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--:-- Michelle Martin: Good morning. Happy 4th. Why am I the only person with a patriotic outfit? I don't understand. I don't need an outfit, Michelle. The flag is on my heart.
--:-- A Martinez: President Trump is planning a 4th of July signing ceremony for his big domestic policy bill. So we'll be signing with those beautiful planes flying right over our heads. But is the bill a political win for Republicans or a long-term liability?
--:-- Michelle Martin: I'm Michelle Martin with A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- A Martinez: The Pentagon has paused weapons shipments to Ukraine, saying its stockpiles are low. That leaves Ukraine without crucial munitions like air defense missiles. Can Ukraine defend itself against escalating Russian attacks without them?
--:-- Michelle Martin: And more immigrants are expected to leave the U.S. than come in. Economists are warning that that could be a major drain on the economy. If we decide as a country that we don't want to welcome immigrants, that's a choice we can make. I just want us to make that choice with our eyes wide open.
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--:-- Tamara Keith: Later today, President Trump will get the Independence Day signing ceremony he's been demanding. This is for the mega bill he and Republicans in Congress pushed over the finish line yesterday afternoon.
--:-- A Martinez: Speaking under the wing of Air Force One as he departed for a victory rally in Iowa, Trump said the celebration would include a military aircraft flyover. And it's going to be a great day. So we'll be signing with those beautiful planes flying right over our heads.
--:-- Tamara Keith: The one big, beautiful bill, as President Trump has been calling it, contains the president's entire domestic legislative agenda.
--:-- A Martinez: With more, we're joined now by NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith. So, Tam, what is the president saying about this bill's passage?
--:-- Tamara Keith: Well, as you might imagine, he and his allies are taking a victory lap. Trump was in Iowa last night for a rally and said with this bill, he kept every major promise he made to voters when he ran for office last year.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Very simply the one big beautiful bill will deliver the strongest border on Earth the strongest economy on Earth the strongest military on Earth and ensure the United States of America will remain the strongest country anywhere on this beautiful planet of ours.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Trump was to borrow a word he likes to use rather braggadocious about his success last night asking, has anybody ever had a better two weeks?
--:-- Tamara Keith: Now, 48 hours ago, though, there was some drama. I mean, it looked like that bill and the president's timeline were in trouble. So what happened?
--:-- Tamara Keith: Well, there were quite a few Republican holdouts, but President Trump turned on the charm and then he turned up the pressure. And ultimately, all but two Republicans in the House who had been holding out folded.
--:-- Tamara Keith: At a press conference after the bill passed, Majority Leader Steve Scalise gave Trump all the credit. Donald Trump absolutely was our closer, and Donald Trump never stopped. Every day was there in the fight. Who do I need to call? What do I need to do? No president more directly engaged.
--:-- Tamara Keith: This was a pivotal moment in Trump's presidency, and he and his party rose to it. It took all-night debates and arm-twisting and passed with incredibly narrow margins in both the House and the Senate.
--:-- Tamara Keith: And the question now is whether it becomes a long-term political win or more of an albatross. Oh, okay. Sounds like you're talking about the midterm elections.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Indeed. Next year, Republicans in swing districts will have to defend their votes. And so far, public polling has found this bill to be pretty unpopular.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Democrats have had a lot of success in branding it as a tax cut for the rich at the expense of the poor and the vulnerable.
--:-- Tamara Keith: A senior White House official conceded in a call yesterday with reporters that the president and Republicans are going to have to educate the public on what's actually in the bill, including things that are popular, like no tax on tips or expanding the child tax credit.
--:-- Tamara Keith: And another thing to watch is the Medicaid cuts in the bill, which an independent analysis found would cause nearly 12 million people to lose coverage.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Those will phase in more slowly, which may give Republicans some political cover because people often don't draw a direct line between things happening in their lives and something politicians in Washington passed years earlier.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Still a lot of uncertainty, though. Various global conflicts, the U.S. tariff policy. What challenges lie ahead, though?
--:-- Tamara Keith: Well, it depends on how you feel about tariffs. Early next week, Trump's tariff pause is set to end, and his administration has not had much success striking trade deals.
--:-- Tamara Keith: So he says he's just going to start sending letters to countries telling them how high their tariffs will be going forward.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Economists say tariffs are going to hit American consumers, but Trump is unconcerned.
--:-- Tamara Keith: Trump is also burning up the phones to various world leaders trying to wind down the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
--:-- Tamara Keith: And then there's Iran, all of which is to say a president's work is never done.
