--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Noel King: Every fall, the FBI releases data on crime. What's happening, where it's happening, how often it's happening. They have data, they have it monthly, they have it annually, they have it going back to 1930. And for nerds that look at crime data like me, it's, I hate to call it the Super Bowl of crime data.
--:-- Jeff Asher: [laughs] That's a great way to put it.
--:-- Noel King: Baked into that data is another number, the solve rate, which is exactly what it sounds like. It tells us how well the police are doing their jobs. This year, when the data dropped, analysts noticed something troubling and puzzling about the solve rate. It's fallen since 2019.
--:-- Jeff Asher: That's right. And it wasn't just murder that was having a decline in clearance rates, but it was really across the board to some of the lowest levels ever reported for every crime.
--:-- [Supporter ad plays]
--:-- Noel King: Support for this show comes from ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into, don't you know? That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform.
--:-- Jeff Asher: [laughs] That's right.
--:-- Noel King: While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows, and AI, connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters most.
--:-- Jeff Asher: I've never met an AI agent.
--:-- Noel King: Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people at servicenow.com. AI agents are getting pretty impressive. You might not even realize you're listening to one right now.
--:-- Jeff Asher: We work 24-7 to resolve customer inquiries. No hold music, no canned answers, no frustration. Visit sierra.ai to learn more.
--:-- Noel King: This is Today Explained. Jeff Asher is a data analyst in New Orleans. Jeff's specialty is criminal justice agencies.
--:-- Jeff Asher: And every autumn, he looks forward to getting his mitts on the uniform crime report that the FBI releases.
--:-- Noel King: Within that report, as we said, there are numbers about the solve rate. More or less, it means percentage of cases solved.
--:-- Jeff Asher: So if your agency solves a murder from last year or from 1972, that's counted as a this year clearance. In the numerator, the denominator is just the number of murders that happened this year or the number of robberies that happened this year.
--:-- Noel King: So there's some weirdness, but it more or less is the percentage of crimes that are solved in a given year.
--:-- Jeff Asher: And the data shows that the solve rate is at one of its lowest ever levels?
--:-- Noel King: That's correct. And you kind of have to divide the data into the sort of unbelievable 1960s and 1970s and the last 30 years or so.
--:-- Jeff Asher: So in the 60s and 70s, agencies tended to report implausibly high levels of clearance rates. So frequently you'd have 90, 95, 100 percent of murders from an agency that's reporting 100 murders solved every year.
--:-- Noel King: So many.
--:-- Jeff Asher: And it's kind of not certain why that is, but the best guesses are basically that pre-Miranda arrest standards were really low.
--:-- Noel King: Do you even know the Miranda rights?
--:-- Jeff Asher: You have the right to remain silent.
--:-- Noel King: Very good. You have the right to remain silent. Now what else?
--:-- Jeff Asher: Anything I say may be used against me in a court of law.
--:-- Noel King: That's true.
--:-- Jeff Asher: You're doing great.
--:-- Noel King: You have the right to an attorney.
--:-- Jeff Asher: Got it.
--:-- Noel King: Got really high robbery and auto theft and all these crimes that now are being solved much less frequently were being reported at much higher levels of clearances. Decades ago.
--:-- Jeff Asher: So things kind of, they came down in the 70s and the 80s, and they kind of hit a plateau.
--:-- Noel King: And generally, clearance rates in the 90s, 2000s, and 2010s have been stable.
--:-- Jeff Asher: The violent crime clearance rate throughout the mid-90s was around 45%, and in 2019, it was 45%.
--:-- Noel King: So we've seen, you know, every year it goes up or it goes down, and there's certainly fluctuation.
--:-- Jeff Asher: But it's something that for the last few decades has generally been relatively stable.
--:-- Noel King: Generally been relatively stable.
--:-- Jeff Asher: And if it were generally relatively stable until 2023, I don't think we'd be talking to you.
--:-- [Supporter ad plays]
--:-- Noel King: Support for this show comes from Built Rewards. These days, it seems like everybody has a rewards program. You swipe your card and you get one cent on the hundred dollars.
--:-- Jeff Asher: [laughs]
--:-- Noel King: But with your rent, frequently, you just pay month after month. You never get anything from it other than that roof over your head. Not anymore, says Built Rewards.
--:-- Jeff Asher: [laughs]
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--:-- Jeff Asher: Your home isn't just where you sleep. It's your community.
--:-- Noel King: And Bilt wants you to go out and do things in the community. You can eat at your favorite local restaurants, then earn more points.
--:-- Jeff Asher: You can get VIP treatment at certain fitness studios.
--:-- Noel King: You can enjoy exclusive experiences just for Bilt members every month.
--:-- Jeff Asher: When you're ready to travel, they say Bilt points can be converted to miles or hotel points all around the world.
--:-- Noel King: You can earn points on rent and around your neighborhood wherever you call home by joining Bilt.com slash Explained.
