--:-- [Sound of music and conversation in the background]
--:-- Noelle King: I'm Noelle King alongside John Hudson. He's a national security reporter for The Washington Post. John, President Trump over the past 48 hours has been saying that a ceasefire deal in Gaza is close. Why do you think he's saying that?
--:-- John Hudson: He's saying that because the United States is making another go at it. They have put together a ceasefire proposal that the Israelis have agreed to. Hamas has a number of objections to it. So then the Qataris and the Egyptians, the interlocutors, have worked on a bridging proposal to put it closer to something that Hamas might agree to.
--:-- Noelle King: This deal would be a 60-day ceasefire. During that 60-day period, they would provide a sort of calm in which they'd be able to negotiate an end of the war. It's also a time when they would release approximately 50 Israeli hostages, of which 20 are believed to be alive, 30 of them dead, but they would deliver the bodies.
--:-- John Hudson: The sticking point has always really been whether or not this would be a permanent end to the war. Hamas does not want to give up its remaining hostages, which is pretty much its only form of leverage, if it is not going to result in a permanent end to the war.
--:-- Noelle King: The Israelis have always wanted to hold out an option to continue to resume military action. The Israelis would like an agreement with which Hamas would agree to leave Gaza. And it's always been the firm desire of Hamas leaders to remain in Gaza, even if it means that they will lose their lives.
--:-- John Hudson: What you just laid out has been the case for a while now. The sticking points have been the same for a while now. What is new in July of 2025 is that there are just new levels of desperation, both for Hamas and Palestinians who are in Gaza.
--:-- Noelle King: Five Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza today. The IDF continues to fire on Palestinians who are just trying to get food. To all of this, add another casualty. Irony. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had dinner at the White House last night and made this startling gesture.
--:-- John Hudson: So I want to present to you, Mr. President, the letter I sent to the Nobel Prize Committee. It's nominating you for the Peace Prize, which is well deserved. And you should get it. Thank you very much.
--:-- Noelle King: This I didn't know. Wow. Coming up on Today Explained, President Trump badly wants the Nobel Peace Prize, and he thinks getting a ceasefire in Gaza will land him one.
--:-- [Sound of music and conversation in the background]
--:-- Noelle King: Support for this show comes from strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Or are you stuck in one you've outgrown? Or never wanted in the first place?
--:-- [Sound of music and conversation in the background]
--:-- Noelle King: On Today Explained. I'm Noelle King alongside John Hudson. He's a national security reporter for The Washington Post. John, President Trump over the past 48 hours has been saying that a ceasefire deal in Gaza is close. Why do you think he's saying that?
--:-- John Hudson: He's saying that because the United States is making another go at it. They have put together a ceasefire proposal that the Israelis have agreed to. Hamas has a number of objections to it. So then the Qataris and the Egyptians, the interlocutors, have worked on a bridging proposal to put it closer to something that Hamas might agree to.
--:-- Noelle King: This deal would be a 60-day ceasefire. During that 60-day period, they would provide a sort of calm in which they'd be able to negotiate an end of the war. It's also a time when they would release approximately 50 Israeli hostages, of which 20 are believed to be alive, 30 of them dead, but they would deliver the bodies.
--:-- John Hudson: The sticking point has always really been whether or not this would be a permanent end to the war. Hamas does not want to give up its remaining hostages, which is pretty much its only form of leverage, if it is not going to result in a permanent end to the war.
--:-- Noelle King: The Israelis have always wanted to hold out an option to continue to resume military action. The Israelis would like an agreement with which Hamas would agree to leave Gaza. And it's always been the firm desire of Hamas leaders to remain in Gaza, even if it means that they will lose their lives.
--:-- John Hudson: What you just laid out has been the case for a while now. The sticking points have been the same for a while now. What is new in July of 2025 is that there are just new levels of desperation, both for Hamas and Palestinians who are in Gaza.
--:-- Noelle King: Five Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza today. The IDF continues to fire on Palestinians who are just trying to get food. To all of this, add another casualty. Irony. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had dinner at the White House last night and made this startling gesture.
--:-- John Hudson: So I want to present to you, Mr. President, the letter I sent to the Nobel Prize Committee. It's nominating you for the Peace Prize, which is well deserved. And you should get it. Thank you very much.
--:-- Noelle King: This I didn't know. Wow. Coming up on Today Explained, President Trump badly wants the Nobel Peace Prize, and he thinks getting a ceasefire in Gaza will land him one.
--:-- [Sound of music and conversation in the background]
--:-- Noelle King: Support for Today Explained comes from Chime. Nobody likes fees and complicated banking, says Chime. And Chime gets that, says Chime.
--:-- John Hudson: Chime is a financial technology company that says they understand that every dollar counts. So when you set up direct deposit through Chime, they say you get access to fee-free features, such as free overdraft coverage, getting paid up to two days early with direct deposit, so much more.
--:-- Noelle King: Chime says with qualifying direct deposits you can be eligible for free overdraft up to 200 on debit card purchases and cash withdrawals plus they say you don't need to worry about monthly fees or maintenance fees you can work on your financial goals through chime today you can open an account in two minutes at chime.com slash explained.
