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--:-- Noel King: There are fewer than 30 days until the 2024 election, and on Today Explained, we've been bringing you reporting from the swing states. There are seven of them, they could go either way, and they will decide the election. Today, Arizona. Where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a dead heat, and an initiative that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution is on the ballot. You'll see it as Prop 139. It's asking voters whether or not the time for getting an abortion legally should be extended. Pro-choice Arizonans worked for more than a year gathering those signatures. Now tonight, organizers say they gathered 50% above the required minimum. If Democrats do have sweeping wins this year in Arizona, I think they can write a thank you letter to the abortion access people for it. Oh, girl. That's coming up.
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--:-- Noel King: Today Explained. Battleground States. Arizona. My name is Cameron Sanchez. I'm a reporter with KJZZ News in Phoenix, Arizona, and I cover state politics here. How did abortion end up on the ballot in Arizona this year?
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: Well, it was a long process. Essentially, we had a law in the books that was from 1864, which was a territorial era ban, actually. And it was pretty expansive. Arizona's highest court today backing a law that bans nearly all abortions and carries up to five years in prison for doctors who perform one. So that was pretty shocking to, I think, the general public.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: I just I didn't think that they would do this. I really didn't. And I'm devastated. I mean, women have no choices now. It's such an archaic law created by men to control women's bodies. I just feel like we're going back in time.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: Democrats and independents worked really hard as soon as Roe v. Wade got overturned. And it was kind of, I think, inevitable that something would be on the ballot. So there was another law and there was some debate over which one would take precedence. But that one was created just a few years ago in the state legislature, which is a 15-week ban. So that is the law of the land now. And I think there was some hope from the Republican Party that that would be a good enough compromise. But proponents cleared the signature threshold to get it on the ballot by a lot. They actually broke a record. It was hundreds of thousands of signatures.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: In a nutshell, Proposition 139 would essentially codify Roe v. Wade. It would allow abortions up to fetal viability. You can also have an abortion if the health care provider thinks it's necessary for the health of the mother, physical or mental health. And that is something that Republicans have sort of jumped onto and said, well, that's a catch-all. And that could be used to have abortions up until the moment of birth. It doesn't mean that the woman's health is at risk. It could mean that she is stressed or experiencing anxiety. The Supreme Court said that it could include anything that goes to her well-being. And also that there's a possibility that doctors would want to claim it, even if it's not necessary, because that's how they get paid.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: Now, do people actually believe that in the general public? I'm not sure. It doesn't seem to have lessened the amount of support for the ballot measure, but it was a tactic that has been used, saying that it goes too far.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: All right. Now, you've spoken to voters about Proposition 139. What do they think about it? A few weeks ago, I actually went out and spoke to voters on the street and I went door knocking. I talked to about 20 people, Democrats and independents, about their views on this upcoming presidential election and the issues that matter the most to them. And when abortion would come up, I heard a lot of people saying that they were going to support it. Oh, yeah. So women's rights, I guess, include some abortion, education, being taught about reproductive rights. You know, I think to not get pregnant is the first step. And then obviously, if you do get pregnant, you should have access to abortion. And even that it was a top issue or a reason for them to come out to the polls, which, of course, is what Democrats are hoping for.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: And I didn't really hear anyone in opposition to it, maybe because of the demographic, the independents and Democrats I was speaking to. But from what I've heard so far, it seems to have enough support to pass. Fifty-something percent is the last number that I heard, I believe around 58 percent, which obviously would be more than enough.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: I wouldn't go so far as to say it's the top issue for most voters. I think it's a top issue for many voters. And that kind of brings me to another point, because I think that a Republican tactic we've seen for the past year or so is they want to put something on the ballot that's a carrot to get people out to the polls, too. So the overturning of Roe v. Wade has made abortion the huge topic this year. And ever since that decision, it was inevitably going to be something that Democrats used. And if you go to Arizona and you listen to any campaign ads pretty much guarantee that if you listening to a Democrat campaign ad they going to talk about reproductive health care They going to talk about abortion They going to talk about IVF Our little IVF miracle Sorry she not yours anymore What are you talking about? Who are you? I'm your Republican congressman. We made IVF illegal. And we're not letting you criminals raise her.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: And everyone across the board from the state level to the county level is milking that angle. But Republicans wanted to have something on there that would get their voters out, that would have their turnout increased, hopefully to the same degree. Under Harris, over 10 million illegally here. A quarter of a million Americans dead from fentanyl. Brutal migrant crimes. And ISIS now here.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: And so I think we've seen border security sort of be a parallel or comparable issue in a way. And on Arizona's ballot this year, there will also be a border security measure. Proposition 314, a proposed measure that would make it a state crime for non-U.S. citizens to enter Arizona at any location other than the port of entry. So that would allow it to be enforced by local law enforcement. And at least in the Republican Party, there's definitely a lot of support for that measure. And it's drummed up a lot of media attention in sort of a similar way.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: Okay, so you have two big competing issues. One of them is abortion. One of them is immigration. Arizona, of course, is a border state. What about the electorate in Arizona makes these two top issues?