--:-- Jeff Asher: That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T dot com slash Explained.
--:-- [Supporter ad plays]
--:-- Noel King: Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say.
--:-- Jeff Asher: [laughs]
--:-- Noel King: So we're free to report the whole picture. We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe, expose corruption wherever we find it, and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate, and more.
--:-- Jeff Asher: Read, watch, and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
--:-- [Supporter ad plays]
--:-- Noel King: Support for Today Explained comes from Upwork. If you run a business, you know that scaling your business requires the right expertise at the right time.
--:-- Jeff Asher: [laughs]
--:-- Noel King: I sometimes wonder how many of you are running businesses out there. I would love to know. Please email me, noelle at king dot com.
--:-- Jeff Asher: With Upwork, you can find specialized freelancers in IT, web development, AI, design, admin support, marketing, and more.
--:-- Noel King: Experts who they say are ready to help you take your business to the next level.
--:-- Jeff Asher: With more than two decades of experience, Upwork has a simple and ambitious goal to pioneer a better way of working.
--:-- Noel King: Companies at every stage turn to Upwork to get things done and find more flexibility in the way they staff key projects and initiatives by accessing a global marketplace full of top talent.
--:-- Jeff Asher: Plus, Upwork makes posting your job easy with no cost to join.
--:-- Noel King: You can register, browse, freelance, or profiles, get help drafting a job post, or even book a consultation.
--:-- Jeff Asher: You can visit Upwork.com right now and post your job for free.
--:-- Noel King: That is Upwork.com to post your job for free and connect with top towns ready to help your business grow.
--:-- Jeff Asher: That's U-P-W-O-R-K.com, Upwork.com.
--:-- [Theme music starts]
--:-- Noel King: What are your prime directives? Serve the public trust. Protect the innocent. Uphold.
--:-- Jeff Asher: My name is Edgardo Garcia, although I go by Eddie Garcia.
--:-- Noel King: I'm the police chief of the Dallas Police Department.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: All right, Chief Garcia, we're chatting today because of an annual FBI report that comes out in the fall.
--:-- Noel King: One of the data points in that report has to do with the solve rates for violent crimes.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And this year, what the data suggests is that that solve rate fell from about 46 percent to about 36.7 percent since 2019, meaning fewer violent crimes are being solved.
--:-- Noel King: What do you think is happening here? What do you think is causing this drop?
--:-- Eddie Garcia: One thing that we have to say that, you know, solve a violent crime is not easy. I mean, it's not an easy task.
--:-- Noel King: And as departments face staffing shortages, the number one responsibility of any police department is to answer the 911 call for service.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I know that there are other chiefs, as am I, that are very reticent to move bodies out of patrol, as that's the number one priority of any department.
--:-- Noel King: And so you have amazing detectives doing an amazing job that are working a lot, that they're overworked in some areas.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: As departments face, obviously with the backdrop of staffing, we always look at patrol. There's no question about it.
--:-- Noel King: But, you know, most of us also have a lot of holes to fill in our detective bureaus.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And so that that is one of the major issues, I believe, that that if some agencies are seeing drops in their solve rates, I believe we could start there.
--:-- Noel King: Why do you think you're having staffing problems, personnel shortages?
--:-- Eddie Garcia: What is often not talked about is really in these last few years, beginning in 2020, honorable police officers have not felt supported.
--:-- Noel King: Supported.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: We have this constant vilification of the profession. People are constantly being told that police are the problem. Police are dangerous.
--:-- Noel King: They haven't felt supported by, at times, their community.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: The law enforcement should be held at a higher accountability than a normal person because you're there to uphold the law.
--:-- Noel King: They haven't felt supported by their administration at times, and they haven't felt supported by their city governments, oftentimes.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I think I just kind of fell out of love with the job.
--:-- Noel King: I was working 12 plus hour days. The days off canceling and shift changes kind of seemed to become the new norm.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: There's probably not another profession of honorable men and women.
--:-- Noel King: And I say honorable because I'm not going to sit here and tell you that every police officer deserves to wear this uniform. They do not.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: But most of our men and women that are working in this profession are honorable men and women.
--:-- Noel King: And I don't care what field you go into, if you feel unsupported, if people don't honor the work that you do and sacrificing your life every day...
--:-- Eddie Garcia: ...um, you know, I don't know if there are many other professions that have had a defund movement.
--:-- Noel King: That going to have an impact on honorable men and women joining any profession, much less law enforcement.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: That's important.
--:-- Noel King: What do you hear specifically from officers?
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I started 32 years ago. And I'll tell you what, being a police officer 32 years ago is different than it is today.
--:-- Noel King: There's a lot more on officers' plates.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: Quite frankly, officers are asked to do too much to deal with a lot of the social ills that are impacting crime.
--:-- Noel King: And officers want to get compensated fairly.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: They feel they're overworked oftentimes.
