--:-- Scott Simon: Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated ahead of Hurricane Milton's landfall this week in Florida. Officials say that's one reason the death toll is lower than expected.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And I'm Aisha Roscoe. This is Up First from NPR News. We talked to some of the people who fled.
--:-- Scott Simon: You got to be a realist and I'll always run if it's looking like it could kill us.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Also a mass gathering in Washington, D.C. today organized by people connected to the January 6th rally, the one that preceded the attack on the Capitol. And why did mortgage rates climb even though the Fed lowered its target interest rate?
--:-- Scott Simon: So please stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend. This message comes from NPR sponsor Adobe. Introducing the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI-powered PDF spaces.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Need to turn 100 pages of market research into five insights with a click? Templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal? Or an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report? You can do all that with the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.
--:-- Scott Simon: More than 10 people have died as a result of Hurricane Milton. Authorities say that number would be much higher if more people had stayed in their homes. NPR's Adrian Florito has been talking to residents about their decision to stay or go, and he joins us now from Sarasota, where Milton made landfall.
--:-- Adrian Florito: Thanks for being with us, Scott. Residents who left are now returning home, and what do they find? Well, some are finding damage and destruction, others that their homes were spared.
--:-- Scott Simon: I visited Deborah and Stephen Lortz at their house yesterday. As soon as the storm passed on Thursday morning, they rushed out of the shelter that they'd evacuated to. They were eager to see if their house had survived.
--:-- Adrian Florito: They drove around downed trees and power lines. We came around the waterway and mixed our way through and got here and she was here. Their house was fine. The roof lost just one shingle. One little piece of shingle, which is just a miracle.
--:-- Scott Simon: The Lartzes are both Floridians in their 60s, Scott. They have lived through a lot of hurricanes, but they had never evacuated for one, they told me, until now. Because this looked different than any of the others.
--:-- Adrian Florito: It had a beautiful eye, and the eye wall was, like, thick. And we saw that, and we said, we're not staying.
--:-- Scott Simon: Adrian, how do they feel about their decision to leave?
--:-- Adrian Florito: Well, they said they would not have changed it. Because you've got to be a realist. And I'll always run if it's looking like it could kill us.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Scott, officials are saying that the fact that so many other people evacuated just like them is one reason there weren't more deaths. Because a lot of homes were flooded in this storm. They were damaged or destroyed.
--:-- Scott Simon: And, of course, you also spoke with people who chose not to leave their homes despite the warnings.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Yeah, in fact, I spoke with the Lortz's neighbors who live just a few doors down. Osa Atoy and her partner Joey decided to ride it out.
--:-- Adrian Florito: Everybody's situation is different, and everyone needs to make the best decision for themselves. Osa said that she and her partner did a detailed assessment of their house. It's made of concrete. It's got a brand new metal roof.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: They weren't worried about flooding because they're 16 feet above sea level. Which sounds like nothing to other people but that like one of the highest points in the city of Sarasota.
--:-- Adrian Florito: People they know gave them flack for deciding to stay. But we also as a family made decisions and felt safe staying in our home in our particular situation.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Osa says that she knows that for some people, though, you know, even for some of her neighbors with different types of houses or at slightly lower elevations, this would not have been the right choice.
--:-- Adrian Florito: Of course, the worst did not come to pass with this hurricane. Are experts worried, Adrian, that this might affect how people respond in the future when storms come ashore?
--:-- Adrian Florito: You know, I asked Ioannis Zissis that. He's an engineer at Florida International University. He researches how to build more hurricane-resistant homes. I'm concerned. I'm a little bit afraid that the average homeowner, the next time they ask them to evacuate, they might think of, oh, you know, last time nothing happened.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: No, it doesn't work like that. We should keep taking seriously these extreme events. Especially, he says, because these storms are getting stronger and people's houses might have structural weaknesses that they're not even aware of.
--:-- Adrian Florito: NPR's Adrian Florito in Sarasota. Thanks so much.
