 to 10 hours a day. When I showed up at his house, you know, we had arranged over text, like, I'll come to your house and I'll hang out with you. This is on a Sunday where he's talking about Syria for hours and hours and hours. The morality of Assad is not complex. Assad is a brutal tyrant and also, you know, a dog statesman in general.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Can't speak for his. And his audience, he had like 35,000 people live in his audience. That's like better than a lot of cable networks, especially for, you know, the coveted youth demographic. And then I come back the next day and that happens to be the day that they caught Luigi Mangione. So that was a banger of a stream.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Normally, as you guys know, this is unlimited Italiophobia in the broadcast. This is the first day where there will be no Italiophobia on this broadcast. We will ban you. Then I came back the next day and his guests were Lena Kahn, the FTC chair, followed by Ta-Nehisi Coates, the famous writer, followed by Stavros Halkius, the famous comedian, back to back to back.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This is like Gen Z Tonight Show kind of thing. Right. And like Lena Kahn, Ta-Nehisi Coates, you'd expect them on like the Ezra Klein show. But maybe saying favorable things about Luigi Mangione is where Hassan Piker sort of, you know, strikes a different chord.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Well, and this is the line he's constantly walking in politics of all kinds, right? He's saying Trump is a monster. You can't vote for him. But he's not then saying, here's why Kamala Harris is so great and you really should vote for her. He's basically saying she's the lesser of two evils, but she's really terrible on Gaza. She's really terrible on this other stuff.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Bro, she's 60. I don't know any 60-year-old American who doesn't prefer Israel to the scary Muslims. Sometimes it's that simple. I mean, I was at the DNC in Chicago and Hassan Piker was this sort of, you know, celebrated, invited guest. The DNC gave him this really prime real estate. And then he said a few too many really edgy things about Gaza.
--:-- Eric Levitt: They're kicking us out. Unlucky. I don't know why. You think it's because you said something today that you like? I did compare DNC to Israel. That might have been the final blow. Because we got the call shortly after I tweeted that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So he's constantly doing this dance, right? Trying to be a critical ally, but not too allied. Trying to be edgy on Twitch without getting kicked off Twitch. He was recently suspended for 24 hours because he talked about maybe killing Rick Scott, a senator.
--:-- Eric Levitt: So it's this constant tightrope act, which, I mean, honestly makes it more exciting to watch. And the audience responds to this because it strikes them as authentic. Totally. I mean, this is his audience goes way back with him. This is where the parasocial thing really comes into play I mean you know not to break the fourth wall too much but people have a parasocial relationship with you They listen to you a lot People have parasocial relationships with Sarah Koenig from listening to her host Serial for 12 hours But like this guy is on audio and video all the time with comments floating up the side of his screen that he reads and responds to constantly.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So however parasocial people feel about you or Ezra Klein or Sarah Koenig, it's like times a thousand on steroids all the time. This is part of the appeal, right? I went to a gym with him in Encino. You walk into the gym, there's Joe Rogan interviewing Elon Musk on the TV above you. But because he's kind of doing this bro-coded thing, he's not like the kind of caricature of the pearl-clutching, you know, progressive where he has to run away because he's like surrounded by Trumpy guys, he can hang.
--:-- Eric Levitt: And the ability to hang is the currency of the realm. Like if you can hang, then you're in and people kind of develop a relationship with you. And then eventually, if you go, actually, I think we should have universal healthcare and like treat trans people well and like not do mass deportations, then maybe they'll listen to you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And in terms of who they are, I mean, I think part of what's interesting about it, and this goes for Rogan and Theo Vaughn and a bunch of guys on the right as well, is that the audience is constantly changing and moldable and impressionable. I mean, people like one thing that that this piece really reinforced for me is like Americans don't just sort of like have set politics. Nobody does. Like it's always shifting. People are always open to persuasion or just kind of shifting their mind on things.
--:-- Eric Levitt: That's what Rogan did. That's what a lot of his audience did. So what a lot of Hassan Piker's job is, I think, is taking people who are impressionable and kind of molding them in his direction rather than letting them just sort of fall into the open internet where they might, you know, get red-pilled.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And did you ask him what he thought of being called by some as a Joe Rogan of the left? Yeah, he doesn't like it. And his main objection to it is, well, partly he doesn't like it because, you know, it's not cool to be like, oh, please pick me. I would love to be the Joe Rogan of the left, you know.
