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--:-- Leila Fadel: The 2024 presidential election campaign is in its final stretch. The candidates are mobilizing as they prepare for next week's big test.
--:-- Michelle Martin: In a race this tight, will a debate make a difference?
--:-- Leila Fadel: I'm Leila Fadel, that's Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Venezuela's opposition candidate is on the run after claiming victory in July's presidential election. Much of the world agrees he won, but Nicolas Maduro is holding on to power and accusing the candidate of conspiring against the government.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Will Venezuela's political and diplomatic crisis raise tension with the U.S. even further?
--:-- Michelle Martin: And millions of DirecTV customers will have scrambling for ways to watch their favorite shows and sports when Disney pulled its programming from the distributor over a contract dispute.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Can they resolve this before the U.S. Open ends and Monday Night Football starts? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.
--:-- Leila Fadel: This message comes from BetterHelp. It's only human to ask others for advice, like turning to your barista, hairdresser, or a taxi driver for life advice.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But when you're looking for help about relationships, anxiety, depression, or other clinical issues, they may not have all the right answers.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Instead, get guidance from a licensed therapist online with BetterHelp. Visit betterhelp.com slash NPR for 10% off your first month.
--:-- Michelle Martin: This message comes from NPR sponsor AARP. Where do you see your career in 12 years? What are you doing now to help you get there?
--:-- Leila Fadel: The sooner you start enhancing your skills, the sooner you'll be ready.
--:-- Michelle Martin: That's why AARP has management, finance, and small business reskilling courses, all to help your income live as long as you do.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Because the steps you choose to take today will help you love what you do in the future. Learn more at aarp.org slash skills.
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--:-- Michelle Martin: Labor Day marks the beginning of the final push in the presidential campaign. Some people will start voting in just a few weeks.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Campaigns will be trying to mobilize their voters, and there are the debates.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Now, many people have already made up their minds about who they're going to vote for, but with a race this close, it can be a nerve-wracking time.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So how should voters be thinking about these next couple of months and what should voters be watching out for?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Let's ask NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Good morning, Michelle.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Okay, so with Labor Day behind us, that's the traditional start of the presidential campaign, although of course we know it's been going on actually for like two years now.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: The election looks close. So if somebody were to say to you, hey, I'm looking at these polls every day. Is that going to tell me what's going to happen?
--:-- Michelle Martin: What would you say?
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: I'd say stop it. Polls exist. They're largely pretty good. We even conduct our own to get a better sense of how people are feeling about the candidates and society.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But all you really need to know about the horse race right now are two things.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: First, Harris is performing better than Biden was in the seven key swing states everyone watching.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And second, the race is very close within the margin of error and that's not likely going to change very soon.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: That it. So now this campaign is really about mobilization and a couple of big tests coming up for the candidates.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Okay, about those big tests coming up. One of those is the debate one week from today.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: How important is that? And what are you watching for?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Well, I think the debate is going to be really very important, especially for Kamala Harris.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: She's had a great first month. Now she's starting to face ramped up attacks from Trump because she's narrowly ahead in some key places.
--:-- Michelle Martin: It's likely to get pretty ugly because Trump has to try and pull her down.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Pay attention to some of the attacks Trump is trying right now because we're likely going to hear a lot about them at the debate next week.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Things like Harris's shifts on some positions and trying to tie her to the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: So this debate will be a test for Harris for sure, but it's also, I have to say, carries some risk for Trump too.
--:-- Michelle Martin: I mean, think about the last debate against President Biden, Trump's flaws were really overshadowed because of Biden's struggles.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: But Trump repeatedly lied, spread baseless conspiracy theories, and made a number of unserious or incoherent policy proposals.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So if Harris has a solid debate, the focus really should then be on Trump in a way that he doesn't want.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: We're going to likely hear about a number of the issues voters care about in that debate.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Which ones do you think are motivating voters and could possibly make the biggest difference this fall?
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Yeah, I mean, it's the issues that we've been hearing about, that the candidates have been focused on the economy and inflation, immigration, abortion rights.
