--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Just under six years ago, then-President Donald Trump hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a big old rally in Houston.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Prime Minister Modi and I have come to Houston to celebrate everything that unites America and India.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Maybe the most memorable thing about the event, at least for me personally, was the two world leaders holding hands as they walked the rally floor.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Look at those hands. Are they small hands?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Fast forward six years, Trump's back in charge here, and Modi's still in charge there, but the bromance is on the rocks.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Modi is hanging out with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin this week.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And no, say it ain't so. He's holding hands with... Vladimir!
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Holding hands at one point, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi were.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Is the president of the United States going to be OK?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: On Today Explained from Vox, and that world-class entertainment closer to the experience of a lifetime.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Tumsun Rahi Ho Aj Vyakyaki.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You're listening to Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Sadhanan Dahomey is a fellow, specifically a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: We started with why it matters that the United States and India get along in the first place.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: I mean, well, it matters for a few reasons.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The first is that maintaining a good relationship with India has been a central part of American strategy in the Indo-Pacific for at least 25 years.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And the reasons for that are obvious.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: India is the most populous nation in the world.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: It is currently the world's fifth largest economy.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: It's predicted to be the third largest economy at market exchange rates by 2028.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: It has the world's second largest military.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And it has a large and disputed boundary with China.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So for all those reasons, it's also democratic.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Biggest democracy in the world.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Correct.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And so for all those reasons, the U.S. has worked hard, particularly over the last 25 years, to have India lean towards the U.S. rather than lean towards China.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And I think the U.S. strategy has been quite successful.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But now, of course, it's all up in the air.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And before we talk about how it all ended up in the air, let's talk about how good it used to be, even between the two leaders who are now breaking up.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So Trump and Modi had quite a bromance in the first Trump administration.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: You know, to start with, I think both of them, you know, many people saw them as having striking commonalities.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Both are populists.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Both were disliked by and dislike their traditional elites and their traditional mainstream media.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has never really given a press conference to Indian media.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And there was CNN, there was the New York Times, and they're both disgusting, disgusting, really horrible groups of people.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Both had a habit of appealing directly to the masses in an unmediated way.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And we are going to make America great again.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And so in some ways, they were, you know, they were similar characters.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And Modi really went out of his way to move Trump.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: He and Trump held this rally together in Texas called the Howdy Modi rally.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: India has a true friend in White House.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Is that where they held hands?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: They held hands at that one, right?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: They've held hands in more than one place.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But yeah, that's the one where Modi grabbed Trump by the hand and took him on a tour of the stadium.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: and then Modi invited Trump to Ahmedabad, which is in Gujarat, which is Modi's home state.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And there in this giant cricket stadium, they had another rally called Namaste Trump to welcome Trump to India.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The life of Prime Minister Modi underscores the limitless promise of this great nation.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: He started out by his father's side as a chiwala, I believe there were something like 100,000 people at that rally.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And then before the 2020 election, Modi all but endorsed Trump, which is very unusual for a foreign leader, certainly for an Indian leader to do.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And obviously Trump lost, but the Biden folks were very gracious about it and they kind of ignored it and pretended it didn't happen.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Nice.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And then when Trump was re-elected, Modi was one of the first foreign leaders to visit.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: He visited the White House in February, and he said that... MAGA plus MEGA which is make India great again equals MEGA
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And so you know the bromance seemed to be going really well
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And now suddenly it's not.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Tell us how that happened.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: What caused the breakup, if it is indeed that?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: A couple of things happened.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: I think the first is that in February, when Modi visited, there was an announcement that the U.S. and India were working towards a trade deal.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And that they wanted to more than double trade to $500 billion.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And so the Indians thought that they had a bit of an inside track in terms of getting a trade deal.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: We're very close to a deal with India where they open it up.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Reports back here in India suggest the Modi government is keen on securing a trade deal, but will keep national interest as priority.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: That obviously has not happened.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Is the deal with India finalized?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: No, it's not.