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--:-- Noel King: The global shipping industry handles about 80% of international trade. 80% of the stuff that you and everyone else buys from overseas gets put on a ship at some point to get to you. So blockages are very serious. You remember the Ever Given, the ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal a few years ago?
--:-- Noel King: Right now, the shipping industry is facing two crises. The first is at the Panama Canal, where a drought is causing such long delays that authorities have started auctioning off spots to jump the line. And the second, of course, is in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels are attacking international commercial ships to protest Israel's offensive in Gaza.
--:-- Noel King: Coming up on Today Explained, the shipping news.
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--:-- Noel King: It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. The global shipping trade is facing two crises right now. The first is at the 50-mile-long man-made canal that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
--:-- Noel King: Mia Dahl is a freelance reporter focusing on, of all things, the Panama Canal. Mia writes for Foreign Policy and leading magazine The Economist, and she says the canal is having problems this year because of weather.
--:-- Mia Dahl: Right now, we're seeing a really severe drought in Panama. There's this weather phenomenon called El Nino that's been particularly strong this past year. And last October, we actually saw that there was 41% less precipitation than usual. And that's only set to get worse as the country right now heads into the dry season.
--:-- Mia Dahl: The Panama Canal Authority has actually had to slash the number of ships allowed through the canal from about 38, 36 ships a day before the crisis started to about half of that expected in February. To make matters worse, each vessel is allowed to carry 40% less weight.
--:-- Mia Dahl: This prompted some ships to unload their cargo and to move it by rail to the other side. The Panama Canal is surrounded on one side by the Pacific Ocean and on the other side by the Caribbean. Why does a drought affect it? Can't they just push water in from the ocean or in from the Gulf?
--:-- Mia Dahl: So yeah, that's basically because of how the canal works. As a cargo boat nears the canal's approach channels from the sea, the tugboats attach a tow line to the cargo ship and move them into alignment with the canal lock's narrow entrance.
--:-- Mia Dahl: They come in from the freshwater side, so the water that provides these locks has to come from the free nearby lakes. And then you need to lift the ships up in an altitude of these 85 feet above sea level water, lifting them up to the sea level and then they can like go out.
--:-- Mia Dahl: It's simply a matter of the mechanics of the canal. Once the cargo ship is firmly within a lock, the lock gate behind it then shuts, while the lock gate ahead gradually opens, displacing water at a steady pace, thus raising the ship so that it can then enter the next lock.
--:-- Mia Dahl: The canal has to use fresh water to transit the ship through. And that water then goes right out into the ocean. So we're actually wasting huge amounts of fresh water to make these operations work.
--:-- Mia Dahl: It takes about 52 million gallons of water for every ship that you transit through the canal. And that's the equivalent to filling about 80 Olympic-sized pools or as much as half a million Panamanians will consume in a day.
--:-- Mia Dahl: The other thing is that, yes, Panama is also like a very rainy, humid country, actually one of the rainiest in the world. So it's lived in an abundance of fresh water and people haven't really been that careful about water as a scarce resource as actually Panamanians use 2.5 times more water than the world average and the most water of any Latin American country.
--:-- Mia Dahl: But right now the situation suddenly looks different and Panamanians are starting to think about water as a more scarce resource.
--:-- Mia Dahl: What kind of ships are going through the Panama Canal? What's being carried through it?
--:-- Mia Dahl: So there's quite a lot of different types of cargo going through the Panama Canal. There's, of course, containers, which is a big part of the traffic through the canal. There's also cruise ships, which have been quite hard hit by this.
--:-- Mia Dahl: The Rhapsody of the Sea is supposed to start making a Panama Canal cruise. They decided they're not going to do that now. They're not going to traverse the Panama Canal at all in 2023, 2024 on the Rhapsody of the Sea.
--:-- Mia Dahl: And then there are some smaller ships as well. And what we see right now is really that this crisis hits the smaller customers much harder because of the way that the Panama Canal is structured.
--:-- Mia Dahl: They have a customer booking system that clearly prioritizes the bigger customers. So if you're the captain of a ship showing up right now at the Panama Canal, what are your options?
--:-- Mia Dahl: The options are a bit more limited right now. Like when you have to go through the Panama Canal, you can either choose to wait in line. But right now that's just become a terrible option.
--:-- Mia Dahl: The other option is then to pay to jump the line, which is something we've seen become much more common now. And recently we actually saw a ship pay 4 million US dollars just to jump the line.