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: Well, one thing that Arizona stands out on is we have a very large Latino population. Now, Democrats at the top, like Harris, for example, maybe are not doing as well with Latino voters as they would like. However, when it comes to Latino voters, we've seen both border security and abortion be top issues. For conservative Latino voters, border security and immigration and fentanyl are all top issues, and they kind of get tied together in the conversation here. And they're also tied together in that ballot measure that I mentioned. There's some mention in there about fentanyl dealing and trafficking and how to secure the border against that.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: So Arizona is a very much a changing state. We have a lot of people coming into Arizona and sort of changing the demographics, shifting them from what they used to be as recently as five or six years ago. We have a lot of people coming in from California, and you've seen Arizona going from red to purple, which was unfathomable a decade ago. Now another swing straight victory call for President-elect Joe Biden late last night after a race that was too close to call for more than a week. The swinginess of Arizona started around, I would say, 2016, 2018. And so what I'm referring to is Donald Trump. And that really changed everything.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: There is sort of a huge difference now in the Republican Party. We've got the Trump loyalists, the MAGA Republicans, the Freedom Caucus members, and then the other kind of Republicans. We call them sometimes here the McCain Republicans after, of course, John McCain. And that has been difficult, I think, for the party to reconcile. And when we've seen these elections where you have to get statewide support, the Republican candidates who are MAGA, they do well in their primary elections. But when it comes to the general elections, that's not the same case. They're not appealing to the same population.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: And so we saw that in the last governor's race, for example, with Carrie Lake going against Katie Hobbs. And now we have a Democratic governor for the first time in a minute. And that's shifted everything all over again because we've got Democrats at the top level. We've got a Democratic secretary of state. We've got a Democratic attorney general. And, you know, before 2016, there was nothing of the sort.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: Based on what you've heard from voters, based on the reporting you've done around polling, do you think that reproductive rights could be the way that Democrats win in Arizona this year? If Democrats do have sweeping wins this year in Arizona, I think they can write a thank you letter to the abortion access people for it. Oh, girl.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: This is something that has really stirred up the Democratic base. This is something that is getting people out, not just Democrats, but also independents. which is key in Arizona. But those independents, as we all know, are independent for a variety of different reasons. They could be anywhere on the political spectrum and they're not a homogenous group. But having Roe v. Wade was such a staple in everyone's lives for decades. And the upheaval of that on the eve of this important election in a presidential election, it's got people thinking and it's got Democrats pushing so, so hard on abortion.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: You can't escape from the messaging of it. It's everywhere. There's no one here who could possibly not be aware that it's going to be a key issue this year, that it's going to be on the ballot, that it's something the candidates are campaigning on. You would have to be living under a rock.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: I definitely believe that it's a top issue, partly because Democrats are doing their darndest to make it a top issue, and that if they can control all the levels of government that they want to, it will likely be because of that, Because the people who show up at the polls and vote Democrat on their ballots, maybe they were there because of that abortion measure. Maybe they showed up that day because they wanted to vote for that particular issue. You know, the rest of the ballot was just there to be filled out.