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The second thing, and I think this is the more important thing that went wrong, was that there was a brief military conflict between India and Pakistan in May.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: These are two nuclear powers, and there are many people concerned that they will go to war.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Perhaps you do end up in a world where the idea of throwing punches between nuclear-armed neighbors and nuclear-armed adversaries is no longer as unthinkable.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And at the end of the four days, before Modi could say anything or announce anything to his own people or to his own country, Trump suddenly put out a truth on Truth Social, announcing a ceasefire and taking credit for it.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Truth Social.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So there was an embarrassment for Modi.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: India insists that it was their decision decided between them and Pakistan.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The Pakistanis, who can't believe their good fortune, have stepped up by nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Thank you very much.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: This I didn't know.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And so as a result of all of this, Trump appears to be quite miffed with India and quite pleased with Pakistan.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The Indians are miffed with Trump.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And now it's all become much more complicated because Trump has not only applied 25% regular, what they call reciprocal sanctions in the lingo of this administration, but he's also slapped on an additional 25%, which he in fact refers to as sanctions, in retaliation supposedly for the fact that India buys lots of oil from Russia.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Then it really is going to hurt the Indian economy.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So, you know, so that's really how the bromance has melted down.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: I have to ask, hearing your timeline, is India in a trade war with the United States right now because essentially they impeded Trump's efforts to get a Nobel Peace Prize?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: That is at least partly, and in my view, a large part of the explanation, yes.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Wow.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Wow, if true.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: I made this point in a Wall Street Journal column where I said that, look, there's still room for a grand bargain.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But on a more serious note, if they are not able to come to an agreement, and if this continues, I do think public opinion in India is in danger of turning against the U.S. in a way that it really hasn't for a long time.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And is that bad for India, too?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Oh, for sure.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: I mean, put yourself in India's shoes, right?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: They have this enormous neighbor, China.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: They have a disputed border.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The Chinese lay claims to chunks of territory that the Indians regard as India.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And vice versa.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And so this means that India faces China, which is technologically more advanced, which has an economy about five times larger than India's.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: There was a border clash in 2020 in which 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But essentially, India is moving to mend relations with China, but it recognizes that fundamentally, it has a very deep problem with China that stretches back decades.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But they did just have a splashy little summit.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: All together in Beijing, President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for a security summit with Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Modi laughing and holding hands.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: It is also saying that the era of one or two countries calling all the shots should end and must end.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Instead of great powers issuing ultimatums, China wants dialogue over division, cooperation over zero-sum games.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: Is India and Modi now trying to signal that things could be on the mend with China in light of what's going on with the United States?
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So Sean, my view is that Modi, this was Modi's first visit to China in seven years, by the way, because, you know, after that border clash in 2020, visits basically were put on ice.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So it's a big deal that Modi went to China for the first time in seven years.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But my view is that he would probably have attended the summit either way.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: The SCO or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, this is an organization in which both China, Russia are members, so is India.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And India normally does attend these summits.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But what is different and what I think is fair to attribute to Trump's actions is just the very purposeful way in which Modi went around tweeting his photos with Putin and Xi.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: And just, I mean, India played it up far more.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: So I would say to sum up that India was in any case trying to mend its relationship with China.
--:-- Sadhanan Dahomey: But what Trump has done is really made that a much more urgent priority for the Indians than it was before he started this tariff war.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Sadanan Dahoumay, he's a columnist at The Wall Street Journal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We're heading to the Anti-America Summit when we're back on Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You are listening to Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We've got Josh Keating here.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He covers the world and foreign policy as a senior correspondent here at Vox.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Josh, we spoke a little bit about this summit in the first half of the show, but we wanted to sit you down to speak a little bit more about it.
--:-- Josh Keating: Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi.
--:-- Josh Keating: Was this like an anti-American summit?
--:-- Josh Keating: Was that the theme?
--:-- Josh Keating: I mean, it might seem that way.
--:-- Josh Keating: And, you know, the speech that Xi Jinping gave earlier this week definitely had a lot of not-so-veiled references to overturning the American-led order.
--:-- Josh Keating: We should advocate for an equal and orderly, multipolar world and a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization and make the global governance system more just and equitable.
--:-- Josh Keating: A lot of talk about hegemony and bullying on the world stage, and it's pretty clear who he's talking about when he said that.
--:-- Josh Keating: China needs us much more than we need them.
--:-- Josh Keating: There are two parts here.
--:-- Josh Keating: I mean, there's a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is this kind of loose Chinese-led economic and security grouping.
--:-- Josh Keating: We steadily promoted law enforcement and security cooperation, properly managed and settled differences, unequivocally opposed external interference, and maintained peace and stability in the region.