--:-- Scott Simon: Thanks, Adrian. Yom Kippur is the traditional Jewish Day of Atonement. Christian leaders called for people to gather today at the National Mall for Day of Atonement as well, women in particular.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Though the event is not expected to get violent, its leaders played a big role in the Stop the Steal movement four years ago. NPR's domestic extremism correspondent Odette Youssef is here to tell us more about it.
--:-- Odette Youssef: Thanks for being with us. The organizer of this event called for a million women to gather at the mall. How do they use the term Esthers? What's that about?
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Yeah, so to understand this, we have to look to the Hebrew Bible. You know, this is a reference to the Book of Esther, which tells the story set in the 5th century BCE of Esther, the Jewish wife of the Persian king.
--:-- Odette Youssef: And according to this story, Esther became aware that one of the king's courtiers was organizing a pogrom against the Jews. And so she's urged by her relative, a man named Mordecai, to use her position of influence to thwart that plot. And she does.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So today's rally is happening on the Jewish Day of Atonement, Yom Kippur, and it's calling on Christian women, the Esthers and the men in their lives, the Mordecais, to fast and pray and gather on the Malford, the deliverance of the nation.
--:-- Odette Youssef: And really, Scott, this is the national culmination of dozens of state-based rallies that were held back in the spring at state capitals under the tagline, Don't Mess With Our Kids.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And what do they want to communicate with that slogan, Don't Mess With Our Kids?
--:-- Odette Youssef: Yeah, it's not very specific, right? And I think maybe that's by design to sort of roll in people who've been activated around several disparate issues in the last few years.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So we're expecting the Moms for Liberty types who've built influence through anti-LGBTQ campaigns will also likely see people who want to see a national abortion ban. And then there are people who believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory.
--:-- Odette Youssef: I spoke with Matthew Taylor. He's a senior scholar at the Institute for Islamic, Christian and Jewish Studies. And he says that these narratives that inspire fear over children being abused can be dangerous.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: The way that they are ratcheting up the rhetoric about the threat to children in and of itself I think is dangerous in the way that it creates a permission structure that says we have to do whatever we can to stop this group because otherwise our children will suffer or die because of them.
--:-- Odette Youssef: So it'll be interesting, Scott, to see how this energy that was really developed in the last four years at the local level with these school board fights and library fights translates when it comes together nationally in these weeks before the election.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And who organized this event? The organizers are Jenny Donnelly and Lou Engel. Both of them are connected to a network known as the New Apostolic Reformation, or NAR.
--:-- Odette Youssef: And the NAR is a collection of non-denominational charismatic churches and leaders. Some of them call themselves prophets and apostles. And this network has been very closely tied in with former President Trump.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And Taylor, the religious scholar that we heard from earlier, says that when Trump became president, He played a key role in sort of shifting the seat of power within the religious right to emphasize this NAR network.
--:-- Odette Youssef: The last four years has in many ways completely changed the landscape of the religious right in America in the Trump era to the point where many of the most active religious leaders in our politics right now are people that 90 percent of the country have never heard of.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So, again, this event isn't explicitly political, but Taylor says that in 2020, there were similar gatherings that they held in D.C. ahead of that election. And that helped build energy for Trump.
--:-- Odette Youssef: And after Election Day, that energy was directed towards Stop the Steal efforts and, of course, ultimately January 6th. This time, political violence researchers don't expect another January 6th at the Capitol.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: But there's closer attention now to the narratives that are unifying Trump's supporters and the question of where that energy will go if he loses.
--:-- Odette Youssef: And Pierre Zedet Youssef, thanks so much for being with us, Zedet.
--:-- Scott Simon: You know how we always say the Federal Reserve's actions affect home mortgage rates? Well, they do, but not always precisely. Like this week when mortgage rates rose even though the Fed cut its target last month.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: NPR personal finance correspondent Laurel Walmsley is here to explain.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: Hi, Laurel. So mortgage rates went up this week even though interest rates are lower. What in the world is going on here?
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: That's right. The latest data from Freddie Mac showed that the average 30-year mortgage rate had increased to 6.3% this week. That's about a quarter point higher than it was two weeks ago.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: That's probably an unwelcome surprise to the folks who are finally coming off the sidelines to start shopping for a home. So why is this happening?