--:-- A Martinez: NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, thanks.
--:-- Tamara Keith: You're welcome.
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--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Ukraine says it needs crucial munitions such as air defense missiles as Russia escalates its airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, including a large-scale attack on the capital Kyiv overnight.
--:-- A Martinez: The Pentagon says the U.S. might not have enough stockpiles and has paused some weapon shipments already promised to Ukraine.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Meanwhile, President Trump called Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Thursday and is expected to speak to Ukraine's president later today.
--:-- A Martinez: With us now to discuss all of this is NPR's Ukraine correspondent, Joanna Kakisis, who is in Kiev.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: And a warning, we're going to hear sounds of explosions and gunfire during this report.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: So, Joanna, did President Trump make any progress in convincing his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to end the war in this phone call?
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Well, President Trump said he did not make progress, and that aligns with what the Kremlin told state-run media in Moscow.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin will not agree to a ceasefire until what he calls the root causes of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are addressed.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Root causes. That sounds like something we heard before. Yeah, that usually shorthand for the Kremlin claim that it invaded Ukraine in 2022 to prevent the country from joining NATO, the Western Security Alliance.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Now, the Kremlin has said NATO could use Ukraine as a launch pad to attack Russia.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Now, Ukraine and its allies have firmly rejected this claim. And also, Vladimir Putin himself has suggested that all of Ukraine belongs to Russia.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Now, did Putin and Trump discuss the military aid the Pentagon says it's withholding from Ukraine?
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Well, the Kremlin said that the weapons pause was not discussed during this call.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: The Pentagon says the reason for the pause is that it's been reviewing stockpiles and discovered certain weapons, especially air defense missiles, are running low.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: However, the shipments were already on their way to Ukraine, and they have reportedly stopped in Poland, according to NPR's Tom Bowman.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Now, Ukraine is trying to find a new source for some weapons and munitions, including making their own.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Ukrainian security analyst Hanna Schell has told me that cannot happen quickly.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Ukraine is now developing different types of munitions because we understand that we don't have reliable partners anymore.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: But at the same time, we cannot just do it in one month. And A, there are items like missiles for American-designed Patriot air defense systems that only the U.S. can provide, at least for now.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Now, how have Ukrainians reacted to this pause?
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Well, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he wants to speak to Trump about it.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: The two leaders are set to talk by phone later this morning.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Because Russian airstrikes are now more frequent, Ukraine is burning through air defense supplies to protect its cities.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: So, A, I recorded air defense teams last night here in Kiev trying to shoot down Russian drones and missiles flying over our neighborhood.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: We heard explosions all night. There were injuries, fires, lots of damage.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: And this morning, the air had this burning smell.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: And now on Thursday, a city that's less protected than Kiev was attacked, the city of Poltava.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: It's about a four-hour drive east of Kiev.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: We spoke with Olcha Tukova, a 34-year-old mom there.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: She saw a drone flying over her car as she was picking her child up from kindergarten.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: It is becoming more and more dangerous in Poltava.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: Of course, we have a lot of people fighting, but everyone says that we really lack weapons, air defense, to defend ourselves.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: So it's really obvious to her and other Ukrainians that air defense is crucial now, especially as the Kremlin appears determined to continue its war on Ukraine.
--:-- A Martinez: That's NPR's Joanna Kakisis in Kiev. Joanna, thank you.
--:-- Joanna Kakisis: You're welcome.
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--:-- Scott Horsley: Since its founding, the United States has been a nation of immigrants. Most Americans have ancestors who came from somewhere else, either by choice or by force.
--:-- A Martinez: As we mark this Independence Day, a big demographic shift is underway.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Forecasters say for the first time in more than six decades, more immigrants are likely to leave the U.S. than come in this year.
--:-- Scott Horsley: And that could be a drag on the economy.
--:-- A Martinez: NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. So, Scott, what's behind this shift?
--:-- Scott Horsley: A, we know that illegal immigration across the southern border has pretty much dried up.
--:-- Scott Horsley: The Trump administration has also been narrowing a lot of legal pathways for immigration, like the refugee program and temporary visas.
--:-- Scott Horsley: So a joint forecast from the left-leaning Brookings Institution and the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute projects there will be at least 2.5 million fewer immigrants coming into the country this year than in 2024.