--:-- Josh Keating: And then there's a big parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II that also doubles as a kind of trade show for China to show off its most advanced military hardware and weaponry.
--:-- Josh Keating: This was the largest military parade that China has ever held.
--:-- Josh Keating: We're seeing hypersonic missiles, nuclear missiles, stealth fighters, drones.
--:-- Josh Keating: The list goes on.
--:-- Josh Keating: So in both senses, this is kind of a message aimed at Washington.
--:-- Josh Keating: Looking at the coverage of this event, it felt like a photo op.
--:-- Josh Keating: I guess a lot of these kinds of summits often feel like photo ops.
--:-- Josh Keating: But you're saying that there was like a deeper purpose and even a pitch being made to the developing world.
--:-- Josh Keating: I think so.
--:-- Josh Keating: I think that if you look at the remarks Xi made, you know, he was against protectionism.
--:-- Josh Keating: So I think there's a message to countries that China, this rising power, is giving a message of stability, is giving a message like we're not going to interfere with you.
--:-- Josh Keating: You can count on us.
--:-- Josh Keating: It's not every four years, this country's policy is going to radically change.
--:-- Josh Keating: It's not we're going to slap these punitive tariffs on you unless you do what we say.
--:-- Josh Keating: So I think that's definitely the pitch they're making, that they're a sort of more reliable, responsible actor on the world stage than that other superpower that will not be named.
--:-- Josh Keating: The one that India is kind of in a fight with, the one that Russia is kind of in a fight with, the one that China is kind of in a fight with.
--:-- Josh Keating: Yeah, well, I mean, it makes sense that India is the country people are focusing on the most.
--:-- Josh Keating: I mean, India and China have had a pretty fraught relationship themselves over the last few years.
--:-- Josh Keating: And India has really been very concerned about becoming too economically dependent on China, about China's information influence.
--:-- Josh Keating: Like people don't remember India banned TikTok years before that was even like a topic of discussion in the U.S.
--:-- Josh Keating: And, you know, the U.S. has spent years, you know, to a large extent, under the first Trump administration when relations were better.
--:-- Josh Keating: I look forward to working with you, Mr. Prime Minister, to create jobs in our countries, to grow our economies and to create a trading relationship that is fair and reciprocal.
--:-- Josh Keating: And then continuing under Biden, promoting ties with India and deepening ties with India as a means to sort of have a counterweight to China, to have another major economic power in Asia that's in America's orbit that can kind of balance Beijing's growing clout.
--:-- Josh Keating: If the United States and India became closer friends and partners, then the world will be a safer place.
--:-- Josh Keating: And the Biden administration did that in the face of a lot of criticism from the Democratic Party.
--:-- Josh Keating: People were, you know, upset with the human rights record of Modi's India and all that work that's been done over those two administrations has kind of been thrown aside because the Trump administration has other priorities.
--:-- Josh Keating: So, you know, it's not really a surprise to see India kind of hedging, kind of looking to improve its relationship with China.
--:-- Josh Keating: So at least it's not in a feud with two different superpowers at the same time, one of which is right on its borders.
--:-- Josh Keating: And what does Russia want in all of this?
--:-- Josh Keating: There this sort of idea that was very prevalent in sort of Washington policy circles in the last couple of years that there was this like axis of authoritarians
--:-- Josh Keating: You know somebody called it crinks, China, Russia, India, North Korea.
--:-- Josh Keating: It's a axis of authoritarians, an axis of autocrats, an axis of anti-Americanism.
--:-- Josh Keating: And the goal is really simple.
--:-- Josh Keating: It's to destroy global American leadership and sever our alliances and partnerships.
--:-- Josh Keating: These four countries were sort of forming a coherent unit and access.
--:-- Josh Keating: India, you're the biggest democracy in the world.
--:-- Josh Keating: Act like one.
--:-- Josh Keating: Side with the democracies.
--:-- Josh Keating: You're getting in bed with the authoritarians.
--:-- Josh Keating: And I think that China's obviously the kind of senior partner, the one with the most clout among these four countries.
--:-- Josh Keating: But it's been the kind of war in Ukraine that I think has really kind of driven it forward.