--:-- Michelle Martin: In many respects, Republicans have advantages on the fundamentals in this election.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Unemployment's low, growth has been strong, inflation has come down.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But people continue to view the economy negatively, even if not as much as a year ago.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: And that's because prices are still higher than they were pre-pandemic.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But negative feelings about Trump are arguably as strong or stronger than those feelings about the economy.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: And it's why Harris has been able to make a strong case that she's the one who represents change in this election.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Before we let you go, in an analysis published this morning on NPR.org, you write that another advantage that Democrats feel they have is related to turnout.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Say more.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Well, Democrats have a lot more offices, paid staff and volunteers on the ground in swing states than the Trump campaign.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Abortion rights ballot measures will be voted on in 10 states, including Arizona and Nevada, both swing states.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And the Harris campaign believes those will boost turnout with key voter groups.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Republicans, on the other hand, Trump has a deep well of support and tens of millions will certainly go to the polls to vote for him.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But his turnout operation is a question mark because the Republican National Committee has turned over a lot of it to a group with very little track record of success.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: And Trump keeps talking down things like mail-in voting, which limits his campaign.
--:-- Michelle Martin: That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: You're welcome.
--:-- Michelle Martin: The U.S. seized the government plane of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, saying the purchase of it violated U.S. sanctions.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Yeah, Maduro insists he won the election in Venezuela in July, but international observers and much of the world, including the U.S., reject his claim.
--:-- Michelle Martin: They back the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, who says he actually got the most votes.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So Maduro is cracking down on dissent, and a Venezuelan judge issued an arrest warrant for Gonzalez accusing him of sabotaging the election and conspiring against the government.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Freelance reporter Manuel Rueda has been following this story.
--:-- Michelle Martin: He was in Venezuela for the recent presidential election, and he is with us now from Bogota, Colombia.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Good morning.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So it's not every day that a country basically repossesses another country's presidential jet.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: What did the Venezuelan government say about this?
--:-- Michelle Martin: So basically the Venezuelan government is calling this an act of piracy.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: They issued a statement yesterday where they said they're going to take legal measures and try to get compensation for the plane, although it's not clear where they could head for this kind of compensation, where they could seek resource.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Well, especially since, as we said, the U.S. says that this is a violation of sanctions.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: The purchase of it was undercover, too.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So to begin with, well, I'm just trying to, could you just bring us up to date here? Like, how did we get to this point?
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Yeah, absolutely.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So after the election took place on July 28, the Venezuelan Electoral Council, which runs the elections and is controlled by the ruling Socialist Party, declared Maduro the winner.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: But opposition activists in Venezuela collected thousands of tally sheets printed out by voting machines.
--:-- Michelle Martin: They scanned them, they posted them online, and those records show pretty convincingly that González won the election by a large margin.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Possibly two-thirds of the vote went to González.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So that's basically what's bothering the Venezuelan government and making it lash out against González and other opposition leaders.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: And I think with this plane being confiscated, the Biden administration is trying to sort of show its teeth and signal to the Maduro government that they're serious about enforcing sanctions against the Venezuelan government, which could be sanctions over more serious issues eventually, such as oil projects in Venezuela, Venezuelan oil exports.
--:-- Michelle Martin: I see.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Okay. So now I understand that there's a warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez's arrest.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Do we have any sense of, the opposition candidate, as we said, do we know where he is or what his next plan is?
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Gonzalez has been seen in public for more than a month and that's probably because he was protecting himself from this type of situation from getting arrested.
--:-- Michelle Martin: You know, he might escape Venezuela as has been the case with some other opposition leaders in the past and try to continue to make his claims from abroad.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: However, the most popular opposition leader in Venezuela is Maria Corina Machado, the politician who basically ran González's campaign after she was banned herself from participating in the election.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And she's still in Venezuela and is promising to stage more protests and keep up the pressure against Maduro.
--:-- Michelle Martin: As we've been talking about all this, do we have any sense of how the general public is reacting to all this?
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Well, you know, more than 1,600 people have been arrested in Venezuela in protests following the election.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So people are very worried about what's happening.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Media outlets have been censored. Even the social media platform X has been banned.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So it's a difficult moment in Venezuela.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: And many people are also thinking about leaving the country because of this.
--:-- Michelle Martin: All right. That is freelance reporter Manuel Rueda. Manuel, thank you so much.