--:-- Eric Levitt: But also his objection to it is the Democrats want to make this about messaging instead of policy. So, you know, the Democrats want to just say, oh, if we just, you know, have more podcasts and, you know, put more Tic Tac stars on our, you know, campaign ads, you know, that'll solve it. And for someone like Piker, who is a really dedicated, like socialist, he wants them to do more universal programmings, you know, he wants them to go in a Bernie direction instead of a Kamala direction.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so he thinks it's kind of like a shortcut to just do the messaging and not change the policy. It's interesting because he exists in this space where he speaks to the same type of person who might listen to Joe Rogan. I'm sure there are people who listen to both shows.
--:-- Eric Levitt: Oh, for sure. Yeah, there's people all over. And you know, just like Joe Rogan used to be on the left, Hassan Piker used to be a big Rogan fan. I mean, he told me about the time he met Joe Rogan, like in this kind of rapturous way. And, you know, he also Theo Vaughn, I would say, has kind of reached the number two spot in the Rogan sphere. Hassan Piker was on Theo Vaughn's show like a week and a half ago or something.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, so there's a huge amount of overlap. When you get those crossovers, when Hassan Piker talks to Theo Vaughn, I don't think he's been on Joe Rogan's show, but maybe that's coming. Could we get like a rigorous debate on policy like those Gore Vidal, like William F. Buckley joints from the 1960s?
--:-- Eric Levitt: Shut up a minute. No, I won't. And some people will call Nazi. Kind of, yeah. Hopefully without calling each other queer or whatever. Now listen, you. Stop calling me a crypto Nazi. Let's stop calling names. you in your goddamn face and you'll stay plastered.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think there is some of that, but actually in a way it's less structured than that, right? The kind of classic Buckley-Vidal debate where you're brought in to do like a point counterpoint on CBS News. Yeah. That's kind of given way to more just kind of like organic relationships.
--:-- Eric Levitt: So like the Jimbros that I was talking about, they were streamers also. And Hassan will go on their streams and talk about politics. But it's not in a structured like, okay, what do we think about entitlement reform? What do we think about charter schools? Like, it's much more like, I don't know, dude, like, don't you think this is bullshit? You really think they're going to do what they say? You know, it's much more vibe based.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Where do you think all this is leading? Because it's so clear that Democrats are trying something right now. Gavin Newsom has launched a podcast where he's talking to Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon. You write in your piece that Pete Buttigieg was making overtures to Hassan Piker. Tim Walls came on this show. AOC and Bernie were talking to Hassan recently. The Democrats are doing something. Is it too early to say if any of it's working?
--:-- Eric Levitt: Yeah, they are doing something. So I think the Gavin Newsom show is not the answer. The thing that struck me about the Gavin Newsom show which he started like while I was reporting this it's not even again the content it's the vibe it's like he talks kind of like a McKinsey consultant like not not like a person and whereas Tim Walls I think talks like a person so you know you can talk about policy all day long and I think that we should talk about policy all day long and
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I agree with the Piker critique that policy maybe matters more than messaging in many cases. But I think when you have someone like Tim Walls who doesn't always put words in the right order and doesn't always speak in complete paragraphs, that guy would do great on a three-hour podcast.
--:-- Eric Levitt: And so to me, the whole Monday morning quarterback question is not why didn't Kamala go on Rogan, it's why didn't Tim Walls go on Joe Rogan? Like, that's the whole point of having that guy on your campaign, it seems to me.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I do think they're going to keep trying stuff. And I think they're going to see kind of by market testing it what's working. People are clearly trying to get in position. And I don't think they will make the same exact mistakes again. The question is, are they only fighting the last war? Or are they going to figure out whatever the parasocial media of 2028 is going to be?
--:-- Eric Levitt: Andrew Marantz, he writes for the New Yorker, newyorker.com. Hasan Piker, rumor has it, a listener to this show. Hasan, if you're listening, come hang out. Come talk to us.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Travis Larchuk and Amanda Llewellyn made the show today. Patrick Boyd and Andrea Kristinsdottir mixed the show today. Amina Alsadi edited the show. Laura Bullard fact-checked the show. I'm Sean Rameswaram. I hosted the show. It's called Today Explained. Thank you.