--:-- Noel King: But one of the disconnects that I really believe is occurring now, and I say this because I'm not a stay in the office chief.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And so a lot of this division is not being driven by neighborhoods.
--:-- Noel King: There's not a neighborhood in the city of Dallas, and I can speak for my other colleagues as well, regardless of language, spoken, racial makeup or economic status that I have ever heard the words.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: We want to see less of you.
--:-- Noel King: It never happens.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And in fact, oftentimes it's our communities of color that plead with me for more officers.
--:-- Noel King: I have invited people to come to community meetings with me where they will hear my community let me have it if they're not seeing patrol officers and presence in their neighborhood.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And oftentimes it's our most vulnerable communities.
--:-- Noel King: And it's not often, but sometimes they'll accuse police departments of providing more police services to other more affluent areas than the areas of need.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And so there's a real big disconnect.
--:-- Noel King: And I think people need to get out of their offices and go into neighborhood meetings with police chiefs to hear the same information that I hear at every community meeting that I go to.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I think the reason that FBI data struck a chord, Chief Garcia, is that there is a sense in this country, in parts of this country, that police have stopped doing their jobs.
--:-- Noel King: Even if you understand why, you kind of feel like the police are doing less.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: Now, if morale is low, that certainly can happen.
--:-- Noel King: Do you think there's any truth to the sentiment that police are pulling back because they feel overworked.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: They feel disrespected.
--:-- Noel King: And they feel like doing this job is just going to get you in trouble.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I mean, what are you hearing?
--:-- Noel King: You hit the nail on the head. That is absolutely an issue.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: They want to ensure that when chaos ensues that they're going to be judged fairly.
--:-- Noel King: And one of the dynamics, if the pendulum swings too far, oftentimes officers will feel, is this worth it?
--:-- Eddie Garcia: Listen, I'll tell you this proactive policing is absolutely necessary.
--:-- Noel King: I can make an officer answer a 911 call for service that I can do, but I can't make officers be proactive.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And the only reason honorable men and women will be proactive is if they feel supported.
--:-- Noel King: So when officers don't feel supported, when they don't have morale, what it causes oftentimes is a community to go to their corner, the police go to their corner, and yet there's no one in the middle keeping us safe.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And those are things that not just come from my officers or other people that I've spoken to, but that comes from community members themselves.
--:-- Noel King: And so certainly that exists.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: You know, we have a crime plan here in the city of Dallas.
--:-- Noel King: And I often say, as I go around the country and I talk to individuals about what we're trying to do different in Dallas with a crime plan, the first thing that I say to people is please do not screw up a perfectly good crime plan if you don't have your finger on the pulse.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: If your men and women don't feel supported, if they don't feel they're going to be treated fairly once chaos ensues, there's no crime plan that's going to work.
--:-- Noel King: So your point is 100 percent valid.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And that's something that we need to work hard on.
--:-- Noel King: It takes strong leadership. It takes strong support from city government.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I have a very supportive city council, which absolutely is necessary.
--:-- Noel King: I have an incredibly supportive city manager.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And quite frankly, I have arguably the most supportive mayor of public safety I think there is in the country, quite frankly.
--:-- Noel King: And it starts with that. It starts with great community trust and great community understanding.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: We have to build the department. We can't lose sight of the fact that we need to grow.
--:-- Noel King: Nothing will ever amount to having a human being sitting in a desk, sitting in a patrol car, offering that and provide that service.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: So we need to grow and solve rates will then increase by that.
--:-- Noel King: And to your point, 90 to 100% on all is definitely something we should strive for, not necessarily realistic.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: There's several reasons communities don't speak to us. One of the reasons is lack of accountability in the system and keeping criminals and violent criminals in custody.
--:-- Noel King: We have witnesses in the city of Dallas that fear for their lives when they come forward, only to see the individual that they came forward to be a witness against, to see them back on the street does not lend to credibility in the system.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: And it certainly doesn't make them feel safe when they come forward.
--:-- Noel King: So we have that to worry about, which is a humongous issue.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: We need accountability. And that's hugely important.
--:-- Noel King: That trust the community has in its police department will have people come forward to speak to us about what's occurring because we can't solve these crimes alone.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: Oftentimes, you know, the community is not a monolith.
--:-- Noel King: Obviously, we have to get better as professionals.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: There's no question about it.
--:-- Noel King: But in my experience of nearly 32 years and now going into the new year, I'll be in my ninth year as a police chief, whether in California or here in Dallas.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: Our communities have never and still do not want us to go away.
--:-- Noel King: Today's episode was produced by Hady Mawajdeh and edited by Matt Collette.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: Laura Bullard is our fact checker and David Herman is our engineer.
--:-- Noel King: Special thanks to Chief Art Acevedo of the Aurora, Colorado Police Department for his insights, and to Brian Higgins at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
--:-- Eddie Garcia: I'm Noelle King.
--:-- Noel King: It's Today Explained. Thank you.
--:-- [Theme music fades out]
