--:-- [Aisha Roscoe speaking]
Aisha Roscoe: Welcome to The Sunday Story from Up First. I'm Aisha Roscoe.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Tonight, Hollywood's biggest stars gather for the Academy Awards, the annual celebration of all things movies. If you've been listening to The Sunday Story for a while, you know I love horror movies. So I was happy to see the horror genre getting some love this year.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: The film The Substance was about the terrifying outcome of an age-reversing drug, and it's been nominated in five categories, including Best Picture and Best Actress. And I also saw Conclave. It's a visually stunning film. Acting is amazing. It's about the selection of a new pope.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And of course, I had to watch Wicked with my kids. We had a lot of fun. If you haven't seen it, you don't have to look to the Western sky that's in the movie. It's kind of a prequel to The Wizard of Oz, and it's got a whopping 10 nominations this year.
--:-- [Break music plays]
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Beyond that, I haven't been able to see many of the movies this year because I'm always working. But our friends over at Pop Culture Happy Hour have seen them all. It's their job.
--:-- [Break music continues]
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And we're going to hear their predictions coming up right after the break.
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--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Help provide life-saving care around the world. Learn how to donate today at doctorswithoutborders.org slash NPR.
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--:-- Aisha Roscoe: We're back with The Sunday Story from Up First, and today we're sharing an excerpt of an episode from our friends at Pop Culture Happy Hour.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: It features all of their predictions of who will be the big winners at tonight's ceremony.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] A misunderstood witch, an unknowable singer-songwriter, a dejected TV personality, and the Dean of Cardinals will all walk into the Dolby Theater on Sunday night. Because it's that time of year again. Yes, it's the Oscars.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: It's an interesting crop of Best Picture, Director, and Acting nominees, and we're talking about who we think will win and who we think should take home those shiny gold statues.
--:-- Aisha Harris: [speaking] I'm Aisha Harris.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I'm Stephen Thompson.
--:-- Aisha Harris: [speaking] And on this episode of NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour, we're offering up a guide to this year's Oscars.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Joining us today are our fellow Pop Culture Happy Hour hosts, Linda Holmes.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Hey, Linda. Hello.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] And Glenn Weldon.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Hey, Glenn. Hey, Aisha.
--:-- Aisha Harris: [speaking] It's great to be here with all of you to talk about the Oscars for our big Oscar show.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] We are going to obviously spend some time on Best Picture first, since that's the big ticket award of the night.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] And a couple big blockbusters earned nominations.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Steven, do you want to set those up for us?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Sure. We've got Wicked set before the events of The Wizard of Oz. This musical is the origin story of the Wicked Witch of the West. It stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo.
--:-- Cynthia Erivo: [speaking] What a good clip. Perfect clip. I knew that was going to be the moment that we chose. Never let it be said that that movie does not end on a strong note.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] The other big, big, big blockbuster, you've got Dune Part 2. Timothy Chalamet returns as Paul Atreides, who must now contend with a group called the Harkonnens who have seized control of the planet.
--:-- Timothy Chalamet: [speaking] May thy knife chip and shatter.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I was definitely thankful for those recaps for Dune Part 1 before I watched this one. Did you try to read the Wikipedia page about Dune Part 1 before going into Dune Part 2? Because I was more lost than I was going in.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Try the books. If you think it's daunting, try the books.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Yes, yes. Well, okay. There's also a handful of smaller but no less ambitious movies that were nominated.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] And to some degree, I think this crop, we all really liked and admired quite a few of these.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So, Linda, can you give us the rundown on these films?
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Absolutely. Conclave is a fun and twisty look at the secretive process by which a pope is replaced. Ralph Fiennes plays the cardinal leading the process.
--:-- Ralph Fiennes: [speaking] If you want to defeat Tedesco. This is a conclave, Aldo. It's not a war. It is a war.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] And world's most smooth segue.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] In The Substance, Demi Moore plays an aerobics instructor who wants to stay in the spotlight. So she turns to a strange black market drug.
--:-- Demi Moore: [speaking] Remember, there is no she and you. You are one. Respect the balance and you won't have any more inconveniences.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Yeah, exactly like picking a pope. It's basically the same thing. It's pretty much something.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Nickel Boys is the story of two black boys who form an unshakable bond at a segregated reform school in the Jim Crow South.