--:-- John Hudson: Chime feels like progress chime is a financial technology company not a bank banking services and debit card provided by the bank or bank n a or stride bank n a members fdic spot me eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Timing depends on submission of payment file. Fees apply at out-of-network ATMs. Bank ranking and number of ATMs according to U.S. News and World Report 2023. Time checking account required.
--:-- Noelle King: How does everyone know what everyone knows? It's a state sometimes called pluralistic ignorance or a spiral of silence where everyone mistakenly thinks that everyone else believes something and no one actually believes it
--:-- [Sound of music and conversation in the background]
--:-- Noelle King: I Preet Bharara and this week cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker joins me on my podcast Stay Tuned with Preet to discuss his latest book It's called When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows.
--:-- John Hudson: We discuss what common knowledge can teach us about collective behavior. The episode is out now. Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.
--:-- Noelle King: Support for the show today comes from LifeKit, the podcast from NPR. What's in your life kit? I'm asking.
--:-- John Hudson: They didn't ask that. Every day you have to make choices that might shape the direction of your life, but you can't flip to the back of the book to find an answer key. Instead, you can listen to the Life Kit podcast from NPR.
--:-- Noelle King: Life Kit offers real stories about common issues like relationships, finances, parenting, and your career. If you're looking to move with more intention or just need thoughtful guidance on living better, Life Kit delivers strategies to help you make meaningful, sustainable change.
--:-- John Hudson: From fitness routines to mental resilience, navigating personal goals to tackling burnout, each episode is full of relevant insights and clear takeaways about things we all could use a little help with.
--:-- Noelle King: LifeKit wants to help you approach your own life with confidence and clarity and walk away with a game plan you can implement right away.
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--:-- Noelle King: Michael, why don't we start this way? Go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Michael Kaplow, and I am the chief policy officer at Israel Policy Forum.
--:-- Noelle King: Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have run hot and cold on each other since Trump took office in January. At least that appears to be the case. Where do things stand between them right now?
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Right now, it seems that their relationship is at the high point of what's really only been six months of this term for President Trump. And we've seen ups and downs over the course of their relationship historically.
--:-- Noelle King: But even in the past six months, we've seen significant ups and significant downs. On the one hand, this is now Prime Minister Netanyahu's third visit to the White House in President Trump's second term. And that would indicate that these two men have a closer relationship than any other two leaders on the face of the planet.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: But these visits have not always been so harmonious and they've not always been so great for Prime Minister Netanyahu, particularly the second visit. On that second visit, Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to be blindsided in the Oval Office in front of cameras by a number of things that President Trump said.
--:-- Noelle King: He was blindsided on tariffs, where he had come to Washington ostensibly to try and remove any tariffs that President Trump was going to put on Israel. And not only was he not successful in doing so, President Trump sat in front of the cameras and talked about how the United States gives Israel $4 billion a year, and that's a lot of money, and it should basically get something in return.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Don't forget, we help Israel a lot. You know, we give Israel $4 billion a year. That's a lot. Congratulations, by the way. That's pretty good. But we give Israel billions of dollars a year. Billions. It's one of the highest.
--:-- Noelle King: He was also blindsided in that meeting, perhaps even more worrisome at the time, on the issue of Iran. We're having direct talks with Iran. And they've started. It'll go on Saturday. We have a very big meeting, and we'll see what can happen.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Something that Prime Minister Netanyahu was not pleased with and was certainly opposed to. Now, we know how that turned out two months later. But at the time, it was seen as a pretty significant signal that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu were not on the same page.
--:-- Noelle King: In addition to that, in addition to the awkwardness of that second visit, during President Trump's last visit to the Middle East, he went to Saudi Arabia, he went to Qatar, he went to the UAE. He made a huge production out of those visits talking about how much he loved the region, but he didn't go to Israel, and many people interpreted that as a snub.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Was it? I don't think it was a snub. I think that he went to the region because he wanted to come home with high-profile, easy, quick, visible demonstrations of U.S. strength and demonstrating that he could bring deals back home.
--:-- Noelle King: Ultimately, he thinks of himself as a dealmaker. And there were all sorts of trade deals and promises for investment to be found in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Those were not going to be found in Israel.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: All right. So he took that trip to the Middle East back in May. What's changed since then?
--:-- Noelle King: The biggest thing that has changed is the campaign against Iran, where you had 12 days of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities and personnel. And then you had the very high profile U.S. strike on the three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: And in Israel and certainly within the administration, and I share this assessment, that campaign is viewed as being incredibly successful. And unlike when President Trump traveled to the region, this is a case where Israel presents him with a big and visible win, and he's touting it as much as he can.
--:-- Noelle King: Okay, so Israel gives him a win on Iran. And now, as President Trump is wont, he's looking for another win. On Sunday, he tells reporters that a deal on Gaza is close. Message me on Gaza to Netanyahu. I think we're close to a deal on Gaza. We could have it this week.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: What do you think he's trying to telegraph, and what happens if he's wrong? Does he take it out on Netanyahu?