--:-- Mia Dahl: And then the third option is for the ships to reroute. Some ocean carriers had chosen to reroute through the Suez Canal which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea before Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in that region escalated.
--:-- Mia Dahl: If I'm doing my math right, those routes are like thousands of miles out of the way.
--:-- Mia Dahl: How much of the global shipping trade is actually going through the Panama Canal in a good year?
--:-- Mia Dahl: About 5% of seaborne world trade goes through the Panama Canal. And that's the equivalent of almost 300 billion US dollar worth of cargo.
--:-- Mia Dahl: So it's quite a lot in terms of value and volume. And when you look regionally, it's about 40% of US container traffic.
--:-- Mia Dahl: So regionally, it's like a really big bulk of traffic. And just to paint a picture of how this looks, the canal serves more than 180 maritime routes today.
--:-- Mia Dahl: It connects 170 countries and it reaches approximately 2,000 ports all over the world.
--:-- Noel King: I remember the last time we heard a lot about supply chain issues, it was during COVID. And we saw that things were getting more expensive.
--:-- Noel King: It was impossible to buy certain things. Or if you, you know, you bought furniture, it would take six months to get there.
--:-- Noel King: What is this doing to American consumers? Anything yet?
--:-- Mia Dahl: This disruption means like disruption of supply chains. It means longer waiting times for a consumer that in some special cases they might not even get the products that they're waiting for because they're just stuck or rerouting and it takes too long for them to arrive.
--:-- Mia Dahl: And then it might mean, or actually experts say that this is already happening, that it means higher prices for consumers.
--:-- Mia Dahl: JP Morgan warning that consumer price inflation might grow thanks to rising global shipping costs.
--:-- Noel King: Brazilian meat, Chilean wines, and bananas from Ecuador are regularly shipped across the canal.
--:-- Noel King: And by the way, how long can bananas sit there? Think about it. You think bananas can sit there for three weeks? You ever have banana at the kitchen, you leave it there for three weeks? What happens to it?
--:-- Noel King: So this is bad news for shippers. They're having to find new ways around or they're having to wait.
--:-- Noel King: This is bad news for consumers, including American consumers, because things are more expensive.
--:-- Noel King: What does this mean, though, for Panama?
--:-- Noel King: I talked to Raisa Banfield, who's a former vice mayor of Panama City and who's now heading an environmental organization called Sustainable Panama.
--:-- Raisa Banfield: And she described how she was sometimes looking out the window from her apartment in Panama City and just seeing the ships waiting in line and what that meant to her.
--:-- Raisa Banfield: Because the Panama Canal is really like a national pride. And when it's not working, it hits the country really hard.
--:-- Raisa Banfield: For Panama, this is really a cornerstone of their economy.
--:-- Raisa Banfield: In 2022, it generated 4.32 billion US dollars in revenue.
--:-- Raisa Banfield: And when this canal is disrupted, it creates huge uncertainty for the country.
--:-- Noel King: Is anybody in the Panamanian government talking about how to, in the event of a drought like we have now, how to just increase the amount of water going in?
--:-- Noel King: Are there any clever ideas?
--:-- Mia Dahl: I think the most viable option that everyone is talking about is the damming up of the Indio River, a nearby river.
--:-- Mia Dahl: That would basically mean damming up the river, drilling tunnels through a nearby mountain to then provide more water into the Lake Gatun, which is the main reserve providing water to the Panama Canal.
--:-- Mia Dahl: But there's also some issues around this.
--:-- Mia Dahl: We're heading into general elections this spring in Panama, and probably this kind of new project of damming up the Indio River could be rather unpopular amongst the communities that it will affect, because it means basically flooding huge areas of biodiverse jungle.
--:-- Mia Dahl: It means that some communities will be displaced.
--:-- Noel King: This has been a shipping route for generations. If it can be disrupted by climate change, if it can be disrupted by El Nino as it has been, what is the future of the Panama Canal here?
--:-- Mia Dahl: The climate change experts that I've talked to all agree that these kind of weather phenomena, extreme weather events like the kind of drought that we've seen this past year, are likely to become only more frequent and more severe.
--:-- Mia Dahl: So the Panama Canal will need to resolve its water problem.
--:-- Noel King: And there's some solutions on the table for that, but they might not just be as fast or as easy as the country or everyone else would hope for.
--:-- Noel King: But I think there's no doubt that the Panama Canal will remain the most important shipping route in the region for any foreseeable future.
--:-- Mia Dahl: Mia Dahl, she's a freelance reporter covering the Panama Canal.