--:-- Coleman Domingo: [speaking] There are four ways out of Nickel. Serve your time or age out. Court might have been if you believe in miracles. You could die. They could kill you. You could run.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Those are all very different, but like I said, very ambitious in their own ways. So it's nice to see them in the mix here, for sure.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And then, of course, we've got the more traditional Best Picture nominees here. Glenn, tell us about this group.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Yeah, we've got one of those biopics, A Complete Unknown. Timothy Chalamet playing a young Bob Dylan. The movie follows his rise in the music world.
--:-- Timothy Chalamet: [speaking] How many roads must a man walk down before you call him a man? Six. Six is the answer.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] We've got The Brutalist. Adrian Brody plays a fictional Jewish-Hungarian architect who relocates to the United States after World War II.
--:-- Adrian Brody: [speaking] I would like to draw something and present it to you. You'd like to win the commission.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Yeah. And, you know, for the past several years, we've seen international features nominated in the Best Picture category. And so this year, I'm Still Here actually earned a nomination.
--:-- Fernanda Torres: [speaking] It's set in 1970s Brazil when it was under a military dictatorship. And it tells the story of a mother dealing with the disappearance of her politician husband.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] And finally, we've got two movies that have been making lots of waves. Waves? We're calling them waves now. Okay. We'll talk a little bit more about that in a second. But they've been on the scene since way back at Cannes, the Cannes Film Festival last spring.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Stephen, what have we got here?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Well, we've got Anora, Sean Baker's movie about an enterprising sex worker who marries the immature son of Russian oligarchs.
--:-- Mikey Madison: [speaking] So you want to get married to me, Vanya? You want me to be your little wifey? Yeah? Yes.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And then there's Emilia Perez. It is about a trans-Mexican cartel boss who disappears from the criminal underworld and eventually reunites with her family after creating a new life as a woman.
--:-- Carla Sofia Gascon: [speaking] Changing the body changes society. Changing society changes the soul. Changing the soul changes society. Changing society changes it all.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Okay, well before we truly dig into who we think will and should win here, it's important for us to sort of briefly touch on the controversies that have arisen during award season.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] There's the big one. Very soon after the nominations were announced in January, some old racist and Islamophobic tweets made by Amelia Perez star Carla Sofia Gascon resurfaced by journalist Sarah Hagee.
--:-- Carla Sofia Gascon: [speaking] Now, in those tweets, the actress used slurs and other disparaging language to refer to a wide range of demographics and people, including Muslims, Chinese people and George Floyd.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Gascon apologized via an official Netflix statement, but continued to discuss it in interviews. And she suggested there was some kind of larger conspiracy at work against her.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Now, to a lesser degree, the Amelia Perez team has also faced some flack for using AI cloning to widen Gascon's singing range.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Amelia Perez led the Oscars race this year with 13 nominations. But I'm actually curious if you all think that these controversies have impacted this film's chance of taking home Best Picture.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Linda, let's start with you and what you think will win.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Well, I do think that these controversies are going to affect Amelia Perez. And that's partly because I think there are a lot of people who had a lot of misgivings about this movie anyway.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And these controversies have sort of given them an opportunity to say, okay, cool, I'm going to rule that one out then.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] I think if people were more excited about the movie, it probably would have less of an effect. But I do think that is likely to have an effect.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And that left me predicting that The Brutalist would win Best Picture.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] It is kind of the most traditional Oscars-y movie remaining. It is a heavy historical drama. It has a really strong lead performance from Adrian Brody, who's kind of a very beloved awardsy type of actor.
--:-- Adrian Brody: [speaking] You'd like to win the commission.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] You know, the director, Brady Corbet, has been widely praised for making it on a relatively small budget compared to its sweep.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And despite the fact that there have been a couple of questions raised about use of AI, I think those things are gonna fall away.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] And I think The Brutalist will win.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Just to back up a little bit, in case you haven't heard about the AI controversy around The Brutalist, leads, Adrian Brody and Felicity Jones, were reportedly their voices were fed into some AI software.
--:-- Adrian Brody: [speaking] I would like to draw something and present it to you. You'd like to win the commission.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And director Brady Corbet said in a statement that only their Hungarian dialogue was enhanced by the AI.