--:-- Scott Horsley: And Brookings' Wendy Edelberg says at the same time, we're seeing more immigrants leaving the U.S. either through deportation or voluntarily.
--:-- Scott Horsley: It stands to reason that if you make the United States a really inhospitable place for immigrants then immigrants particularly those with really good outside options those immigrants will leave.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Edelberg expects the net outflow of immigration to increase next year.
--:-- Scott Horsley: The big GOP spending bill that just passed includes a lot more money for immigration enforcement and makes other changes designed to make coming to the U.S. less inviting.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Yeah, one thing that has historically drawn people to the U.S. is the strong economy.
--:-- Scott Horsley: So what does it mean if that flow is suddenly reversed?
--:-- Scott Horsley: Immigration has been helping prop up the U.S. economy. We would not have enjoyed the strong job gains in recent years had it not been for the big influx of foreign-born workers.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Some of those prominent companies in the U.S. have been started by immigrants.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Edelberg says if that pipeline is choked off and more immigrants head for the exits, the U.S. will be left with fewer workers, fewer people spending money, and a smaller economy overall.
--:-- A Martinez: I feel strongly that, look, if we decide as a country that we don't want to welcome immigrants, that's a choice we can make.
--:-- A Martinez: I just want us to make that choice with our eyes wide open.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Now, the Trump administration has a theory that there are a lot of native-born Americans sitting on the sidelines who could be lured into the job market to take the place of the missing immigrants.
--:-- Scott Horsley: There's not a lot of historical evidence of that, but that's the gamble the White House is making here.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Well, if more people keep leaving the U.S. than actually coming in, I mean, what happens?
--:-- Scott Horsley: Does that population drain just continue?
--:-- Scott Horsley: Not necessarily.
--:-- Scott Horsley: The forecasters at Brookings and AEI think after a couple of years of out-migration, there will be enough pushback from employers and ordinary citizens that we will start to see some of these policies reversed.
--:-- Scott Horsley: And once again, the flow of immigrants into the U.S. will gradually return.
--:-- Scott Horsley: But, you know, that's not guaranteed.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Edelberg warns that once the U.S. pulls up the welcome mat, immigrants who, by definition, have a lot of get up and go might decide to take their talents elsewhere.
--:-- Scott Horsley: While we're doing this grand experiment, other countries, if they're clever, will say to the most highly productive, best immigrants, no, come here. We will welcome you with open arms.
--:-- Scott Horsley: So even if the U.S. eventually changes course, it may not be so easy to win the immigrants back.
--:-- A Martinez: You know, Adam Smith published his famous economics treatise, The Wealth of Nations, back in 1776, just a few months before the Declaration of Independence was signed.
--:-- A Martinez: In the two and a half centuries since then, immigration has been a great source of wealth for this nation.
--:-- A Martinez: We'll see if that continues.
--:-- A Martinez: All right.
--:-- A Martinez: NPR's Scott Horsley.
--:-- Scott Horsley: You're welcome.
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--:-- A Martinez: And that's up first for Friday, July 4th. Happy Independence Day.
--:-- Michelle Martin: I'm Amy Martinez.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And I'm Michelle Martin.
--:-- A Martinez: Just a few decades ago, the majority of Americans trusted the same news sources, but these days news outlets don't even agree on a shared version of reality.
--:-- A Martinez: We are increasingly split into separate bubbles, absorbing different information that paints conflicting pictures of the same events.
--:-- A Martinez: This weekend, the Sunday story takes us back to the moment when our shared media ecosystem split to find out if we can sew it back together.
--:-- A Martinez: Tune in this weekend right here in the Up First feed.
--:-- A Martinez: Today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Rafael Nam, Ryland Barton, Janaya Williams, and Lisa Thomson.
--:-- A Martinez: It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas.
--:-- A Martinez: We get engineering support from Zo van Ginhoven.
--:-- A Martinez: Our technical director is Stacey Abbott.
--:-- A Martinez: And our Executive Producer is Jay Shaylor.
--:-- A Martinez: Have a great weekend.
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--:-- A Martinez: Ritual vitamins are made with bioavailable clinically studied key ingredients and a patented nutrient delivery system that aims to help your body use the nutrients you're getting.
--:-- A Martinez: Ritual's essential multivitamins are made with you and your body in mind and backed by scientific research filled with key ingredients as well as the essence of mint so you can enjoy taking your vitamins.
--:-- A Martinez: Get 25% off your first purchase when you visit ritual.com slash NPR.