--:-- Josh Keating: I mean, since that war began and Russia's faced heavy Western sanctions, lost customers for its exports in the West, you know, it's been selling an awful lot of oil to China and to India primarily.
--:-- Josh Keating: It's been dependent on China very heavily for imports of consumer goods, of electronics.
--:-- Josh Keating: On the battlefield, it's dependent now on munitions and even soldiers from North Korea, on drones from Iran.
--:-- Josh Keating: So I think that you have seen these four countries be kind of driven closer together.
--:-- Josh Keating: These are four countries that have very different ideologies, of course, but there is an alliance of convenience that's sort of driven by the fact that all four are like under heavy U.S. sanctions.
--:-- Josh Keating: And if you think about how the United States might counter such a sphere of influence, you kind of think about something like NATO, right?
--:-- Josh Keating: Or the group of seven or the group of 10.
--:-- Josh Keating: But Donald Trump doesn't seem to be into those alliances terribly.
--:-- Josh Keating: How is he planning on countering what's happening in the East this week?
--:-- Josh Keating: Yeah.
--:-- Josh Keating: I mean, it's funny, like some of the coverage of Xi Jinping's remarks talks about, you know, how he's pushing back against the Western-led political order and groups like NATO and the EU.
--:-- Josh Keating: But like, you know who else doesn't like those institutions?
--:-- Josh Keating: Donald Trump.
--:-- Josh Keating: I mean, from whatever else you can say about Donald Trump, I don't think like a Cold War mentality really describes the way he sees the world.
--:-- Josh Keating: To put it crudely, the foreign policy blob in Washington, the kind of bipartisan, somewhat hawkish national security consensus has seen it, is that we have no choice but to sort of take on these countries all at once, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran.
--:-- Josh Keating: And in fact, that these are all linked, that we have to beat Russia and Ukraine because that will send a message to China that it can't get away with invading Taiwan, for instance, is the message you hear.
--:-- Josh Keating: Trump clearly has a sense that you can deal with the countries separately.
--:-- Josh Keating: One concrete thing that actually did come out this week was they've inked this new agreement on a pipeline deal called the Power of Siberia 2, which is going to bring natural gas from Siberia to China.
--:-- Josh Keating: And this is something Russia's been desperate for for a long time.
--:-- Josh Keating: Basically, this is the gas they used to sell to Europe.
--:-- Josh Keating: Now they can sell it to China.
--:-- Josh Keating: You know, China's been reluctant to sign on to this deal.
--:-- Josh Keating: They don't like being too dependent on Russia for their energy sources.
--:-- Josh Keating: And so this was something people like me always used to point to saying, you know, actually, you know, we shouldn't say that Russia and China are so close.
--:-- Josh Keating: There's still like some wariness in the relationship.
--:-- Josh Keating: Some of that wariness seems to be disappearing.
--:-- Josh Keating: These are two countries embracing each other to an extent I think we haven't seen before and really are being kind of pushed together.
--:-- Josh Keating: And, you know, I think sort of benefiting from a global perception that like, it's the US that's unreliable and acting is kind of like a bully on the world stage.
--:-- Josh Keating: You know, one of the funnier moments of the summit was this like, hot mic moment that happened on Wednesday, where Xi Jinping and Putin were sort of walking along, I think Kim Jong-un was standing next to them.
--:-- Josh Keating: And they're both talking about how like, they're both 72 years old.
--:-- Josh Keating: And we're talking about how like, with modern technology and like, organ transplants, maybe we can live to 150.
--:-- Josh Keating: Just a couple old guys talking about living forever.
--:-- Josh Keating: To me, it indicates a certain level of long-term thinking.
--:-- Josh Keating: These are guys who think beyond four-year election cycles.
--:-- Josh Keating: They're planning the next 70 years of their rule.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Josh Keating, thank you so much.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thanks for having me anytime.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Josh writes for Vox, Vox.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Devin Schwartz and Hadi Mawajdeh produced the show today.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Jolie Myers edited with Laura Bullard on the fact check.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: David Tatascriore mixed the show all by himself.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And we thank him for his service to the Today Explained Project.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's landing your fundraise.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The truth is, banking can do more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Mercury brings all the ways you use money into a single product that feels extraordinary to use.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Visit mercury.com to join over 200,000 entrepreneurs who use Mercury to do more for their business.
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