--:-- Felicity Jones: [speaking] If you want to defeat Tedesco.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But also the film's editor said that generative AI was used as inspiration for some of the architectural drawings that are done by Adrian Brody's character.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So Stephen, what are your thoughts on what will win?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I feel almost word for word the same way Linda does. I feel that The Brutalist is going to wind up reaping a lot of the benefit of some of the blowback against Amelia Pettis.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] It's a great man, historical epic, running more than three and a half hours in length. What could be more Oscars than that?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Yeah, yeah. I mean, one thing I will note is that it's also important to remember that the Oscars are ultimately decided through rank choice voting.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] And so it doesn't have to be everyone's favorite film. It just has to be enough people's maybe even second favorite film.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I think that is maybe what hurts Emilia Pettis the most.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] There may be a passionate contingent putting it first, but there are going to be a lot of people who rank it 10th. Not just me, and I'm not even an Oscar voter.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Yeah. But see, I think the ranked choice voting is going to help Onora.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] I think a lot of people feel very favorably disposed toward that film. If they don't rank it first, they're going to rank it second or third.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think the buzz around Onora has been growing. I think this is a real chance for a scrappy little movie like Onora to take it home.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Yeah. And that's where you and I align, Glenn. I also think Anora is going to win.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] It won the Producers Guild of America Awards. And since 2010, every winner of the PGA Award has also won Best Picture with three exceptions.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] And then there was also one year where there was a tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] 12 Years a Slave wound up winning the Oscars.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] So like, I feel like the odds are kind of in Anora's favor, but we shall see.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So we all said who we think will win, but like, who do we think should win?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] For me, I think Anora should win.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] I agree. Now, there are several other films in this field that I really dearly love. And I could make a case for Conclave. I could strangely make a case for the substance.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] In spite of some plot issues that I had with it, a movie that has really stuck with me and I suspect will continue to stick with me, but Anora to me is made with such verve.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And for me, it just felt like such a victory lap for Sean Baker, who's been making great movies for a long time now without necessarily a ton of major awards consideration.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] For me, this is a film that I really, really dug.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And it's not, Again, I'm going to keep harping on this point. It's not a typical Oscar movie.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I don't know.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Well, Linda, I know you were not a huge fan of this, and we don't have to get into why.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And also, I love that we have different opinions on this show.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So I am curious as to what you think should win.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] I ultimately went with Nickel Boys. It's the one that I thought was the most emotionally rich and satisfying.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] It's also the one that I think was the most innovative in terms of filmmaking.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] People have talked a lot about the first person point of view, camera work here from the director, Ramel Ross.
--:-- Ramel Ross: [speaking] I think that's really interesting.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think there are some very interesting decisions about what to give away and what to withhold.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think he got some really wonderful work out of the actors in this film.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] If we're going to have a big party where we honor people making movies, I want it to be something like this.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] You know, for me, everything else, there was some reason not to pick it, whether it was, you know, controversy or, you know, for me, the Nora thing of sex workers who sort of turn out to just want to be hugged to me is not that interesting and actually is a pretty familiar trope from film.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] This is what I picked. I picked Nickel Boys.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] As did I. I thought I was going to be out here all alone, but I'd join you, Linda. I'd like to see the Academy rewarding any innovation, any tweaking of the format.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And it's not just that it's told through the character's eyes.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] The use of that could have easily been just a distracting gimmick, right?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But it's used so smartly to serve the story and to serve the emotions of the story.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And not for nothing, this film has a closing montage that's like five, 10 minutes long that also could have been confusing, disorienting, but the director, Romel Ross, is going back to his experimental film roots.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] That montage took you by the hand. It guided you along in such a confident and assured way.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] You knew exactly what was happening, which is yet another reason of the fact that we didn't get a nomination for directing or cinematography or editing.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Cinematography. Yeah. How did this not get nominated for cinematography?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] You know, what are we awarding here?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Outstanding achievement of these 10 films, this is the outstanding achievement.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I would be so happy to see this one.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] It has stayed with me months later, and I think it's just such a beautiful film that I need to rewatch.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I definitely need to rewatch, and I think it rewards rewatch.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So, and we should also note that Nickel Boys is actually released by Amazon MGM Studios, and Amazon supports NPR and pays to distribute some of our content.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] You're listening to The Sunday Story.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] More Oscar predictions when we come back.
--:-- [Break music plays]
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] This message comes from Netsuite. Real-time insights and forecasting, you're able to peer into the future and seize new opportunities.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Download the CFO Guide to AI and Machine Learning for free at netsuite slash story.