--:-- Noel King: So between conflict and climate change, we are looking at some of the most expensive traffic jams in the world.
--:-- Noel King: However, as we're going to learn coming up, warm weather is also creating an opening.
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--:-- Noel King: This is Today Explained. Go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Hi, my name is Sherat Gennepathy. I'm an assistant professor of international economics at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so in 2024, many of us who are alive and conscious are very familiar with the idea that supply chains are important.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And if they end up tangled, we see higher prices. We have more trouble getting things.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: First, there was COVID-19. Then there was the Ever Given, that big ship that blocked the Suez Canal. You actually joined us on the show.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Then there are attacks on container ships in the Red Sea. And now we hear there's a drought and it's affecting the Panama Canal.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Is this like, you're giggling, is this like a particularly bad time for global shipping?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: To crib from Dickens, it was the best of times was the worst of times.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Shippers have both seen this as an opportunity as well as an existential threat.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: For some shippers, these demand spikes have been incredibly great for profits. They've jacked up shipping rates and companies are able to profit.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But at the same time, we've got this new normal where you just keep these persistent shocks and that could affect long run demand and create costs for both the shippers and us, the consumers.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: What are the biggest threats to global shipping at the moment?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: I put it kind of twofold. One threat is the geopolitics of the world.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Things are changing. Friendships are being realigned. And that's causing kind of differences all over the world.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: We see some of this in kind of the attacks in the Red Sea.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But the second threat is a little different. It's a longer run, more existential threat of climate change, which is going to reconfigure how the world looks and also reconfigure where ships can go.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Who and where is being most affected by the chaos in the Red Sea?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: That's really affecting one big trade route, and that's the connection between East Asia and Europe.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: So where you want to look at is consumer goods in Europe.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Basically, these are consumer goods coming from China to Europe.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: You're going to see delays on them potentially, but you can also see small price increases.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Now, how big are those price increases? That's unclear.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: We saw during the Ever Given, it resolved itself relatively quickly. Its question is how long is this going to last and will it resolve itself in the near future?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Are there other shipping routes in the world at present that are also threatened by conflicts that maybe are not as high profile?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Well, there's something that may become high profile in the near future.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And again, I'm not a political scientist, so I'm not going to specify, you know, is this going to happen today or tomorrow?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But the South China Sea is a particularly hot flashpoint.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Our ship weaves its way through. But from afar, we see a Chinese Coast Guard vessel blasting water cannon onto a Philippine supply boat.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But confrontations like this have become the norm.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: The South China Sea really connects kind of all our Asian kind of new emerging superpowers.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: You've got Taiwan, you've got China, you've got Vietnam, you've got Malaysia, you've got the Philippines.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And right now there's lots and lots of trade and things such as electronic components, toy components, all these intermediate goods that get packaged together creating these value chains that produce our consumer goods in the West today.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And we've seen, especially recently, there's been much more national sentiment by some of these countries defending and or constructing even naval bases in this area.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: The Philippines has identified the four new military bases that it will be giving U.S. troops access to.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: At least one of them will face the South China Sea, paving the way for a greater American presence in key locations in the region.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Will this become a flashpoint? I don't know.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But right now, a large amount of world trade flows through the South China Sea.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And this could become another potential way where we may shut down trade.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: All right. So we've got conflict on one hand and we've got climate change on the other.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Are there other parts of the world? Are there other shipping routes that are threatened by climate change?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: There's not just threatened by climate change, but there might be new routes open by climate change.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And this is something that has been long speculated.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: If you go back to your AP U.S. history class, you'll remember the fabled Northwest Passage.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Oh, yeah. There's also the Northeast Passage.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: One connects the North Atlantic Sea with kind of the North Pacific.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: One goes through Canada and the other past Russia.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: We are going through the fabled Northwest Passage. More people have been in space and successfully transit the Northwest Passage by sailing boats.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Historically, these routes are not traveled frequently because they're covered by ice.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Now climate change is making the Arctic recede extremely quickly.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: There already trials runs of commercial shipping taking these routes.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: The Northeast Passes past Russia will effectively reduce the time from Yokohama Bay in Tokyo to Rotterdam by about 30 percent.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: That's a huge savings.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And you find similar routes from the west coast of the U.S. to Europe being reduced.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: China is also very interested in developing the Arctic region for shipping, pledging to build a, quote, polar silk road over a five-year plan from 2021 to 2025.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: There could be this complete reconfiguring of the globe to connect kind of the West with the East in some sense, where there's a lot of speculation when this is happening.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And these routes are also susceptible to geopolitics.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Russia, China and the United States are leading the charge to take control of the immense natural resources and new trade routes that are opening up, even as a potential climate catastrophe takes hold.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: So it's unclear whether, you know, these are going to be substitutes or complements, but the world is reconfiguring and the melting of these ice caps is doing quite a bit of a change in some of these routes.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: I want to be on the record here saying that I think climate change is bad.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: However, the idea that like a whole new shipping route could open up, that we've never had major transit through before, there is something incredible about that, even as climate change is creating chaos for our old roots.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Yeah. And I like to emphasize, you know, this I'm not saying that climate change is good, but I'm trying to say it's it's changing kind of the face of the globe.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Literally. I mean, we're seeing things that are covered in, you know, 20 feet of ice now being open seas where you can potentially see large container ships plying their wares.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Literally what explorers in 1450 thought might actually now become reality in some sense.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: It is interesting and it's very clear that both firms and countries are actively planning for this new future.