--:-- Cameron Sanchez: That was Cameron Sanchez. She covers state politics for KJZZ, Phoenix's NPR station. You can find lots of their very good reporting at KJZZ.org.
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--:-- Noel King: Up next, how abortion is one of the most motivating issues, not just in Arizona, but across the entire country. Support for Today Explained comes from Built Rewards. These days, it seems like everybody has a rewards program. You swipe your card and you get one cent on the hundred dollars. But with your rent, frequently you just pay month after month. You never get anything from it other than that roof over your head. Not anymore, says Built Rewards. Built Rewards says it lets you earn points on your rent. By paying rent through Built, they say you can earn flexible points that can be redeemed toward hundreds of hotels and airlines, perhaps a future rent payment, your next Lyft ride, and so much more.
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--:-- Noel King: We're back with Caroline Kitchener. She's a national reporter who covers abortion for The Washington Post. So, Caroline, after the Dobbs decision, there was this question of what that would mean for national electoral politics. What did it mean in the 2022 midterms and what might it mean in 2024?
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: In the 2022 midterm election, you really did see voters come out and support abortion rights in a big way. And you saw that on a variety of different ballot initiatives where people could vote directly on abortion. This morning, abortion rights advocates are celebrating after voters in red state Kansas rejected an amendment that would have removed the right to an abortion from the state's constitution. An Ohio ballot measure that would have made it harder to protect abortion rights in that state has failed. The fight over abortion is now shifting to a push to enshrine it in Michigan's constitution.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: Now, the question that is on everybody's minds is, is that direct support for abortion going to translate to candidates? And more specifically, is it going to translate to the presidential candidate? Because what we did see in 2022, and this is, I feel, an aspect of abortion in that election that we didn't hear as much about, is that many of the governors that directly signed these abortion bans, they did extremely well. Governor Brian Kemp fending off a challenge from Stacey Abrams for another four years in the governor's mansion. Governor Abbott going on to a third term here in the state of Texas.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: These are obviously conservative states, but you really didn't see the governors who signed these very strict abortion bans take a hit. We heard in the first half of the show, Caroline, that in Arizona, residents will vote on whether or not to protect abortion access in the state's constitution. Other states are doing that also this year, as I understand it. Which other states are doing that?
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: Ten states have abortion directly on the ballot this year. It's huge. I mean, this is going to be such an important thing to watch that will really reshape the landscape for abortion access in this country. There are several states that have total abortion bans that could be forced to lift them. Missouri, we have South Dakota, both have total abortion bans. The biggest one I think that everyone will be watching in terms of abortion access is Florida. Florida has, you know, it's the third most populous state and most abortions are banned there and have been since the spring.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: So the significance of Florida in terms of the abortion landscape nationally really can't be overstated. There are, you know, before the ban took effect, there were 80,000 abortions that took place in Florida in any given year. The closest clinics are in North Carolina and those are already swamped from all the other bans. So that one is really, is crucial for abortion access nationally. But it's also a really tough ballot initiative because you have to get over 60 percent. And that's a really high bar, even for something that's popular.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: I was very eager to find someone who was really a pro-choice but Republican voter, inclined to vote for Trump, who was really wrestling with their decision because of abortion. And I think it's telling that I sort of struggled to find that person. What I found instead was folks that cared very deeply about abortion and had personal stories about abortion. These were not just people who were pro-choice for no particular reason that they could voice. They had real personal and emotional connections to the issue, but who sort of said it's kind of a no-brainer that they were still going to vote for Trump.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: And, you know, I think for them, they felt like, you know, he doesn't really care about this issue. Like, look at his flip-flopping, like, I'm just not worried. But I am strongly for choice, and yet I hate the concept of abortion. But you would not ban it? No. Do you believe in punishment for abortion? Yes or no, as a principle? The answer is that there has to be some form of punishment. You would sign a federal abortion... I said this, I said this, I want to do what's right. And we're looking and we want to do what's right for everybody. Of course, I would, I would press them and remind them that, you know, he did appoint the three justices that led to the Supreme Court ruling, but they sort of generally felt like that was that was done That was in the past and he going to do anything else And they were convinced by the things that he has said