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: It's because mortgage rates aren't tied to the Fed's interest rate, but instead they follow a different number. They yield on a 10-year Treasury bond.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: And that went higher this week for a number of reasons. Got it. So it's not set by the Fed? I mean, that's what I thought.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: No, there's different numbers floating around, and it's influenced by the Fed, but it's not said by the Fed.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: And also keep in mind that the local lenders who actually give you your mortgage need to cover their costs and make a profit, so they add their own percentage on top.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And the specific mortgage rate that you would get would depend on your own factors, like your credit score and the size and type of loan that you're getting.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: But overall, aren't mortgage rates lower than they were recently?
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Yes, and that is the big picture to take away from this still. Even with this uptick, mortgage rates are more than a full point lower than they were this time last year.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: And lots of people are taking advantage of that. They refinancing their mortgages if they bought a house in the last couple of years when rates were higher.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: The lower rates mean they can potentially save hundreds of dollars a month.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: So it sounds like mortgage rates are sort of a moving target right now. Is there any sense of where they'll settle?
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And that's what I really need to know. Where are they going? You and me both.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: So I posed that question to Lawrence Yoon, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. And here's what he said. I think the new normal, maybe 6% mortgage rate, which we are very close to. If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5% mortgage rate. Or we could be unlucky, he said, and the rate goes back up towards 7%.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So this kind of predicting is hard, even for economists. But looking around at several forecasts, many of them have rates staying above 6% through the end of this year and falling to about 5.8% next year.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: So if you do want to buy a home, you might not want to wait to see if rates will drop. Because if they do, you could always refinance to a lower rate. But if they rise, it just gets harder to afford a home.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So has this had any effect on the housing market? Like, are more people shopping for homes?
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: Well, it's still a little early to tell since buying a home can take months from shopping to actually closing. But there are some indications that the lower rates are shaking things a bit looser.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So like what?
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: Well, for instance, more people are listing their homes for sale. There are 23% more existing homes on the market than there were a year ago.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And there's a lot of new homes for sale, too. That's really good news for buyers who have not had much to choose from.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: And home sellers tend to be home buyers as well. So those folks might be entering the market soon.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And some sellers have probably been waiting for mortgage rates to drop because it's hard to give up the super low rates that many locked in during the pandemic, even if they're outgrowing their current home.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: And then another indicator is that applications for mortgages have ticked up a bit, 8% higher than a year ago, which also suggests that more people are preparing to buy a home.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: It's fall now. School has started. Is this a hot time for home sales?
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: Well, definitely not as much as spring and early summer are. So it could be March before we really see a rebound get going here.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Fannie Mae is predicting that home sales could be 10 percent higher next year, coming off of the very low levels that we've been seeing.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: And as I said, this all goes to show how the Fed can influence mortgage rates, but it does not set them.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: That's NPR's Laura Walmsley. Thank you so very much.
--:-- Laurel Walmsley: You're welcome.
--:-- Scott Simon: And that's up first for Saturday, October 12th, 2024. I'm Scott Simon. And I'm Ayesha Roscoe.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Michael Radcliffe produced today's podcast with help from Fernando Naro, Martin Patience, and Kira Joaquin.
--:-- Scott Simon: Danny Hensel directed. Our editors were Catherine Laidlaw, Gigi Duban, Andrew Sussman, Raphael Nam, and Matthew Sherman.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Hannah Glovna is our technical director with engineering support from Misha Hines, Andy Huther and Ted Meebane.
--:-- Scott Simon: Evie Stone is our senior supervising editor. Sarah Lucy Oliver is our executive producer with help this week from Julia Redpath.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Jim Kane is our deputy managing editor.
--:-- Scott Simon: Oh, we've been wondering. Tomorrow on the Sunday Story, I'll talk with author Ta-Nehisi Coates about his new book, The Message, a collection of essays, including one on the conflict in the Middle East.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And while you're waiting for that episode to drop, If you can listen to more news, interviews, sports, music, you know, even just some fun, go to stations.npr.org to find your local NPR station. Don't delay. Do it now. Let's wait for them, Aisha.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Just, no, we'll sit here. We've got time.