--:-- Manuel Rueda: Absolutely.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Millions of sports fans watching ESPN over the weekend suddenly saw their screens black out.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Yeah, DirecTV subscribers saw cable channels owned by Disney go off the air in the middle of the fourth round matches of the U.S. Open.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And it's all because of a contract dispute between DirecTV and Disney, which owns ESPN, ABC and Disney+.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Here to tell us more about all this is Alex Weprin.
--:-- Alex Weprin: Good morning.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Okay, your screen going black in the middle of the match, okay, not a way to win friends but what is the snag here?
--:-- Alex Weprin: What have Disney and DirecTV been negotiating about?
--:-- Michelle Martin: So every few years media companies like Disney and TV providers like DirecTV they kind of renegotiate their contracts just to keep their channels on the air.
--:-- Alex Weprin: This time, however, thanks to cord cutting, it's a little more significant for both parties.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Disney wants to try and get as much cash as possible, keep their channels as widely available as possible.
--:-- Alex Weprin: DirecTV is trying to change how they sell TV. They want to start selling TV in genres like sports and news and kids.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And so that's kind of caused this dust-up between the companies, and Disney channels are now dark.
--:-- Alex Weprin: Who is most affected by this outage?
--:-- Michelle Martin: I mean, I can imagine where some people who are saying, well, okay, just switch to another streaming service. Is that possible?
--:-- Alex Weprin: Well, I mean, some DirecTV subscribers will be able to.
--:-- Michelle Martin: They have about 11 million between their streaming service and their satellite TV service.
--:-- Alex Weprin: However, there are many DirecTV subscribers, in fact, the DirecTV over-indexes in this area, that live in rural America that don't have access to high-speed internet because the cable companies never built out infrastructure there.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So while some subscribers would be able to switch, although as anyone who's tried to do so can tell you it's not exactly easy or simple, there are actually millions of DirecTV subscribers for whom it's really difficult and they may not have any other good options.
--:-- Alex Weprin: Do we have any sense of how these negotiations are going?
--:-- Michelle Martin: I mean, it does seem kind of like a power move to pull the programming off the air in the middle of programming.
--:-- Alex Weprin: But do we have any sense? And I know that's a difficult question because obviously by definition, negotiations take place behind closed doors and so forth.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But do we have any sense of it? Like how soon these channels could be restored?
--:-- Alex Weprin: You know, typically if the companies are close at all, they will try to avoid a blackout.
--:-- Michelle Martin: The fact there is a blackout suggests that they are pretty far apart on key issues.
--:-- Alex Weprin: I will say that the start of football season is in one week.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And I think that will be kind of the impetus to get these two sides in a room to kind of start negotiating and cut a deal.
--:-- Alex Weprin: Because the NFL is the king of TV and I think they both kind of want ESPN back in DirecTV homes before the NFL season.
--:-- Michelle Martin: It was just last year that Disney's channels went dark during a dispute with the cable carrier Charter Spectrum.
--:-- Alex Weprin: So what does this tell us about the power of a company like Disney?
--:-- Michelle Martin: It wasn't that long ago that I think Disney would say they were operating from a position of strength, and DirecTV would have said the same thing.
--:-- Alex Weprin: I actually think they're both operating from a place of weakness right now.
--:-- Michelle Martin: They're both really impacted by cord cutting.
--:-- Alex Weprin: The dynamics of TV are changing dramatically.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And I think the fact that we're seeing more of these blackouts, like Charter last year and DirecTV this year, suggests that these companies are really finding the current moment existential.
--:-- Alex Weprin: They're trying to figure out how to survive in this new TV environment.
--:-- Michelle Martin: That's Alex Weprin of The Hollywood Reporter. Alex, thanks so much for sharing this reporting and these insights with us.
--:-- Alex Weprin: Thank you.
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--:-- Michelle Martin: And that's Up First for Tuesday, September 3rd. I'm Michelle Martin.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And I'm Leila Fadel. Your next listen is Consider This from NPR.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Children are being vaccinated at lower and lower rates. What does that mean for deadly infectious diseases like measles?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Listen to Consider This from NPR.
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--:-- Michelle Martin: Today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Luis Clemons, Jan Johnson, and Mohamad ElBardicy.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Lindsay Totty.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent. And our technical director is Stacy Abbott.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Join us again tomorrow.
--:-- Michelle Martin: On Up First.
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