--:-- Noelle King: There are two things that President Trump has consistently talked about in terms of his vision for the Middle East and what he wants to accomplish. One was preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And whether that has now been done definitively or not President Trump is certainly treating it as if this is mission accomplished and Iran is now not going to get a nuclear weapon.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: The one was a big one and it was deep in granite and it was obliterated It turned out the Atomic Energy Commission said it is obliterated.
--:-- Noelle King: The second thing that he's consistently talked about is bringing the fighting in Gaza to an end and expanding the Abraham Accords and bringing other countries into the circle of normalization. all of which I think in his mind is supposed to lead to the Nobel Peace Prize, which really I think is the goal that he seems to put above almost anything else in the realm of foreign policy.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: And to accomplish that second one, he needs Prime Minister Netanyahu to go along with what he wants because there is no world in which the fighting in Gaza will end unless Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to do it.
--:-- Noelle King: If Prime Minister Netanyahu does not go along with it, there may be consequences, and it may be that President Trump eventually moves on.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: I think that what we're seeing right now from Prime Minister Netanyahu is an effort to really extend the clock. And so the first part of this is a potential 60-day ceasefire in Gaza that will not bring a permanent end to the war, but will give President Trump the opening that he seeks at the moment.
--:-- Noelle King: And if this negotiation is successful, then it also buys Prime Minister Netanyahu two months to figure out whether he wants to keep it going or whether at the end of 60 days the fighting in Gaza will resume.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: And I think for him, he likes extending his options as much as he can. And so buying this time will be important. And it will allow him to give the president something that the president is really demanding from him. And that should keep the heat off at least for a little bit.
--:-- Noelle King: These two men have different motivations when it comes to the Palestinian people. Netanyahu doesn't seem to care about Palestinians. He cares about Israel's security. Trump wants a deal in Gaza because he likes doing deals.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Do you think that Donald Trump cares what happens to the Palestinian people?
--:-- Noelle King: When President Trump speaks about Palestinians, certainly during this term in office, he tends to do it with a degree of empathy that we don't always see from him on other issues.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: We're looking at Gaza, and we've got to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving. A lot of people are—there's a lot of bad things going on.
--:-- Noelle King: It's pretty consistent when he talks about Gaza for him to talk about the fact that Palestinians are suffering and that they deserve better. They deserve a far better life. They deserve the chance to achieve their extraordinary potential.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: We don't often hear that sort of language from Prime Minister Netanyahu and from many Israeli leaders. And the problem is that for any real resolution to Gaza, you need some sort of political vision.
--:-- Noelle King: And President Trump often talks about how Palestinians deserve better lives and should have better lives. But it's rare to hear him talk about how he thinks they will get there politically as opposed to this just being a quality of life issue.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: And we saw it when he announced his Gaza Riviera plan during that first Netanyahu trip to Washington. And we saw it again even last night when President Trump got a question about two states. Do you think that there can be a two-state solution And he didn't answer it. He punted it to Netanyahu.
--:-- Noelle King: I don't know. Ask Mimi that question. You have the greatest man in the world to answer that age-old question to state. Go ahead. Give him your honest answer.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Netanyahu made it very clear that Israel does not see a Palestinian state as part of the Israeli-Palestinian political future.
--:-- Noelle King: I think Palestinians should have all the powers to govern themselves, but none of the powers to threaten us. And that means that certain powers, like overall security, will always remain in our hands.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: So both Trump and Netanyahu need this relationship. Trump needs Netanyahu. Netanyahu needs Trump. Who needs who more, do you think?
--:-- Noelle King: Netanyahu absolutely needs Trump more than Trump needs Netanyahu.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: The things that Trump wants right now from Netanyahu are things that would be nice to have. He wants to expand the Abraham Accords. He wants to have better coordination throughout the region. He wants his Nobel Prize.
--:-- Noelle King: But ultimately, the United States has lots of other issues on its plate. The United States is a global superpower, whereas Israel is not. And the United States can work on all sorts of other things, even if the Trump-Netanyahu relationship turns out to be poor and the coordination turns out not to be what President Trump wants.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: From Prime Minister Netanyahu's side, the United States is indispensable. And there are all sorts of things that he wants that he has to have President Trump for.
--:-- Noelle King: We saw this in practice with Iran, where Israel embarked on airstrikes on its own, but it was clear from the beginning that it needed the United States not only to buy into what Israel was doing, but to actually step in and act.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: So ultimately, Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot afford to be on President Trump's bad side. And I think that that's going to cause him some difficult choices ahead when it comes to Gaza, where there's no question that President Trump wants that war to end.
--:-- Noelle King: Prime Minister Netanyahu also may want it to end, but he wants it to end on very specific and narrow terms. And if the two men end up crosswise on that question, Prime Minister Netanyahu really cannot afford to get into a rift with President Trump.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Michael, thanks so much for your time.
--:-- Noelle King: My pleasure. Thanks for having me.
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--:-- Noelle King: Today's episode was produced by Avishai Artsy and Peter Balanon-Rosen. It was edited by Miranda Kennedy and fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Gabrielle Berbey.
--:-- Michael Kaplow: Our engineers are Andrea Kristinsdottir and Patrick Boyd.
--:-- Noelle King: I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.