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--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] We're back with The Sunday Story from Up First as we hear more Oscar predictions from the team over at Pop Culture Happy Hour.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So another note I want to make is that we are going to be making these next predictions before the Screen Actor Guild Awards have come out at the time of this recording.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So ordinarily, as I did with the best picture, I would have kind of like dug into my bag and looked, oh, who won SAG Awards?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And that would have helped inform my opinions here.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] We're just out here being brave.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] That's all. We're being brave.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] We're out here naked. Just sheets of the wind.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] We're doing that.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] How will we ever make an accurate prediction from this field?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I have no idea.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So let's move on to the acting categories and let's start with the lead actress category.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Steven, who is nominated here?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Cynthia Erivo for Wicked.
--:-- Cynthia Erivo: [speaking] Erivo plays Elphaba in this origin story about the Wicked Witch of the West.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Sorry, you just got it every time, every time.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here.
--:-- Fernanda Torres: [speaking] Torres plays a mother and activist whose life is upturned when her politician husband goes missing during the military dictatorship in Brazil.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Mikey Madison for Anora.
--:-- Mikey Madison: [speaking] Madison plays a New York sex worker who marries the son of Russian oligarchs.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez.
--:-- Carla Sofia Gascon: [speaking] Gascon plays the titular Emilia Perez, a trans cartel leader who leaves the criminal underworld to begin a new life.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] She's the first openly trans actress or actor of any gender nominated in an acting category.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And then we've got the presumed frontrunner.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Demi Moore for The Substance.
--:-- Demi Moore: [speaking] Moore plays a TV aerobics instructor who turns to a mysterious black market drug to stay young.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I need you. Because I hate myself.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] You gotta you gotta get ready it's our big it's our big night come on they're gonna love you so much all right.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I'm pretty sure that we all think that Demi Moore is going to walk away with this award.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Linda, why do you think she'll win?
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] Well, I mean some of it is just forecasting based on you know awards already won and sort of critical reaction already received but also I think she has exactly the kind of story that often does well at the Oscars.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Demi Moore has been around for a really long time.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] She talked about this at the Golden Globes.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] She was originally kind of pigeonholed as a like a pop movie actress, as she put it, a popcorn actress.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] And I think she's been really good in a number of different things for a long time, but not the kinds of things that necessarily got her awards recognition.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] You know, first of all, people tend to think it's very brave when you go through some sort of body transformation and do something that looks ugly and gross, especially if you are a woman who came up as a kind of conventionally beautiful woman.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So that tends to weigh in her favor.
--:-- Linda Holmes: [speaking] I also think she's just one of those people who's worked with a gazillion people over the course of her career who all seem to have a reasonable amount of affection for her.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] She doesn't seem to be somebody who has, for some reason, made enemies in her long time in Hollywood.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And sometimes that really helps just to have been around forever, acting with a ton of people, working in a ton of projects.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think that's going to do it. I think she will win.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] If you're looking for any kind of dark horse in this race, in terms of somebody who has the potential to win, I wouldn't 100% rule out Fernanda Torres, who gives a pretty magnificent performance in I'm Still Here, who really carries that film, and who is a very, again, a veteran actress who has done a ton of great work.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I don't think she will win against Demi Moore, but this is definitely one of the most heralded performances of the year and one that I could see slipping through.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Well, and I do want to add, you know, it's easy now to look at this and be like, oh yeah, it's going to be Demi Moore, obviously ho-hum.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But like, go back to reading this script, right?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Go back to the moment when this script shows up.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And you look at it and it's like, I mean, now it feels like, Demi Moore is going to cakewalk to the Best Actress Oscar for this horror movie in which she winds up as a blob of tissue by the end.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I mean, the unlikelihood of getting recognized for horror, the unlikelihood of getting recognized for something as strange as this movie is.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] This is not something you would take thinking like I'm going to cakewalk to an Oscar for playing this part.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Glenn, who do you think should win the award?