--:-- Noel King: All of this, all of this insecurity in shipping makes me wonder whether or not some of the newer technologies and ways of moving things that we have, like roads and planes, large trucks.
--:-- Noel King: Do we really need to save shipping if we've got our trains and planes and automobiles?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: I don't know if you remember, there was that volcano explosion in Iceland, and I cannot pronounce the name of that volcano for the life of me.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Six levels, Aja Fjallajoghurt. That shut down air freight through Western Europe for a good month.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: This is the plume from the air, a massive cloud of ash following the winds and weather patterns right across the Atlantic, the same route the planes fly.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: So it's, you know, we've got these technologies. Trucks are, have this one downside, which is right now trucks cannot really scale to the level of global trade flows.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: A truck has a driver and the driver really can't drive more than one or two containers at a time.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: So they're really, really limited. Our roads are congested and they're limited.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Now, trains, trains are great. Trains are kind of how the U.S., you know, what did manifest destiny. It's kind of how China is modernizing.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But freight railroads are not that big really outside of the United States.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: It's actually quite remarkable how important freight railroads are to the U.S., but are not really used that frequently, for example, in parts of Europe.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: So it's not clear they can scale because many countries have prioritized passengers over freight on the rails.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And then finally, air freight and truck shipping is incredibly expensive.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Putting stuff on a ship and shipping it around the world is dirt cheap.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: And we just simply have no substitute for that cheap shipping cost.
--:-- Noel King: Do you think it's time for like an infrastructure Renaissance?
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: Everything's kind of breaking down, you know, and except for that beautiful Northwest Passage.
--:-- Sherat Gennepathy: But it sort of seems like, OK, everything's old now. We should just spit shine all of it.
--:-- Noel King: Yeah. So, I mean, I live on the East Coast of the United States.
--:-- Noel King: I regularly ride rail tracks that are 100 years old using signaling that's falling apart.
--:-- Noel King: And, you know, just on a daily basis, the train I ride from, let's say, D.C. to New York isn't that much faster than the same train in the Roosevelt administration seven years ago.
--:-- Noel King: So a lot of our infrastructure, our roads, our railroads, our harbors around the world is maybe older.
--:-- Noel King: Some of it is also built for a world without climate change.
--:-- Noel King: So it's susceptible to flooding, sea level rise, or it's built for a world where global conflict was not supposed to take the current form.
--:-- Noel King: But shipping and global value chains are incredibly important.
--:-- Noel King: And while there might be some backtracking, it's not as if we're going to completely go back to a world where everyone makes everything at home.
--:-- Noel King: And so this gives us incredible opportunities to build potential new infrastructure, new roads, new harbors to be both climate and conflict resilient.
--:-- Noel King: Sharat Ganapati International Economics Georgetown School of Foreign Service.
--:-- Noel King: Today's episode was produced by Jesse Alejandro Cottrell and Haleema Shah.
--:-- Noel King: Matthew Collette edited, Laura Bullard fact-checked, and Patrick Boyd engineered.
--:-- Noel King: The rest of our team includes Amanda Llewellyn, Hadi Muagdi, Avishai Artsy, Victoria Chamberlain, Miles Bryan, Rob Byers, executive producer Miranda Kennedy, supervising editor Amina El-Sadi, and our man in Argentina, Sean Ramos-Furam.
--:-- Noel King: We use music by Breakmaster Cylinder and Noam Hassenfeld, and we're distributed to public radio stations across these United States in partnership with WNYC in New York.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network, and I'm Noelle King.