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: I think it is important to say at this point in the conversation that there is a lot that President Trump could do if elected on abortion outside of a national abortion ban. I think one thing that folks aren't really talking about is you know, the appointments to a few really key federal agencies like Health and Human Services. I mean, that is what the anti-abortion groups are banking on. They, you know, for them, it's all about these appointments. And if Trump wins and appoints a pro-life, a strong pro-life leader who cares very deeply about this issue to lead HHS, there is a medley of things that that agency could do to really limit abortion nationwide.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: Oh, I mean, they're extremely upset about that. I talked to many of them right after, you know, each round of comments that he's made along these lines. I mean, he went so far as to say that... Very good. I'm very strong on women's reproductive rights. the IVF very strong. I mean, we're leaders in it. And these people feel, they feel betrayed. They feel like they are being taken for granted. But in the end, they're still planning to vote for him because what they recognize is that, you know, one candidate is sort of flip flying and hem-hawing and the other is saying, very passionately and emotionally that she is eager to do all that she can to restore Roe and to protect abortion in any way possible with her authority as president.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: And the anti-abortion folks, they see that. And I think they realize that they would probably have a lot more to worry about under Harris. So they're willing to vote for Trump anyway.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: And so how are Democrats trying to mobilize voters around abortion? Other than drawing that contrast in places like debates and advertising, what are the Dems up to? Well, I think you see attention being drawn to particularly heart-wrenching stories. I mean, you've seen the Harris campaign really draw attention to specifics. You want to talk about this is what people wanted? Pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term, suffering from a miscarriage, being denied care in an emergency room because the health care providers are afraid they might go to jail and she's bleeding out in a car in the parking lot? She didn't want that. Her husband didn't want that. They just cut an ad with Hadley Duvall, who is a rape survivor from Kentucky, who did an extremely powerful ad for Governor Andy Beshear. last year. He calls it a beautiful thing. What is so beautiful about a child having to carry her parents' child?
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: You also saw Vice President Harris go down to Georgia and talk about two deaths that were recently reported related to abortion bans. And we will speak her name. Amber Nicole Thurman. Amber Nicole Thurman. Amber Nicole Thurman. That's right. And she had her future all planned out. So I really think the campaign is trying to put a face on this issue and make it personal and make it emotional. and draw attention particularly to the real difficult health consequences.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: One of the big surprises of the 2022 midterms was even though Dobbs had been handed down months earlier, exit polling showed there were people who were voting strictly on abortion. They were there voting in the midterms because of the end of Roe. It's now been two and a half years. Are any voters picking the president based on abortion alone or on abortion as their top issue? I mean, we've seen polling that has showed that among young women voters, this came out in a Times poll about a month ago, abortion had overtaken the economy as their top issue.
--:-- Caroline Kitchener: You know, what I am hearing from folks on the Democratic side on the campaign is that they are seeing this issue more as a way to mobilize the base and get them out to vote and make sure that they come out than they are to like persuade a Republican voter who's inclined to vote for Donald Trump. That's not to say that that person doesn't exist. And, you know, there are no Republicans who would otherwise vote for Trump that are going to vote for Harris because of abortion. I have yet to talk to one, but, you know, I guess, you know, we'll have a better idea of that after Election Day.
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--:-- Noel King: Caroline Kitchener is a national reporter for The Washington Post. She covers abortion. Victoria Chamberlain covers it all. She produced today's show, Amina El-Sadi edited. Andrea Christian's daughter and Rob Byers, engineers. next week on Swing State's Wild and Wooly Wisconsin. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Support for the show comes from Mercury. What if banking did more? Because to you, it's more than an invoice. It's your hard work becoming revenue. It's more than a wire. It's payroll for your team. It's more than a deposit. It's landing your fundraise. The truth is, banking can do more. Mercury brings all the ways you use money into a single product that feels extraordinary to use. Visit mercury.com to join over 200,000 entrepreneurs who use Mercury to do more for their business. Mercury. Banking that does more.