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] I think I have a sense of who you're thinking here.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Yeah, it's to me. It's Will and Should.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I mean, for all the reasons we've talked about.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Plus, it's the only shot this very weird movie has at a major award, one of the big five.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] So, yeah, let's give it.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I absolutely think she's deserving and I will be thrilled if she wins.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] However, in this category, I decided to go with Cynthia Erivo and I'll tell you why.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Yeah, I get that. Wicked has sort of fallen out of most of the major Oscar conversations at this point in its life.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I think that's a shame because I don't think it's a perfect movie.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think a lot of its charm comes from the source material and the performances.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But to me, the last 15 to 20 minutes of that film, which include obviously Defying Gravity, which obviously became immediately a meme and a TikTok sound.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And, you know, there were things of like a dog on a broomstick going up into the sky with It's Me. It's Me.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think that sequence is good enough that that is what a movie star who is a good actor is supposed to do.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And when you put on top of it the fact that I think it is a hell of a performance of a really good song, like, what am I asking for, right?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Like, what am I asking people for if not this?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] What am I rewarding if not this?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I picked Cynthia Erivo.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I have no regrets. None at all.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I love it. I love that.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Solid pick.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Steven, who do you think should win?
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I went with Mikey Madison.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] For Anora.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think the movie falls apart if she doesn't give a great performance.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think she manages to bring just huge amounts of charisma and energy.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] This performance could so easily have dipped into caricature, and maybe Linda thinks it did dip into caricature.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I don't know.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But I really found this to be just like a very vibrant and committed performance from somebody I can't wait to see in more movies.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] No, I think she's wonderful.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think she is absolutely wonderful.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think the charisma that you talk about is 100% real.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] My issue is with the ending.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think the ending sells out the character and sells out what the movie was doing at the beginning, but it's only the ending that irritated me.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Yeah, I get that.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Yeah, I get that.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I mean, Stephen, you and I are aligned. I also would really love to see Mikey Madison take this home.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I've been a huge fan of hers ever since she was in Better Things, the great Pamela Adlon show as one of her daughters.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I've seen some criticisms of the film as being like a movie where we don't learn much about the Mikey Madison character and that she's just this one note, you know, sex worker.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I disagree with that hard.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think that just because we don't learn every single detail about her backstory, that doesn't mean that she's not a fully realized character.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think that there are just these so many great moments and interactions that hint at both her social class, her status in life.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I think the ending actually is one of the great endings.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But look, we're not here to deliberate that.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I'm just here to say that I loved Mikey Madison.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And look, I'd be happy if Cynthia Erivel won.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I'd also be happy if Demi Moore won.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I probably had my Anora expectations raised too high.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] That's probably part of what happened.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] That's also possible.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] All right. Well, let's move on to the nominations for actor in a leading role.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Glenn, why don't you set that up for us?
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] Sure We got Coleman Domingo for Sing Sing Domingo plays an incarcerated man who finds purpose by acting in a theater troupe.
--:-- Coleman Domingo: [speaking] We got Ralph Fiennes for Conclave Fiennes plays the cardinal who is managing the process of finding a new pope.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] We've got Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice.
--:-- Sebastian Stan: [speaking] Stan plays a young Donald Trump establishing his career in real estate and his relationship with the attorney Roy Cohn.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] And then we have the two presumed frontrunners, Adrian Brody, as we've talked about for The Brutalist.
--:-- Adrian Brody: [speaking] Brody plays a visionary Hungarian architect who moves to America to rebuild his life after World War II.
--:-- Glenn Weldon: [speaking] and timothy chalamet for a complete unknown he plays bob dylan
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I'm gonna go first here because I guess I'm the only one who is convinced that timothy is probably gonna pull off a rami malek here
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I was looking at sort of this entire crop of nominees and unlike with the best actress category there's not really any that are like transformative in like the traditional way
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] In the Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill. Or, you know, the whale, Brendan Fraser, like that kind of thing. DiCaprio and the Revenant. Like, that's not happening here.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And so I think for me, we can never underestimate the enthusiasm of the Academy's boomer and raucous membership, as well as its tendency to love actors who play real people.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Again, Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Will Smith in King Richard, Gary Oldman, Cillian Murphy, Daniel Day-Lewis, Colin Firth. On and on and on. Like over the last 15, 20 years, a lot of the winners in this category have been playing real people.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And I don't know if the Dylan cosplay on SNL hurt or helped Xiaomei's chances.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think maybe it's possible they just kind of neutralized them.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I feel as though Timothy has a very good shot and I would not be surprised to see him wind up with the Oscar.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I think one thing I would add to that is that he has been campaigning his rear end off for months and months.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And that does come into play.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] I mean, you talked about SNL, where he appeared on SNL as the host and the musical guest performing Dylan songs.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] Like, he is really trying to win this award.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] And that does factor in.
--:-- Stephen Thompson: [speaking] But for him to win, he would have to escape the gravity
